Thursday, February 21, 2019

Projected 2019 Standings

It was recently announced that Manny Machado would be signing with the Padres — a 10 year deal worth $300 million. Bryce Harper, Craig Kimbrel and Marwin Gonzalez are remarkably still up for grabs; with that being said, Spring Training is underway and the regular season is fast approaching. In this investigation, we will attempt to project the 2019 standings through finding a relationship / pattern between each team’s overall WAR (all WAR are according to FanGraphs) and the number of games they win. To find this relationship (for each team) — WCF (Wins Correlation Factor) — let’s take a trip back in time. 
1. The formula used to calculate WCF for a single season can be seen below…
WCF = Wins – Team WAR
2. The formula used to calculate an Overall WCF (accounting for entire data sample / last 5 seasons / 2014:18) can be seen below…
Overall WCF = (2018 WCF * 0.30) + (2017 WCF * 0.25) + (2016 WCF * 0.20) + (2015 WCF * 0.15) + (2014 WCF * 0.1) 

Angels

Overall WCF = (44.6 * 0.3) + (50.2 * 0.25) + (47.3 * 0.2) + (55.9 * 0.15) + (53.1 * 0.1) = 13.38 + 12.55 + 9.46 + 8.385 + 5.31 = 49.085
2018 Team WAR: 35.4; 2018 Record: 80-82; WCF: 44.6
2017 Team WAR: 29.8; 2017 Record: 80-82; WCF: 50.2
2016 Team WAR: 26.7; 2016 Record: 74-88; WCF: 47.3
2015 Team WAR: 29.1; 2015 Record: 85-77; WCF: 55.9
2014 Team WAR: 44.9; 2014 Record: 98-64; WCF: 53.1

Astros

Overall WCF = (47.5 * 0.3) + (47.5 * 0.25) + (43.2 * 0.2) + (41.2 * 0.15) + (46.5 * 0.1) = 14.25 + 11.875 + 8.64 + 6.18 + 4.65 = 45.595
2018 Team WAR: 55.5; 2018 Record: 103-59; WCF: 47.5
2017 Team WAR: 53.5; 2017 Record: 101-61; WCF: 47.5
2016 Team WAR: 40.8; 2016 Record: 84-78; WCF: 43.2
2015 Team WAR: 44.8; 2015 Record: 86-76; WCF: 41.2
2014 Team WAR: 23.5; 2014 Record: 70-92; WCF: 46.5

Athletics

Overall WCF = (52.5 * 0.3) + (48.5 * 0.25) + (52.8 * 0.2) + (43.8 * 0.15) + (49.4 * 0.1) = 15.75 + 12.125 + 10.56 + 6.57 + 4.94 = 49.945
2018 Team WAR: 44.5; 2018 Record: 97-65; WCF: 52.5
2017 Team WAR: 26.5; 2017 Record: 75-87; WCF: 48.5
2016 Team WAR: 16.2; 2016 Record: 69-93; WCF: 52.8
2015 Team WAR: 24.2; 2015 Record: 68-94; WCF: 43.8
2014 Team WAR: 38.6; 2014 Record: 88-74; WCF: 49.4

Blue Jays

Overall WCF = (51.9 * 0.3) + (49.2 * 0.25) + (47.6 * 0.2) + (42.8 * 0.15) + (46.7 * 0.1) = 15.57 + 12.3 + 9.52 + 6.42 + 4.67 = 48.48 
2018 Team WAR: 21.1; 2018 Record: 73-89; WCF: 51.9
2017 Team WAR: 26.8; 2017 Record: 76-86; WCF: 49.2
2016 Team WAR: 41.4; 2016 Record: 89-73; WCF: 47.6
2015 Team WAR: 50.2; 2015 Record: 93-69; WCF: 42.8
2014 Team WAR: 36.3; 2014 Record: 83-79; WCF: 46.7

Braves

Overall WCF = (49.3 * 0.3) + (47.7 * 0.25) + (48.7 * 0.2) + (50.1 * 0.15) + (47.7 * 0.1) = 14.79 + 11.925 + 9.74 + 7.515 + 4.77 = 48.74
2018 Team WAR: 40.7; 2018 Record: 90-72; WCF: 49.3
2017 Team WAR: 24.3; 2017 Record: 72-90; WCF: 47.7
2016 Team WAR: 19.3; 2016 Record: 68-93; WCF: 48.7
2015 Team WAR: 16.9; 2015 Record: 67-95; WCF: 50.1
2014 Team WAR: 31.3; 2014 Record: 79-83; WCF: 47.7

Brewers

Overall WCF = (53 * 0.3) + (51.5 * 0.25) + (48.7 * 0.2) + (45.4 * 0.15) + (45.7 * 0.1) = 15.9 + 12.875 + 9.74 + 6.81 + 4.57 = 49.895
2018 Team WAR: 43.0; 2018 Record: 96-67; WCF: 53
2017 Team WAR: 34.5; 2017 Record: 86-76; WCF: 51.5
2016 Team WAR: 24.3; 2016 Record: 73-89; WCF: 48.7
2015 Team WAR: 22.6; 2015 Record: 68-94; WCF: 45.4
2014 Team WAR: 36.3; 2014 Record: 82-80; WCF: 45.7

Cardinals

Overall WCF = (48.1 * 0.3) + (41.4 * 0.25) + (46.9 * 0.2) + (55.6 * 0.15) + (56 * 0.1) = 14.43 + 10.35 + 9.38 + 8.34 + 5.6 = 48.1
2018 Team WAR: 39.9; 2018 Record: 88-74; WCF: 48.1
2017 Team WAR: 41.6; 2017 Record: 83-79; WCF: 41.4
2016 Team WAR: 39.1; 2016 Record: 86-76; WCF: 46.9
2015 Team WAR: 44.4; 2015 Record: 100-62; WCF: 55.6
2014 Team WAR: 34.0; 2014 Record: 90-72; WCF: 56

Cubs

Overall WCF = (54.9 * 0.3) + (48.8 * 0.25) + (46.5 * 0.2) + (48.4 * 0.15) + (37.2 * 0.1) = 16.47 + 12.2 + 9.3 + 7.26 + 3.72 = 48.95
2018 Team WAR: 40.1; 2018 Record: 95-68; WCF: 54.9
2017 Team WAR: 43.2; 2017 Record: 92-70; WCF: 48.8
2016 Team WAR: 56.5; 2016 Record: 103-58; WCF: 46.5
2015 Team WAR: 48.6; 2015 Record: 97-65; WCF: 48.4
2014 Team WAR: 35.8; 2014 Record: 73-89; WCF: 37.2

Diamondbacks

Overall WCF = (48.5 * 0.3) + (50.6 * 0.25) + (42.8 * 0.2) + (46.7 * 0.15) + (42.8 * 0.1) = 14.55 + 12.65 + 8.56 + 7.005 + 4.28 = 47.045
2018 Team WAR: 33.5; 2018 Record: 82-80; WCF: 48.5
2017 Team WAR: 42.4; 2017 Record: 93-69; WCF: 50.6
2016 Team WAR: 26.2; 2016 Record: 69-93; WCF: 42.8
2015 Team WAR: 32.3; 2015 Record: 79-83; WCF: 46.7
2014 Team WAR: 21.2; 2014 Record: 64-98; WCF: 42.8

Dodgers

Overall WCF = (38.5 * 0.3) + (49.2 * 0.25) + (44.9 * 0.2) + (43 * 0.15) + (42.8 * 0.1) = 11.55 + 12.3 + 8.98 + 6.45 + 4.28 = 43.56
2018 Team WAR: 53.5; 2018 Record: 92-71; WCF: 38.5
2017 Team WAR: 54.8; 2017 Record: 104-58; WCF: 49.2
2016 Team WAR: 46.1; 2016 Record: 91-71; WCF: 44.9
2015 Team WAR: 49.0; 2015 Record: 92-70; WCF: 43
2014 Team WAR: 51.2; 2014 Record: 94-58; WCF: 42.8

Giants

Overall WCF = (53.6 * 0.3) + (43 * 0.25) + (46.2 * 0.2) + (45.6 * 0.15) + (51.7 * 0.1) = 16.08 + 10.75 + 9.24 + 6.84 + 5.17 = 48.08
2018 Team WAR: 19.4; 2018 Record: 73-89; WCF: 53.6
2017 Team WAR: 21.0; 2017 Record: 64-98; WCF: 43
2016 Team WAR: 40.8; 2016 Record: 87-75; WCF: 46.2
2015 Team WAR: 38.4; 2015 Record: 84-78; WCF: 45.6
2014 Team WAR: 36.3; 2014 Record: 88-74; WCF: 51.7

Indians

Overall WCF = (40.7 * 0.3) + (44.3 * 0.25) + (51.4 * 0.2) + (41.1 * 0.15) + (50.5 * 0.1) = 12.21 + 11.075 + 10.28 + 6.165 + 5.05 = 44.78
2018 Team WAR: 50.3; 2018 Record: 91-71; WCF: 40.7
2017 Team WAR: 57.7; 2017 Record: 102-60; WCF: 44.3
2016 Team WAR: 42.6; 2016 Record: 94-67; WCF: 51.4
2015 Team WAR: 39.9; 2015 Record: 81-80; WCF: 41.1
2014 Team WAR: 34.5; 2014 Record: 85-77; WCF: 50.5

Mariners

Overall WCF = (54 * 0.3) + (45.9 * 0.25) + (50.8 * 0.2) + (49.7 * 0.15) + (56.9 * 0.1) = 16.2 + 11.475 + 10.16 + 7.455 + 5.69 = 50.98
2018 Team WAR: 35.0; 2018 Record: 89-73; WCF: 54
2017 Team WAR: 32.1; 2017 Record: 78-84; WCF: 45.9
2016 Team WAR: 35.2; 2016 Record: 86-76; WCF: 50.8
2015 Team WAR: 26.3; 2015 Record: 76-86; WCF: 49.7
2014 Team WAR: 30.1; 2014 Record: 87-75; WCF: 56.9

Marlins

Overall WCF = (49.7 * 0.3) + (43.1 * 0.25) + (41.8 * 0.2) + (43.3 * 0.15) + (43.8 * 0.1) = 14.91 + 10.775 + 8.36 + 6.495 + 4.38 = 44.92
2018 Team WAR: 13.3; 2018 Record: 63-98; WCF: 49.7
2017 Team WAR: 33.9; 2017 Record: 77-85; WCF: 43.1
2016 Team WAR: 37.2; 2016 Record: 79-82; WCF: 41.8
2015 Team WAR: 27.7; 2015 Record: 71-91; WCF: 43.3
2014 Team WAR: 33.2; 2014 Record: 77-85; WCF: 43.8

Mets

Overall WCF = (43.7 * 0.3) + (38.4 * 0.25) + (41.5 * 0.2) + (46.1 * 0.15) + (48.4 * 0.1) = 13.11 + 9.6 + 8.3 + 6.915 + 4.84 = 42.765
2018 Team WAR: 33.3; 2018 Record: 77-85; WCF: 43.7
2017 Team WAR: 31.6; 2017 Record: 70-92; WCF: 38.4
2016 Team WAR: 45.5; 2016 Record: 87-75; WCF: 41.5
2015 Team WAR: 43.9; 2015 Record: 90-72; WCF: 46.1
2014 Team WAR: 30.6; 2014 Record: 79-83; WCF: 48.4

Nationals

Overall WCF = (42.5 * 0.3) + (50.9 * 0.25) + (57.8 * 0.2) + (42.9 * 0.15) + (45.5 * 0.1) = 12.75 + 12.725 + 11.56 + 6.435 + 4.55 = 48.02
2018 Team WAR: 39.5; 2018 Record: 82-80; WCF: 42.5
2017 Team WAR: 46.1; 2017 Record: 97-65; WCF: 50.9
2016 Team WAR: 37.2; 2016 Record: 95-67; WCF: 57.8
2015 Team WAR: 40.1; 2015 Record: 83-79; WCF: 42.9
2014 Team WAR: 50.5; 2014 Record: 96-66; WCF: 45.5

Orioles

Overall WCF = (38.9 * 0.3) + (43.4 * 0.25) + (53 * 0.2) + (47.7 * 0.15) + (55.7 * 0.1) = 11.67 + 10.85 + 10.6 + 7.155 + 5.57 = 45.845
2018 Team WAR: 8.1; 2018 Record: 47-115; WCF: 38.9
2017 Team WAR: 31.6; 2017 Record: 75-87; WCF: 43.4
2016 Team WAR: 36.0; 2016 Record: 89-73; WCF: 53
2015 Team WAR: 33.3; 2015 Record: 81-81; WCF: 47.7
2014 Team WAR: 40.3; 2014 Record: 96-66; WCF: 55.7

Padres

Overall WCF = (45.5 * 0.3) + (56.4 * 0.25) + (47.8 * 0.2) + (47.9 * 0.15) + (53.1 * 0.1) = 13.65 + 14.1 + 9.56 + 7.185 + 5.31 = 49.805
2018 Team WAR: 20.5; 2018 Record: 66-96; WCF: 45.5
2017 Team WAR: 14.6; 2017 Record: 71-91; WCF: 56.4
2016 Team WAR: 20.2; 2016 Record: 68-94; WCF: 47.8
2015 Team WAR: 26.1; 2015 Record: 74-88; WCF: 47.9
2014 Team WAR: 23.9; 2014 Record: 77-85; WCF: 53.1

Phillies

Overall WCF = (48 * 0.3) + (41.1 * 0.25) + (47.2 * 0.2) + (43.7 * 0.15) + (44.8 * 0.1) = 14.4 + 10.275 + 9.44 + 6.555 + 4.48 = 45.15
2018 Team WAR: 32.0; 2018 Record: 80-82; WCF: 48
2017 Team WAR: 24.9; 2017 Record: 66-96; WCF: 41.1
2016 Team WAR: 23.8; 2016 Record: 71-91; WCF: 47.2
2015 Team WAR: 19.3; 2015 Record: 63-99; WCF: 43.7
2014 Team WAR: 28.2; 2014 Record: 73-89; WCF: 44.8

Pirates

Overall WCF = (49.3 * 0.3) + (48.8 * 0.25) + (49.8 * 0.2) + (54.2 * 0.15) + (48.3 * 0.1) = 14.79 + 12.2 + 9.96 + 8.13 + 4.83 = 49.91
2018 Team WAR: 32.7; 2018 Record: 82-79; WCF: 49.3
2017 Team WAR: 26.2; 2017 Record: 75-87; WCF: 48.8
2016 Team WAR: 28.2; 2016 Record: 78-83; WCF: 49.8
2015 Team WAR: 43.8; 2015 Record: 98-64; WCF: 54.2
2014 Team WAR: 39.7; 2014 Record: 88-74; WCF: 48.3

Rangers

Overall WCF = (43.9 * 0.3) + (55.7 * 0.25) + (66.7 * 0.2) + (55.5 * 0.15) + (46.1 * 0.1) = 13.17 + 13.925 + 13.34 + 8.325 + 4.61 = 53.37
2018 Team WAR: 23.1; 2018 Record: 67-95; WCF: 43.9
2017 Team WAR: 22.3; 2017 Record: 78-84; WCF: 55.7
2016 Team WAR: 28.3; 2016 Record: 95-67; WCF: 66.7
2015 Team WAR: 32.5; 2015 Record: 88-74; WCF: 55.5
2014 Team WAR: 20.9; 2014 Record: 67-95; WCF: 46.1

Rays

Overall WCF = (49.7 * 0.3) + (43.2 * 0.25) + (38.9 * 0.2) + (45.8 * 0.15) + (42.6 * 0.1) = 14.91 + 10.8 + 7.78 + 6.87 + 4.26 = 44.62
2018 Team WAR: 40.3; 2018 Record: 90-72; WCF: 49.7
2017 Team WAR: 36.8; 2017 Record: 80-82; WCF: 43.2
2016 Team WAR: 29.1; 2016 Record: 68-94; WCF: 38.9
2015 Team WAR: 34.2; 2015 Record: 80-82; WCF: 45.8
2014 Team WAR: 34.4; 2014 Record: 77-85; WCF: 42.6

Red Sox

Overall WCF = (57.8 * 0.3) + (51.6 * 0.25) + (39.6 * 0.2) + (48.5 * 0.15) + (43.1 * 0.1) = 17.34 + 12.9 + 7.92 + 7.275 + 4.31 = 49.745
2018 Team WAR: 50.2; 2018 Record: 108-54; WCF: 57.8
2017 Team WAR: 41.4; 2017 Record: 93-69; WCF: 51.6
2016 Team WAR: 53.4; 2016 Record: 93-69; WCF: 39.6
2015 Team WAR: 29.5; 2015 Record: 78-84; WCF: 48.5
2014 Team WAR: 27.9; 2014 Record: 71-91; WCF: 43.1

Reds

Overall WCF = (41.5 * 0.3) + (42.7 * 0.25) + (54.4 * 0.2) + (36.6 * 0.15) + (48.4 * 0.1) = 12.45 + 10.675 + 10.88 + 5.49 + 4.84 = 44.335
2018 Team WAR: 25.5; 2018 Record: 67-95; WCF: 41.5
2017 Team WAR: 25.3; 2017 Record: 68-94; WCF: 42.7
2016 Team WAR: 13.6; 2016 Record: 68-94; WCF: 54.4
2015 Team WAR: 27.4; 2015 Record: 64-98; WCF: 36.6
2014 Team WAR: 27.6; 2014 Record: 76-86; WCF: 48.4

Rockies

Overall WCF = (57.3 * 0.3) + (55 * 0.25) + (42.8 * 0.2) + (49.9 * 0.15) + (41.7 * 0.1) = 17.19 + 13.75 + 8.56 + 7.485 + 4.17 = 51.155
2018 Team WAR: 33.7; 2018 Record: 91-72; WCF: 57.3
2017 Team WAR: 32.0; 2017 Record: 87-75; WCF: 55
2016 Team WAR: 32.2; 2016 Record: 75-87; WCF: 42.8
2015 Team WAR: 18.1; 2015 Record: 68-94; WCF: 49.9
2014 Team WAR: 24.3; 2014 Record: 66-96; WCF: 41.7

Royals

Overall WCF = (39.4 * 0.3) + (54.6 * 0.25) + (57.7 * 0.2) + (59.5 * 0.15) + (53 * 0.1) = 11.82 + 13.65 + 11.54 + 8.925 + 5.3 = 51.235
2018 Team WAR: 18.6; 2018 Record: 58-104; WCF: 39.4
2017 Team WAR: 25.4; 2017 Record: 80-82; WCF: 54.6
2016 Team WAR: 23.3; 2016 Record: 81-81; WCF: 57.7
2015 Team WAR: 35.5; 2015 Record: 95-67; WCF: 59.5
2014 Team WAR: 36.0; 2014 Record: 89-73; WCF: 53

Tigers

Overall WCF = (47.2 * 0.3) + (37.5 * 0.25) + (47 * 0.2) + (45.4 * 0.15) + (45.5 * 0.1) = 14.16 + 9.375 + 9.4 + 6.81 + 4.55 = 44.295
2018 Team WAR: 16.8; 2018 Record: 64-98; WCF: 47.2
2017 Team WAR: 26.5; 2017 Record: 64-98; WCF: 37.5
2016 Team WAR: 39.0; 2016 Record: 86-75; WCF: 47
2015 Team WAR: 28.6; 2015 Record: 74-87; WCF: 45.4
2014 Team WAR: 44.5; 2014 Record: 90-72; WCF: 45.5

Twins

Overall WCF = (50.4 * 0.3) + (50.1 * 0.25) + (36.5 * 0.2) + (55.1 * 0.15) + (39.5 * 0.1) = 15.12 + 12.525 + 7.3 + 8.265 + 3.95 = 47.16
2018 Team WAR: 27.6; 2018 Record: 78-84; WCF: 50.4
2017 Team WAR: 34.9; 2017 Record: 85-77; WCF: 50.1
2016 Team WAR: 22.5; 2016 Record: 59-103; WCF: 36.5
2015 Team WAR: 27.9; 2015 Record: 83-79; WCF: 55.1
2014 Team WAR: 30.5; 2014 Record: 70-92; WCF: 39.5

White Sox

Overall WCF = (44.8 * 0.3) + (49.8 * 0.25) + (46.5 * 0.2) + (49.8 * 0.15) + (48.9 * 0.1) = 13.44 + 12.45 + 9.3 + 7.47 + 4.89 = 47.55
2018 Team WAR: 17.2; 2018 Record: 62-100; WCF: 44.8
2017 Team WAR: 17.2; 2017 Record: 67-95; WCF: 49.8
2016 Team WAR: 31.5; 2016 Record: 78-84; WCF: 46.5
2015 Team WAR: 26.2; 2015 Record: 76-86; WCF: 49.8
2014 Team WAR: 24.1; 2014 Record: 73-89; WCF: 48.9

Yankees

Overall WCF = (44 * 0.3) + (38.1 * 0.25) + (50.4 * 0.2) + (48.1 * 0.15) + (48.2 * 0.1) = 13.2 + 9.525 + 10.08 + 7.215 + 4.82 = 44.84
2018 Team WAR: 56.0; 2018 Record: 100-62; WCF: 44
2017 Team WAR: 52.9; 2017 Record: 91-71; WCF: 38.1
2016 Team WAR: 33.6; 2016 Record: 84-78; WCF: 50.4
2015 Team WAR: 38.9; 2015 Record: 87-75; WCF: 48.1
2014 Team WAR: 35.8; 2014 Record: 84-78; WCF: 48.2
Here were my 2019 standings projections (as of Jan. 13th)…
2019 Projected Record = Overall WCF + 2019 Team WAR Projections (per FanGraphs Depth Charts projections) 
Italicized = would make playoffs

American League

AL East

  1. Boston Red Sox: 100.6 – 61.4 (Overall WCF 49.745 + 50.9 Team WAR Projections)
  2. New York Yankees: 97.3 – 64.7 (44.84 Overall WCF + 52.5 Team WAR Projections)
  3. Tampa Bay Rays: 82.3 – 79.7 (44.62 Overall WCF + 37.7 Team WAR Projections)
  4. Toronto Blue Jays: 78.7 – 83.3 (48.48 Overall WCF + 30.2 Team WAR Projections)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: 61.2 – 100.8 (45.845 Overall WCF + 15.4 Team WAR Projections)

AL Central

  1. Cleveland Indians: 90.5 – 71.5 (44.78 Overall WCF + 45.7 Team WAR Projections)
  2. Minnesota Twins: 83.5 – 78.5 (47.16 Overall WCF + 36.3 Team WAR Projections)
  3. Kansas City Royals: 72.3 – 89.7 (51.235 Overall WCF + 21.1 Team WAR Projections)
  4. Chicago White Sox: 70.3 – 91.7 (47.55 Overall WCF + 22.7 Team WAR Projections)
  5. Detroit Tigers: 66.0 – 96.0 (44.295 Overall WCF + 21.7 Team WAR Projections)

AL West

  1. Houston Astros: 95.1 – 66.9 (45.595 Overall WCF + 49.5 Team WAR Projections)
  2. Los Angeles Angels: 88.6 – 73.4 (49.085 Overall WCF + 39.5 Team WAR Projections)
  3. Oakland Athletics: 85.1 – 76.9 (49.945 Overall WCF + 35.2 Team WAR Projections)
  4. Texas Rangers: 77.8 – 84.2 (53.37 Overall WCF + 24.4 Team WAR Projections)
  5. Seattle Mariners: 77.0 – 85.0 (50.98 Overall WCF + 26.0 Team WAR Projections)

National League

NL East

  1. Washington Nationals: 94.7 – 67.3 (48.02 Overall WCF + 46.7 Team WAR Projections)
  2. New York Mets 84.3 – 77.7 (42.765 Overall WCF + 41.5 Team WAR Projections)
  3. Atlanta Braves 84.0 – 78.0 (48.74 Overall WCF + 35.3 Team WAR Projections)
  4. Philadelphia Phillies 79.1 – 82.9 (45.15 Overall WCF + 33.9 Team WAR Projections)
  5. Miami Marlins 65.5 – 96.5 (44.92 Overall WCF + 20.6 Team WAR Projections)

NL Central 

  1. Chicago Cubs: 93.1 – 68.9 (48.95 Overall WCF + 44.1 Team WAR Projections)
  2. St. Louis Cardinals: 90.2 – 71.8 (48.1 Overall WCF + 42.1 Team WAR Projections)
  3. Pittsburgh Pirates: 86.6 – 75.4 (49.91 Overall WCF + 36.7 Team WAR Projections)
  4. Milwaukee Brewers: 83.8 – 78.2 (49.895 Overall WCF + 33.9 Team WAR Projections)
  5. Cincinatti Reds: 77.0 – 85.0 (44.335 Overall WCF + 32.7 Team WAR Projections)

NL West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 93.5 – 68.5 (43.56 Overall WCF + 49.9 Team WAR Projections)
  2. Colorado Rockies: 85.2 – 76.8 (51.155 Overall WCF + 34.0 Team WAR Projections)
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks: 79.3 – 82.7 (47.045 Overall WCF + 32.3 Team WAR Projections)
  4. San Diego Padres: 79.3 – 82.7 (49.805 Overall WCF + 29.5 Team WAR Projections
  5. San Francisco Giants: 75.2 – 86.8 (48.08 Overall WCF + 27.1 Team WAR Projections)
Now we will account for changes in Team WAR Projections (based on FanGraphs’ Depth Charts as of Feb. 20th at 11:00 am) since the previous edition (early Jan.), which can be seen below…

American League

AL East

  1. Boston Red Sox: -0.1 
  2. New York Yankees: -0.1
  3. Tampa Bay Rays: -0.2
  4. Toronto Blue Jays: -0.1
  5. Baltimore Orioles: +0.9

AL Central

  1. Cleveland Indians: -0.2
  2. Minnesota Twins: +0.7
  3. Kansas City Royals: +0.4
  4. Chicago White Sox: -0.3
  5. Detroit Tigers: -0.2

AL West

  1. Houston Astros: -0.3
  2. Los Angeles Angels: +0.5
  3. Oakland Athletics: -0.5
  4. Texas Rangers: +1.8
  5. Seattle Mariners: +0.4

National League

NL East

  1. Washington Nationals: -0.3
  2. New York Mets: +0.3
  3. Atlanta Braves: +0.6
  4. Philadelphia Phillies: +3.0
  5. Miami Marlins: -1.0

NL Central

  1. Chicago Cubs: +0.3
  2. St. Louis Cardinals: 0
  3. Pittsburgh Pirates: -0.5
  4. Milwaukee Brewers: +2.0
  5. Cincinnati Reds: +3.1

NL West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: +0.1
  2. Colorado Rockies: -0.2
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks: +0.3
  4. San Diego Padres: +4.8 
  5. San Francisco Giants: +1.1
We also need to bump/boost teams down/up depending on how the outlook for other teams has changed. WAR changes less than 0.3 will be left alone (won’t affect other teams directly). WAR changes of 1.0 WAR or less will not be introduced to teams outside that division. Here are the updated standings…

American League

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox: 100.3 – 61.7
  • Overall Change: -0.3 wins
100.6 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.1 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.11 ([19 games against the Orioles / 162) * 0.9) – 0.08 ([7 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 100.3 wins
2. New York Yankees: 97.0 – 65.0
  • Overall Change: -0.3
97.3 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.1 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.11 ([19 games against the Orioles / 162) * 0.9) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 97.0 wins
3. Tampa Bay Rays: 81.9 – 80.1
  • Overall Change: -0.4
82.3 (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.2 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.11 ([19 games against the Orioles / 162) * 0.9) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 82.3 wins
4. Toronto Blue Jays: 78.4 – 83.6
  • Overall Change: -0.3
78.7 (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.1 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.11 ([19 games against the Orioles / 162) * 0.9) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 78.4 wins
5. Baltimore Orioles: 62.0 – 100.0
  • Overall Change: +0.8
61.2 (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.9 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.08 ([7 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 62.0 wins

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians: 90.1 – 71.9
  • Overall Change: -0.4
90.5 (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.2 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.08 ([7 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.08 ([19 games against Twins / 162] * 0.7) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Royals / 162] * 0.4) + 0.04 ([19 games against the White Sox / 162] * 0.3) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) = 90.1 wins
2. Minnesota Twins: 84.1 – 77.9
  • Overall Change: +0.6
83.5 (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.7 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.08 ([7 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Royals / 162] * 0.4) + 0.04 ([19 games against the White Sox / 162] * 0.3) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) = 84.1 wins
3. Kansas City Royals: 72.5 – 89.5
  • Overall Change: +0.2
72.3 (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.4 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.08 ([7 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.08 ([19 games against Twins / 162] * 0.7) + 0.04 ([19 games against the White Sox / 162] * 0.3) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) = 72.5 wins
4. Chicago White Sox: 69.7 – 92.3
  • Overall Change: -0.6
70.3 (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.3 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.08 ([7 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.08 ([19 games against Twins / 162] * 0.7) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Royals / 162] * 0.4) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) = 69.7 wins
5. Detroit Tigers: 65.6 – 96.4
  • Overall Change: -0.4
66.0 (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.2 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.08 ([19 games against Twins / 162] * 0.7) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Royals / 162] * 0.4) + 0.04 ([19 games against the White Sox / 162] * 0.3) – 0.07 ([4 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) = 65.6 wins

AL West

1. Houston Astros: 94.4 – 67.6
  • Overall Change: -0.7
95.1 (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.3 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.21 ([19 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.06 ([19 games against the Angels / 162] * 0.5) + 0.06 ([19 games against the Athletics / 162] * 0.5) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Mariners / 162] * 0.4) – 0.05 ([4 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 94.4 wins
2. Los Angeles Angels:: 88.9 – 73.1
  • Overall Change: +0.3
88.6 (Projected Record from Edition #1) +0.5 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.21 ([19 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) + 0.06 ([19 games against the Athletics / 162] * 0.5) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Mariners / 162] * 0.4) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Astros / 162] * 0.3) – 0.04 ([3 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.08 ([4 games against the Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 88.9 wins
3. Oakland Athletics: 84.2 – 77.8
  • Overall Change: -0.9
85.1 (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.5 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.21 ([19 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.06 ([19 games against the Angels / 162] * 0.5) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Mariners / 162] * 0.4) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Astros / 162] * 0.3) – 0.04 ([3 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 84.2 wins
4. Texas Rangers: 79.4 – 82.6
  • Overall Change: +1.6
77.8 (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 1.8 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.06 ([19 games against the Angels / 162] * 0.5) – 0.05 ([19 games against the Mariners / 162] * 0.4) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Astros / 162] * 0.3) + 0.06 ([19 games against the Athletics / 162] * 0.5) – 0.04 ([3 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 84.2 wins
5. Seattle Mariners: 77.1 – 84.9
  • Overall Change: +0.1
77.0 (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.4 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.06 ([19 games against the Angels / 162] * 0.5) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Astros / 162] * 0.3) + 0.06 ([19 games against the Athletics / 162] * 0.5) – 0.21 ([19 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) – 0.04 ([3 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.06 ([3 games against the Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 84.2 wins

National League

NL East

1. Washington Nationals: 93.6 – 68.4
  • Overall Change: -1.1
94.7 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.3 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.04 ([6 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.21 ([7 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Mets / 162) * 0.3) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) + 0.12 ([19 games against the Marlins / 162] * 1) – 0.07 ([19 games against the Braves / 162] * 0.6) – 0.35 ([19 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) – 0.11 ([6 games against Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 93.6 wins
2. Atlanta Braves: 83.9 – 78.1
  • Overall Change: -0.1
84.0 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.6 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.05 ([7 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.21 ([7 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Nationals / 162) * 0.3) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Mets / 162) * 0.3) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) + 0.12 ([19 games against the Marlins / 162] * 1) – 0.35 ([19 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) – 0.13 ([7 games against Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 83.9 wins
2. New York Mets: 83.9 – 78.1
  • Overall Change: -0.4
84.3 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.3 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.05 ([7 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.18 ([6 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Nationals / 162) * 0.3) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) + 0.12 ([19 games against the Marlins / 162] * 1) – 0.07 ([19 games against the Braves / 162] * 0.6) – 0.35 ([19 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) – 0.13 ([7 games against Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 83.9 wins
4. Philadelphia Phillies: 81.7 – 80.3
  • Overall Change: +2.6
79.1 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 3 (change in Team WAR Projections) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Nationals / 162) * 0.3) – 0.05 ([7 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.18 ([6 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Mets / 162) * 0.3) – 0.09 ([7 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) + 0.12 ([19 games against the Marlins / 162] * 1) – 0.07 ([19 games against the Braves / 162] * 0.6) – 0.13 ([7 games against Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 81.7 wins
5. Miami Marlins: 63.6 – 98.4
  • Overall Change: -1.9
65.5 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 1 (change in Team WAR Projections) + 0.04 ([19 games against the Nationals / 162) * 0.3) – 0.04 ([6 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.21 ([7 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Mets / 162) * 0.3) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.35 ([19 games against the Phillies / 162] * 3) – 0.07 ([19 games against the Braves / 162] * 0.6) – 0.13 ([7 games against Reds / 162] * 3.1) = 63.6 wins

NL Central

1. Cubs: 92.9 – 69.1
  • Overall Change: -0.6
93.5 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.3 (change in Team WAR Projections) + 0.06 ([19 games against Pirates / 162] * 0.5) – 0.04 ([6 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.21 ([7 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.36 ([19 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.23 ([19 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) – 0.03 ([3 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 92.9 wins
2. Cardinals: 89.2 – 71.8
  • Overall Change: -1.0
90.2 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0 (change in Team WAR Projections) + 0.06 ([19 games against Pirates / 162] * 0.5) – 0.04 ([19 games against Cubs / 162] * 0.3) – 0.05 ([7 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.18 ([6 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.36 ([19 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.23 ([19 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.11 ([6 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) – 0.03 ([3 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 89.2 wins
3. Pirates: 85.1 – 76.9
  • Overall Change: -1.5
86.6 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.5 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.04 ([19 games against Cubs / 162] * 0.3) – 0.05 ([7 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.18 ([6 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.36 ([19 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.23 ([19 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.11 ([6 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) – 0.03 ([3 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 85.1 wins
3. Brewers: 85.1 – 76.9
  • Overall Change: +1.3
83.8 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 2 (change in Team WAR Projections) + 0.06 ([19 games against Pirates / 162] * 0.5) – 0.04 ([19 games against Cubs / 162] * 0.3) – 0.04 ([6 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.21 ([7 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.36 ([19 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) – 0.03 ([3 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 85.1 wins
5. Reds: 79.5 – 82.5
  • Overall Change: +2.5
77.0 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 3.1 (change in Team WAR Projections) + 0.06 ([19 games against Pirates / 162] * 0.5) – 0.04 ([19 games against Cubs / 162] * 0.3) – 0.04 ([6 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.21 ([7 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.23 ([19 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) – 0.03 ([3 games against the Rangers / 162] * 1.8) = 79.5 wins

NL West

1. Dodgers: 92.5 – 69.5
  • Overall Change: -1.0 wins
93.5 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.1 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.13 ([19 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Diamondbacks / 162] * 0.3) – 0.56 ([19 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.11 ([6 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.09 ([7 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) = 92.5 wins
2. Rockies: 83.9 – 78.1
  • Overall Change: -1.3
85.2 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) – 0.2 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.56 ([19 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.13 ([19 games against the Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.09 ([7 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.11 ([6 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Diamondbacks / 162] * 0.3) = 83.9 wins
3. Padres: 83.6 – 78.4
  • Overall Change: +4.3 
79.3 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 4.8 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.13 ([19 games against Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Diamondbacks / 162] * 0.3) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.09 ([7 games against the Brewers / 162) * 2) – 0.11 ([6 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) = 83.6 wins
4. Diamondbacks: 78.6 – 83.4
  • Overall Change: -0.7 
79.3 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 0.3 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.56 ([19 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.13 ([19 games against the Giants / 162] * 1.1) – 0.09 ([7 games against the Brewers / 162] * 2) – 0.11 ([6 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.11 ([6 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) = 78.6 wins
5. Giants: 75.4 – 86.6
  • Overall Change: +0.2
75.2 wins (Projected Record from Edition #1) + 1.1 (change in Team WAR Projections) – 0.04 ([19 games against the Diamondbacks / 162] * 0.3) – 0.56 ([19 games against the Padres / 162] * 4.8) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Reds / 162) * 3.1) – 0.07 ([6 games against the Brewers / 162) * 2) – 0.13 ([7 games against the Phillies / 162) * 3) = 75.4 wins
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