Monday, June 8, 2015

New York Yankees Select Kyle Holder #30 in MLB Draft

UPDATE: With the 30th pick the New York Yankees took shortstop Kyle Holder from the University of San Diego.

The New York Yankees sat patiently and watched as 15 players were drafted that the team would have undoubtedly loved to add to their farm system. With the #16 pick the Yankees selected James Kaprielian. Kaprielian is a RHP from UCLA. I have seen everything from Kaprielian being a relief pitcher to a #2 or #3 pitcher in the major leagues as soon as the 2016 season a la Ian Kennedy.

Yankees Draft Night Open Thread

In less than an hour the Major League Baseball First Year Player's Draft begins on MLB Network with two picks in the first round for the New York Yankees. I put this post up an hour early because I plan on packing it full of as many mock drafts, information and of course a musical recommendation that I can before the draft. Be sure to click the links, soak in the information and become the most informed fan in your draft living room.'s Pipeline Top 200

Jonathan Mayos' FIRST, SECOND, THIRD and FOURTH mock drafts.

Baseball American's FIRST, SECOND, THIRD, FOURTH and FIFTH mock drafts.

Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blue's did many draft profiles including the showcases for Brady Aiken, Garrett Whitley, Chris Betts, James Kaprielian, and Ashe Russell.

And for the musical recommendation we bring you Hoodie Allen again. I was torn between the song I posted on the team's last off day and this one that I will post today so I decided what the hell, post them both. The name of the song is "Movie" and again his name is Hoodie Allen. Enjoy the song, enjoy your night and especially enjoy the draft.

Yankees Off Day Walk Up Music Recommendation

The Major League Baseball scheduling God's have given the New York Yankees off tonight so the team, the front office and more importantly the fans can focus fully on the draft tonight. We have touched on the upcoming draft almost all day today so instead with this post we will focus on the walk up music of a certain Yankees player. Thus far this season we've given the walk up music of Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann a listen (do you see the pattern there?) and today we'll continue with Chase Headley.

The song "Surrender" by Third Day plays every time Headley comes up to the plate inside Yankee Stadium and it will play this afternoon on the Greedy Pinstripes. Enjoy the song, enjoy the draft and enjoy the Yankees off day.

Most Popular Article of the Week: The Youth Movement Has Begun

New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi can say the word “no” about six hundred more times if he’d like the next time he is asked if Jacob Lindgren is beginning a youth injection in the Bronx or not but I think we all know the truth, he is. When Girardi was asked if Lindgren was part of a youth injection that led to the DFA of RHP David Carpenter the Yankees manager responded with “no,no,no,no,no,no” and retorted with the fact that they liked what they saw from the young LHP this season. Girardi also touched on the fact that Lindgren can get both left handed batters and right handed batters out and has handled himself well in a limited sample size with the big league club but come on Joe, the youth injection is coming and Lindgren is just the start of it.

The Yankees have an aging roster which will naturally bring inconsistency and injuries to the ball club forcing the hand of New York to rely heavily on their depth signings and farm system. When Jacoby Ellsbury went down the Yankees inserted Slade Heathcott and when Heathcott went down they inserted Ramon Flores into the outfield rotation. When the Yankees needed a starting rotation arm they inserted Adam Warren, not Esmil Rogers, and when Masahiro Tanaka went down the team inserted Chase Whitley. When the team needed a relief pitcher this season we’ve seen Joel De La Cruz, Jose Ramirez, Bryan Mitchell, Branden Pinder and now Lindgren while the team cut ties with Scott Baker, Jared Burton and other veteran relief pitchers signifying that the youth movement is in full swing in the Bronx.

With Robert Refsnyder biding his time him Triple-A and top prospect Luis Severino’s recent promotion to Scranton Wilkes-Barre the team has a ton of upside and youth on the way to the Bronx. That can be said with confidence without even mentioning the steps being taken by Brady Lail, Aaron Judge, Eric Jagielo, Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez and other top Yankees prospects that figure to put the pressure on the Yankees veterans currently in the lineup.

The youth movement is coming, are you ready for it?

ICYMI: 2015 Compilation MLB Draft (Top 200)

by: Ben Embry

Friends, the Major League Baseball Draft is 2 days away. For most baseball fans, the 3 day event comes and goes with little if any awareness. This may have to do with the fact that it, unlike the other major sports drafts, takes place in the middle of the season. The draft is not televised on ESPN, (also unlike other sports leagues like the NFL and NBA), which further diminishes awareness of the event.

This compilation board is something I like to do to stay up on who the big names are in the draft pool. What I do is take rankings from 4 different sources that I trust the most on the subject of draft prospects and I compile them into one board. And honestly, it is very difficult to find a lot of information on the MLB Draft on the internet, at least compared to the more popular NFL and NBA Drafts for reasons stated above. The MLB Draft is more niche-y, so I like to consider what I do a service to those other MLB draftniks out there who are looking for some good information.

1Brendan RodgersSSH.S.
2Dansby SwansonSSVandy
3Alex BregmanSS/2BLSU
4Dillon TateSPUC Santa B
5Carson FulmerSP/RPVandy
6Kyle TuckerOFH.S.
7Daz CameronOFH.S.
8Andrew BenintendiOFArkansas
9Tyler JaySP/RPIllinois
10Trenton ClarkOFH.S.
11Garrett WhitleyOFH.S.
12Ian Happ2B/OFCincinnati
13Walker BuehlerSPVandy
14Tyler StephensonCH.S.
15Kyle FunkhouserSPLouisville
16Kolby AllardSPH.S.
17Jonathan HarrisSPMo. State
18Mike NikorakSPH.S.
19Cornelius Randolph3BH.S.
20Nick PlummerOFH.S.
21James KaprielianSPUCLA
22Chris BettsCH.S.
23Donny EverettSPH.S.
24Brady AikenSPIMG Acad
25Ashe RussellSPH.S.
26Michael MatuellaSPDuke
27Phil BickfordSPJUCO
28Kevin NewmanSSArizona
29Nathan KirbySPVirginia
30D.J. StewartOFFla State
31Cody PonceSPCal Poly P
32Ke'Bryan Hayes3BH.S.
33Scott Kingery2B/OFArizona
34Richie MartinSSFlorida
35Beau BurrowsSPH.S.
36Alex YoungSPTCU
37Dakota ChalmersSPH.S.
38Jacob NixSPIMG Acad
39Mitchell HansenOFH.S.
40Jalen MillerSSH.S.
41Justin HooperSPH.S.
42Eric JenkinsOFH.S.
43Austin SmithSPH.S.
44Juan HillmanSPH.S.
45Joe McCarthyOFVirginia
46Triston McKenzieSPH.S.
47Blake TrahanSSLa Lafayette
48Chris Shaw1B/OFBoston Col
49Donnie DeweesOFUNF
50Nolan WatsonSPH.S.
51Peter LambertSPH.S.
52Tristan BeckSPH.S.
53Jacob WoodfordSPH.S.
54Kyle HolderSSSan Diego
55Drew FinleySPH.S.
56Kep BrownOFH.S.
57Riley FerrellRPTCU
58Josh Naylor1BH.S.
59Lucas HerbertCH.S.
60Alonzo Jones2B/OFH.S.
61Cole SandsSPH.S.
62Jahmai Jones2B/OFH.S.
63Luken BakerSP/1BH.S.
64Mikey WhiteSSAlabama
65Mike SorokaSPH.S.
66Kyle CodySPKentucky
67Nick NeidertSPH.S.
68Demi OrimoloyeOFH.S.
69Brady SingerSPH.S.
70Kyle MolnarSPH.S.
71Bryce DentonOF/3BH.S.
72Tyler Nevin3BH.S.
73Andrew SuarezSPMiami
74Christin StewartOFTennessee
75Antonio SantillanSPH.S.
76Josh StaumontSPAzusa Pac.
77Jeff DeganoPIndiana St
78Ryan BurrPAriz St
79Harrison BaderOFFlorida
80David HillSPSan Diego
81Taylor WardCFresno St
82Trey Cabbage3BH.S.
83Jacob TaylorSPJUCO
84Joe DeMersSPH.S.
85Ryan Cole McKaySPH.S.
86Blake HickmanPIowa
87Bryan HudsonSPH.S.
88Parker McFaddenSPH.S.
89Tanner RaineyPWest Alabama
90Thomas EshelmanSPCal State F
91Mark MathiasOFCal Poly SLO
92Gio BrusaOFPacific
93Tristin EnglishSPH.S.
94Brandon Lowe2BMaryland
95Chad SmithOFH.S.
96Cadyn GrenierSSH.S.
97Justin MaeseSPH.S.
98Brendon LittleSPH.S.
99Austin ReiCWashington
100Garrett DavilaSPH.S.
101Chandler DaySPH.S.
102Skye BoltOFUNC
103Desmond Lindsay3B/1BH.S.
104Jonathan IndiaSS/2BH.S.
105Wesley RodriguezSPH.S.
106Kevin KramerSSUCLA
107Blake PerkinsOFH.S.
108Thomas SzapuckiSPH.S.
109Jackson KowarSPH.S.
110Alex RobinsonRPMaryland
111Nick SprengelSPH.S.
112Casey HughstonOFAlabama
113Brett LilekRPAriz St
114Mac MarshallSPJUCO
115Brandon KochPDallas Baptist
116Rhett WisemanOFVandy
117Tate MathenyOFMo. State
118Austin AllenCFla Tech
119Tyler KriegerSSClemson
120Mariano Rivera, Jr.PIona
121Austin Byler3B/1BNevada
122Jared PadgettSPH.S.
123David Thompson3BMiami
124Braden BishopOFWashington
125Ryan MountcastleSS/3BH.S.
126Kolton Kendrick1BH.S.
127Marquise DohertyOFH.S.
128Andrew StevensonOFLSU
129Ian KahaloaSPH.S.
130Mitchell TraverSPTCU
131Travis BlankenhornSSH.S.
132Taylor ClarkeSP/RPCol of Charl
133Andrew MooreSP/RPOregon St
134Josh SborzRPVirginia
135Gray FenterSPH.S.
136Austin RileySP/SSH.S.
137Ryan McKennaOFH.S.
138Grayson LongSPTexas A&M
139Jack WynkoopSPSouth Car
140Steven DuggarOFClemson
141Bryan HoeingSPH.S.
142Luke WakamatsuSSH.S.
143Ryan KelloggSPAriz St
144Tanner DodsonSPH.S.
145D.J. WilsonOFH.S.
146Jimmy HergetSP/RPSouth Fla
147Paul DeJong2B/CIllinois St.
148Isaiah WhiteOFH.S.
149Doak DozierOFH.S.
150Garrett ZechOFH.S.
151Joey BartCH.S.
152Zack ErwinSPClemson
153Drew SmithRPDallas Baptist
154Kevin DucheneSPIllinois
155Ben JohnsonOFTexas
156Carl Wise3BCol of Charl
157Nick ShumpertSSH.S.
158Elih MarreroCH.S.
159Kyle DeanOFH.S.
160Willie Calhoun3BJUCO
161Jake LemoineSPHouston
162Jonas WyattSPH.S.
163Logan AllenSPH.S.
164Nolan LongSP/RPWagner
165Ian GibautSPTulane
166Michael BoyleSPRadford
167Nic EnrightSPH.S.
168Jaret HellingerSPH.S.
169Josh Tobias3BFlorida
170Patrick SandovalSPH.S.
171Colton EastmanSPH.S.
172Nick LeeSPH.S.
173Marcus BrakemanSPStanford
174Dylan ThompsonSPH.S.
175Nick MadrigalSSH.S.
176Dayton DugasSPH.S.
177A.J. MinterRPTexas A&M
178Max WotellSPH.S.
179Fitz StadlerSPH.S.
180John KilichowskiSPVandy
181Seth McGarrySPFla Atlantic
182Joe DavisCH.S.
183Kyri WashingtonOFLongwood
184Travis LakinsRPOhio St
185Travis BergenSPKennesaw St
186Isiah GilliamOF/1BJUCO
187Chad SmithRPJUCO
188Ryan Karstetter3BH.S.
189Jacob CroneworthSP/RPMichigan
190Tyler WilliamsOFH.S.
191Kevin McCannaSPRice
192Josh MageeOFH.S.
193Justin GarzaSP/RPCal State F
194Jeff HendrixOFOregon St
195Travis Maezes3BMichigan
196Chris ChatfieldOFH.S.
197Logan Ratledge2BNC State
198Max Schrock2BSouth Car
199Tyler FergusonRPVandy
200Sam BordnerSPH.S.

Interesting Tidbits:

- The biggest risers from last month's compilation board are Andrew Benintendi (+52), Nolan Watson (+37), Tyler Stephenson (+35), Mike Soroka (+33), and Lucas Herbert (+31). The biggest risers from the original compilation board are Tyler Jay (+28), Dillon Tate (+25), Garrett Whitley (+22), and Cornelius Randolph (also +22).

- The biggest fallers from last month's board are Jake Lemoine (-78), Kyle Dean (-71), Mitchell Traver (-53), and David Thompson (-52). The biggest fallers from the original compilation board are Marcus Brakeman (-133), Chandler Day (-66), Gio Brusa (-61), and Kyle Cody (-45).

- The most divisive players are Carson Fulmer (#3 on, #43 on, Kevin Newman (#2 on, #29 on Baseball America), and Alex Young (32, 36, and 37 on Baseball America, Fangraphs, and respectively, not ranked in top 100 on

- Brendan Rodgers was #1 on all 3 comp boards, the first time anyone has ever done that in the 3 years I've been doing this. Other models of consistency were Ian Happ (range from 10-14), Daz Cameron (7 to 14), and Richie Martin (28 to 37).

As I mentioned, Brendan Rodgers has held serve since the original board as the #1 ranked prospect. He's a HS SS that has a good chance to stay at the position and hit for power and average. He's a little big for SS so if anything, he would have to move to 3B but most think his plus instincts will allow him to stay where he is. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman, two SS who play in the SEC, are the #2 and #3 ranked players on the board. Though he actually played 2B until this year in defense to current Yankees SS prospect Vince Conde, Swanson has the best chance to stay at the position of the top 3 players. Bregman has many believers who think he can stay at SS but there is a strong contingent of scouts who believe the 5'11 Albuquerque native will have to make the same move as other notable Albuquerque middle infielder Dustin Pedroia to 2B.

The Yankees have 7 of the first 200 picks, (16, 30, 57, 92, 123, 153, and 183). Their draft pool is the sixth largest in the league, ($7,885,000 for 11 picks); the first two picks are worth a combined $4.5 million by themselves. That much in bonus allowances gives NY some options. For example, if there's a top 10 caliber player with equivalent bonus demands that, for whatever reason, ends slides to 16, the Yankees could easily meet those demands. Granted, they'd have to shift close to a million dollars from their next pick, but they could still give that player a 7-figure bonus. Whether that would be a sound strategy is debatable, but the fact is it's easily do-able.

There have been several mocks over the past month that have come out, and there are 3 players that have been tied with the Yankees at pick 16 most consistently: HS C Chris Betts, UCLA RHP James Kaprielian, and HS CF Garrett Whitley. Betts and Kaprielian have been tied to the Yankees in 7 different mocks and Whitley 6. Others mentioned include Ian Happ, Phil Bickford, and Donny Everett.

I actually developed a fun little analytic for determining the % chance Yankees take some of these players. What I did was take the % chance a player is available when New York is picking at 16, (which I determined by using the range of potential picks as found on Fangraph's Sortable Draft Board), times the % of mentions that player was mentioned versus all other mentions. For example, FG says the range for Chris Betts is 13-26, so there is a 78.6% chance he will be available at 16. Out of the 35 mentions in the various mocks I have tracked, Betts was 25.7% of them. Multiplying those two ratios together, I've theorized that there is a 20.2% chance New York takes Chris Betts. The rest of the players are as follows:

Player% Chnc
Chris Betts20.2%
James Kaprielian9.1%
Cody Ponce8.6%
Mike Nikorak8.1%
Phil Bickford7.8%
Garrett Whitley4.4%
Cornelius Randolph2.9%
Kolby Allard1.7%
Ian Happ1.4%
Daz Cameron0.2%
Trenton Clark0.0%
Jon Harris0.0%
Walker Buehler0.0%
Kevin Newman0.0%
Nate Kirby0.0%
Kyle Funkhouser0.0%
Brady Aiken0.0%

The first 10 players have been linked to New York at pick 16. All of them combined have a roughly a 64.4% chance that one of them is selected by NY. The other 7 FG feels like could go somewhere in that range, but because they have not been linked with NY the have a 0% chance. Note that this is as of TODAY and lots could happen or be rumored between now and Monday.

That actually leads me to a brief stump speech that I will make on behalf of Brady Aiken. Kiley McDaniel mentioned today in a blogpost on Fangraphs that there is optimism regarding the infamous elbow that led Houston to not signing Aiken last summer and subsequently needing Tommy John surgery this Spring. Kiley states there are a number of executives he has spoken too that state the medicals are not as bad as had been believed and he now believes Aiken is firmly back in the first round. I wholeheartedly believe that if Aiken is available at 16, New York needs to take him. In a mediocre draft such as this, where the other pitchers that are going to be taken around this sport are being described as #3 to #4 starters, New York needs to take the guy who could potentially be an ace, even if there is still an elevated risk of him not reaching that potential (or even reaching the majors AT ALL). I likened it today to the Yoan Moncada situation from last Spring, (which I bemoaned at length). Brady Aiken is a high, HIGH end talent and the Yankees virtually NEVER get an opportunity to acquire amateur talent such as Aiken because of the way the various mechanisms for delivering amateur talent to teams are set up. You have to think about Aiken in this simple context: potential * probability of reaching that potential. Even if Aiken is "riskier" than other players that New York could potentially take in this area such as James Kaprielian, his potential is so much higher than that of Kaprielian that I think the extra risk is more than offset. Add to that the fact that New York has the compensatory pick at 30 in which they can go "safe", (if there really is such a thing in drafting amateur talent), I am CONVINCED NEW YORK SHOULD TAKE AIKEN.

There are four notable players the Yankees have drafted in the past that are available again this year, which I wrote about here. Those players are Florida State OF DJ Stewart, Iona RHP Mariano Rivera, Jr., Tennessee OF Vincent Jackson, and UCLA OF Ty Moore. It'll be interesting to see if New York selects any of them again. It happened last year when they took Jordan Foley for the second time. Considering I've been following their college careers from the start I've grown fond of them all and would like to see them all end up as Yankees. I'd expect Stewart to be a late 1st or 2nd rd pick, Rivera to go in rounds 3-5, Jackson 4-7, and Moore 6-10.

Looking at my prospect rankings spreadsheet the other day, I realized just how position player heavy it was. There are 76 guys on that list right now and amazingly only 31 of them are pitchers. That's just a little bit better than 40%, which is bad low. What makes it worse, in my mind, is that only 8 of those 30 pitchers were born in 1994 or later. So there are almost no good young pitchers in the lower levels, (except for Austin DeCarr). That's due to two reasons: 1. NYY didn't sign a single HS pitcher last year, (I don't count DeCarr because he was post grad) and 2. Out of the 18 players they gave a bonus of $100,000 or more in last summer's IFA class, not a single one was a pitcher.

With that in mind, I would like to see NYY draft a lot of pitching this year. For the first 5 rounds it would still be prudent as always to draft best player available, but for the Yankees' sake I hope that happens to be pitching. And I'm hoping to see 2 or 3 late round over slot signings of young HS pitchers. Those kids are usually super volatile talent-wise but MAN they can they payoff big. By going just $100,000+ over slot they could unearth some diamonds like Brady Lail or Bryan Mitchell.

In the interest of full disclosure, here are links to the four rankings this compilation is based on:
1. Baseball America (Baseball America staff)
2. (Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen)
3. FanGraphs (Kiley McDaniel)
4. MLB Pipeline (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo)

Hopefully you find this informative. It's a labor of love to compile these rankings, (it's gotten easier over the years but is time consuming). Following the draft I'll have two posts: one right afterwards giving initial grades for all 30 teams based on how they draft, then after the signing deadline I'll adjust for those who did not sign. Email me or hit me up on twitter with any questions: or @thebronxempire. Have a good day!