Imagine AJ Hinch having to make this walk... |
I want to preface this post by saying, in all honesty, that
no matter what the punishment was for the Houston Astros, many, including
myself, were just not going to be happy. Anything short of stripping them of
the 2017 World Series Championship, which is not realistic or logistically
feasible, and parading all the players down the street a la Game of Thrones
with Cersei’s walk of shame (Season 5, Episode 10) was simply not going to be
good enough. That’s fandom in a nutshell. We’re all fanatical about our team
and we are all equally as fanatical when we feel like our team got screwed over
and/or cheated. Yankees fans are rightly upset about the whole situation, and
the subsequent punishments set down by the league after the fact didn’t help
matters much in my opinion.
Admittedly, when the announcement came down, I put out a
tweet stating that I felt like the punishment was pretty light. Truth be told,
I still kind of do think the punishment was a little on the lighter side, but
once I saw a Tweet from my very good friend, and the co-owner and founder of
the blog, Bryan Van Dusen, I started looking at things another way. Could the
loss of their first and second round draft picks for the 2020 and 2021 MLB
First Year Players Draft have much more of an impact on the team than I am
giving the league credit for? Maybe.
Now before we deep dive into this too much I will admit that many of these first round and second round picks that I am about to talk about came early on in the draft and came as a result of the Astros tanking for many, many years. These subsequent draft picks that the Astros are about to lose will likely come towards the later half of both drafts, Houston will lose the 30th overall pick and the 62nd overall pick in 2020, but that doesn’t make them any less important.What about Justin Verlander? The got him after dealing 1st rounder Daz Cameron (and three others). Zack Greinke was acquired using two 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder.— Undies (@Bryan_TGP) January 13, 2020
The Astros current core and roster was built via the draft.
Star players like Carlos Correa (1st overall pick in the 2012 MLB
Draft), Alex Bregman (2nd overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft),
George Springer (11th overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft), Kyle
Tucker (5th overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft), and Lance McCullers
Jr. (41st pick overall in 2012) make up just a few pieces of the
core that Houston was able to draft, develop, and bring up to the Major Leagues
with varying degrees of success. It is also worth mentioning, while not part of
the core and not a star player as of the time of this writing, that Blake
Taylor will likely win a spot in the Astros bullpen to start the 2020 season.
Taylor was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2013 MLB Draft by the
Pittsburgh Pirates and was acquired by the Astros from the New York Mets, along
with Kenedy Corona, for outfielder Jake Marisnick this winter. Taking away even
one of these guys probably changes the dynamic of the team but imagine if
potentially four of them got taken away. That would just be soul crushing to
the team, in my opinion, and that could very well be happening in some capacity
to the future of the Houston Astros with these punishments handed down from the
league yesterday.
My one gripe about the punishment, and my main reason for
thinking the punishment was a little light, was that the Astros were not hit
whatsoever on the international market. Some of my followers on Twitter quickly
rebuffed this, stating that the Astros were not major players on the IFA
market, but after researching a little I have to vehemently disagree. It only
takes one player signing with the Astros off the IFA market to change the minds
of the many, and the simple fact that the Astros plucked All-Star and 2017 MVP*
Jose Altuve out of Maracay, Venezuela as a 16-year old in 2007 could
potentially change a lot of minds in the market. On top of that, albeit in
smaller roles, the additions of Yuli Gurriel (defected from Cuba in 2016), Yordan
Alvarez (defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers),
Aledmys Diaz (defected from Cuba in 2012 and signed with the St. Louis
Cardinals in 2014), Jose Urquidy who broke out during the 2019 postseason
(signed out of Mazatlan, Mexico), and a pair of IFA-acquired arms in Framber
Valdez and Francis Martes that may be vying for the 5th starter spot
in spring training 2020, may also go a long way to putting Houston as a
desirable destination for potential future international free agents. How many
kids growing up in Venezuela want to be Jose Altuve right now? I bet that
number is staggering, so to completely disregard the IFA market in the
punishment is completely irresponsible, in my opinion.
Yes, I realize that Gurriel and Alvarez were signed outside
of the International market and would not have affected their IFA spending
budget, but my overall point was to show that the Astros could, and now are, more
attractive than ever on the international market. Oh, and by the way if you
want to continue even deeper down this rabbit hole, the Astros traded RHP Josh
Fields to the Dodgers for Alvarez. Fields bounced around a few times throughout
his MiLB career, but that career started after the Seattle Mariners selected
him 20th overall in the first round of the 2008 MLB Draft. Another
first round pick that never amounted to anything at the big-league level, but
ultimately shaped the way the Houston Astros are currently constructed through
the Draft.
To take this whole thing one step further, you have to
mention the fact that the Astros best pitcher right now is the ageless Justin
Verlander. Verlander was the 2nd overall pick of the Detroit Tigers
way back in the 2004 MLB Draft, and it took RHP Franklin Perez (Astros #3
prospect at the time who was acquired on the IFA market out of Valencia,
Venezuela), OF Daz Cameron (Astros #9 prospect at the time who was drafted in
the first round of the 2015 MLB Draft), and C Jake Rogers (Astros #11 prospect
at the time and former 3rd round pick from 2016) to acquire him back
in 2017. So, in order for the Astros to acquire the pitcher that put them over
the top during the 2017 postseason (and a former first round pick) it took them
sending three of their top 11 best prospects, one of them being a former first
round pick and the other being an IFA signing). You also have to remember that
the Astros didn’t pay for the production that they received from Verlander; he
was struggling mightily in Detroit before seemingly reinventing himself in
Houston. Imagine if he had the same production in Detroit before the trade that
he had while with the Astros, it may have taken three or four former first
round picks to acquire him.
The Astros were not done there and were seemingly not
content with their 2017 World Series Championship*. After the 2017 season the
Astros acquired another former first round pick in Gerrit Cole (drafted 28th
overall by the New York Yankees in 2008, and then again first overall to the
Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011) from the Pittsburgh Pirates. What did it cost
Houston to acquire the talented right-hander from Pittsburgh before the 2018
season? Joe Musgrove (first round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011),
Michael Feliz (IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic), Colin Moran (first
round pick 6th overall of the Miami Marlins in 2013), and Jason
Martin (8th round pick of the Astros in 2013). To acquire yet
another former first round pick, and another piece that the team thought would
put them ahead of the pack in the American League, it cost the Astros two more
first round picks, an IFA signing, and a “lottery ticket” in Martin.
But the Astros were not done there either. In their
never-ending effort to stay on top of the competition in the American League,
Jeff Luhnow and company acquired former Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zack
Greinke at the trade deadline during the 2019 season. Greinke, a former first
round pick (6th overall) of the Kansas City Royals in 2002, was
acquired from Arizona for SP Corbin Martin (2nd round pick of the
Astros in the 2017 MLB Draft), SP J.B. Bukauskas (1st round pick, 15th
overall, by Houston in 2017), 1B Seth Beer (1st round pick, 28th
overall, by Houston in 2018), and UTIL Josh Rojas. It is worth mentioning that
while the Diamondbacks were willing to eat $24 million of the remaining dollars
on Greinke’s contract, Houston is still on the hook for $53 million including
his salary for the 2020 season. Did the money factor into the prospects haul
for the Diamondbacks? You would have to think so, but even then, it still took two
former first round picks, a second-round pick, and another lottery ticket in
Rojas.
The Astros are clearly not against trading top prospects and
former first and second round picks for that key piece they need at the big
league level, which may mean that some of these Top 30 prospects (Fangraphs)
may also be in the market for new real estate before July 31, 2020. Here is a
look at the Astros Top 30 prospects and a quick look at how they got here.
1. Forrest Whitley – 1st round pick 17th overall 2016
2. Jose Urquidy – IFA signing out of Mexico
3. Abraham Toro – 5th round pick in 2016
4. Freudis Nova – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
5. Bryan Abreu – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
6. Cristian Javier – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
7. Brandon Bielak - 11th round pick in 2017
8. Korey Lee – 1st round pick 32nd overall in 2019
9. Hunter Brown – 5th round pick in 2019
10. Jairo Solis – IFA signing out of Venezuela
11. Jeremy Pena – 3rd round pick in 2018
12. Jose Alberto Rivera – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
13. Enoli Paredes – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
14. Tyler Ivey – 3rd round pick in 2017
15. Angel Macuare – IFA signing out of Venezuela
16. Jordan Brewer – 3rd round pick in 2019
17. Colin Barber – 4th round pick in 2019
18. Grae Kessinger – 2nd round pick in 2019
19. Luis Garcia – IFA signing out of Venezuela
20. Luis Santana – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
21. Jojanse Torres – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
22. Carlos Sanabria – IFA signing out of Venezuela
23. Cionel Perez – Defected from Cuba, signed as IFA in 2016
24. Ronnie Dawson – 2nd round pick in 2016
25. Dauri Lorenzo – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
26. Manny Ramirez – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
27. Rogelio Armenteros – Defected from Cuba, signed as IFA in 2014
28. Nivaldo Rodriguez – IFA signing out of Venezuela
29. Garrett Stubbs – 8th round pick in 2015
30. Chas McCormick – 21st round pick in 2017
The present makeup and construction of the Astros were largely
built through the MLB First Year Players Draft, and it looks like the future of
the organization (either through the system or via trade) could be largely made
up through the Draft as well.
"Got out just in time, boys!" |
So, in closing, are the loss of their first and second round
draft picks for the 2020 and 2021 MLB Drafts important? Yes, absolutely. Would
it have hurt Houston even more to lose some of their IFA money and spending capabilities?
Also, absolutely, but you know what hurts the most? Well, besides when the
Astros miss the playoffs entirely in 2020 and have to watch the Yankees finally
bring that World Championship trophy home, is that the team had to watch their
manager get fired, their GM (and probably the best GM in all of baseball) get
fired, AND they had to watch arguably their best pitcher head to arguably their
biggest rival via free agency. Unfortunately, though, the Astros WILL keep the
compensation pick that they received, 72nd overall, from the Yankees
signing of Cole. How sweet would it have been if they had lost that pick too?
Now we wait on the punishment for the Boston Red Sox, and
more importantly Alex Cora. More to come…