Thursday, April 21, 2016

Hypothetical 2017 Yankees Club Staying the Course


The Yankees have a plan for better or worse and dammit, they are going to stick to it no matter what. Brian Cashman has a plan and he’s either going to look like a genius at the end of it all or him and manager Joe Girardi are going down with the ship. The Yankees did not sign a single free agent to a major league contract this winter and, for the sake of this fun and hypothetical post, they aren’t going to get in the deep water of the free agent market after this season either. New York has three major free agents coming off their books after the season in Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and Aroldis Chapman and their plan to get younger and more flexible will continue when they let all three of them walk via free agency. What will the team do to replace them though while sticking to the plan? The answers are actually easier to come by then you think.

No more Teix messages in New York and Greg Bird had offseason shoulder surgery, what are the Yankees going to do? Are they going to sign Teixeira to a one-year deal and/or offer him a qualifying offer after this season or will the team find a stop gap via the free agent market? Neither. I can see New York, assuming the health of Greg Bird, sending the Birdman of New York to the Arizona Fall League and any winter league they can this winter to evaluate his shoulder and the health of it before the season. Bird is a young guy and he had a similar surgery that Luis Torrens had last season and has come back from without any major issues. Torrens is a catcher and has to throw the ball back to the pitcher 150+ times a night, Bird is not. Bird will be fine and will be the Yankees starting first baseman on Opening Day 2017 saving the Yankees over $20 million in salary and bringing the average age of the club down significantly.

No more Beltran belts one in New York and Aaron Judge struggled in Triple-A at the end of the 2015 season, what are the Yankees going to do? Leave the past where it belongs, in the past. That’s what they are going to do. Aaron Judge is a special talent and he has a lot of talented coaches and managers surrounding him not only in Triple-A but he will in the Bronx as well. Judge will have another year under his belt heading into next winter and barring an injury or a catastrophic fall off he should also get his MLB debut out of the way at least before the season ends, if not sooner. Judge is the future in right field in my opinion and not even Aaron Hicks, a potential Yoenis Cespedes free agent signing or anyone else is going to stop Judge. That’s my verdict. The Yankees save another $15 million, give or take $500K, and they get a whole lot younger in the process.

No more John Sterling home run calls to reference and no more snazzy one-liners to mention, the Yankees are going to lose Aroldis Chapman to free agency. The good news for the Yankees is the team and the organization has seemingly an uncanny ability to produce high ceiling and talented relief pitchers out of their farm system. Dellin Betances, Jacob Lindgren and Johnny Barbato are recent examples of this and this will continue in 2017. Bryan Mitchell should be fully healed and ready from his toe injury, Lindgren should be a staple in the MLB bullpen and the Scranton Shuttle will still be a thing in 2017 so I see no reason to go out and blow money on an experienced relief pitcher who will want anywhere from $5 million to $15 million when the team has plenty of hungry and young fire ballers willing to throw 100 MPH and strike out two batters an inning for $525K. Save the money, get younger and keep the flow of dominant young arms coming through the Yankees system.

Stick to the plan. Get cheaper, get younger and get better. Get under the luxury tax for a season and give Hal Steinbrenner no excuse not to dip his feet into the free agent waters again.


10 comments:

  1. If the elf keeps Chapman at the trading deadline and they are out of it by then he should be fired on the spot. I felt he should've traded away Cano as well for a haul of players. Traded away what we did which wasn't earth shattering but it was quantity wise needs to be be something other than a sandwich pick and if a team signs him that finished in the bottom of MLB I believe it turns into a 2nd rd pick. Burch please clarify this?

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    1. You mean if the last place team signs a free agent? That's nuts. Even if the odds of this are unlikely (except for the red sox lol)

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    2. No Hans. a pick is a pick.

      What happens is the team that signs him, except for teams with the top 10 picks, lose their picks. The Yankees don't get that pick though they get a pick at the end of the first round. For example.

      if the Tigers signed Chapman and had the 11th pick overall and the Yankees had the 15th pick overall the 11th pick would disappear. The 12th pick would move up to the 11th pick and the Yankees would have the 14th pick. There would technically be only 29 picks in the first round and the pick we receive for Chapman becomes the 30th pick, it just starts what they call the supplemental round.

      Did I confuse you?

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    3. I think there was a situation where the team that signed a FA lost their first rd pick and then they signed another so there wasn't a first rd pick to give up since they had lost it already and the pick equated to a second rd pick for a top flight player. The point of the matter is the elf needs to be smart about this and if we are looking in from the outside he needs to cut ties with Chapman and tell Tex this might be your last chance to get on a playoff team so waive your no trade because we aren't signing you and try to unload Headley and a few others. I just don't think the Elf can mastermind a trade of that significance

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    4. I agree 99%, as i only became concerned with this with bird's injury. but yes, i think there would be a good incentive for tex to waive the no trade (if he has an opportunity to play into playoffs, and we are out of it). but my concern is that we need someone next year at first, especially if bird isnt ready to take over.

      Daniel, so if they are top 10 and sign FA, there is no change, and the yankees (in this case) still get a supplemental? Sooo.. it's essentially worthless. lol.

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    5. Next years first baseman will come via the dumpster dive. Someone like a Cecil Cooper or Bye Bye Balboni or hell let's get Boog Powel out of retirement. I'm sure he would sign for the major league minimum since the coupon clipper won't spend any money

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    6. I hope not, but I dont see other options. The positive side of it- will be bird should be able to take over, as it seems this isn't a terrible injury (not saying its good, but others seem to recover fine).

      I typically get on tex, as I kind of think he's a bit of a bitch. but even yesterday, I saw a couple of throws that could have been missed/prevented errors/missed outs that he saved. so if they do one of these patch jobs they are becoming known for, and bird doesn't bounce back, it's going to be terrible.

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    7. Daryl,

      Yes. if a Top 10 team signs a qualifying free agent they do not lose their pick but the Yankees still do get a supplemental pick.

      Hans,

      A team can lose their 2nd and 3rd round picks for signing multiple qualifying free agents but the Yankees still get a pick between the first and second round, that doesn't change.

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    8. Thank you sir, I knew he wouldn't believe me. And thanks for clearing that up...again!
      I think we went over all that stuff in the winter time, did we not?

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    9. I'm sure we did but a room of lawyers came up with the crap, who can blame someone for not being able to understand it all the time or keep up with it all. It's confusing.

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