Why Spring Training Records Actually Matter

You’ve all heard it many times: spring training results (records) don’t mean anything. In this investigation, I will evaluate and question the accuracy of that statement. First, let’s take a look at the Spring Training Standings (per MLB.com) from the last 5 years (2014 – 18)

2018

Grapefruit League	Wins	Losses	PCT
Boston Red Sox	22	9	.710
Houston Astros	21	9	.700
Baltimore Orioles	17	12	.586
NY Yankees	18	13	.581
St. Louis Cardinals	17	13	.567
Miami Marlins	15	13	.536
Minnesota Twins	14	14	.500
Tampa Bay Rays	14	16	.467
Detroit Tigers	13	15	.464
Toronto Blue Jays	14	18	.438
Philadelphia Phillies	13	17	.433
Washington Nationals	13	17	.433
Atlanta Braves	13	18	.419
Pittsburgh Pirates	11	19	.367
NY Mets	10	18	.357

Cactus League	Wins	Losses	PCT
Milwaukee Brewers	19	12	.613
San Diego Padres	15	10	.600
Cleveland Indians	19	13	.594
Chi Cubs	19	14	.576
Chi White Sox	16	12	.571
Kansas City Royals	16	13	.552
Seattle Mariners	16	14	.533
LA Dodgers	17	15	.531
Arizona Diamondbacks	15	15	.500
SF Giants	15	16	.484
Oakland Athletics	14	16	.467
Colorado Rockies	12	17	.414
LA Angels	13	20	.394
Cincinnati Reds	10	19	.345
Texas Rangers	8	22	.267

% of time teams made the playoffs (applying to both leagues) in the subsequent regular season

PCT (winning percentage) below .400: 0% (0 out of 5 teams)

PCT .400 – .500: 27.3% (3 out of 11 teams)

• PCT .400 – .450: 40% (2 out of 5 teams)
• PCT .451 – .500: 16.7% (1 out of 6 teams)

PCT .500 or below: 18.8% (3 out of 16 teams; this category represented 30% of the playoff spots)

PCT .501 – .600: 36.4% (4 out of 11 teams)

• PCT .501 – .550: 33.3% (1 out of 3 teams)
• PCT .551 – .600: 37.5% (3 out of 8 teams)

PCT .601 – .650: 100% (1 out of 1 teams)

PCT above .650: 100% (2 out of 2 teams)

PCT .501 or above: 50% (7 out of 14 teams; this category represented 70% of the playoff spots)

2017

Grapefruit League	Wins	Losses	PCT
NY Yankees	24	9	.727
St. Louis Cardinals	20	8	.714
Pittsburgh Pirates	19	12	.613
Boston Red Sox	18	14	.563
Minnesota Twins	16	13	.552
Baltimore Orioles	16	14	.533
Houston Astros	15	15	.500
NY Mets	15	17	.469
Philadelphia Phillies	14	17	.452
Miami Marlins	13	17	.433
Washington Nationals	13	17	.433
Tampa Bay Rays	12	16	.429
Toronto Blue Jays	12	18	.400
Detroit Tigers	14	21	.400
Atlanta Braves	9	22	.290

Cactus League	Wins	Losses	PCT
LA Angels	21	14	.600
Seattle Mariners	19	14	.576
SF Giants	19	16	.543
Kansas City Royals	17	15	.531
Colorado Rockies	16	15	.516
Cleveland Indians	17	16	.515
Texas Rangers	17	16	.515
LA Dodgers	18	17	.514
Milwaukee Brewers	17	17	.500
Arizona Diamondbacks	15	15	.500
Chi White Sox	16	17	.485
Oakland Athletics	16	18	.471
Cincinnati Reds	16	19	.457
Chi Cubs	13	18	.419
San Diego Padres	11	21	.344

% of time teams made the playoffs (applying to both leagues) in the subsequent regular season

PCT (winning percentage) below .400: 0% (0 out of 2 teams)

PCT .400 – .500: 28.6% (4 out of 14 teams)

• PCT .400 – .450: 33.3% (2 out of 6 teams)
• PCT .451 – .500: 25% (2 out of 8 teams)

PCT .500 or below: 25% (4 out of 16 teams; this category represented 40% of the playoff spots)

PCT .501 – .600: 45.5% (5 out of 11 teams)

• PCT .501 – .550: 42.9% (3 out of 7 teams)
• PCT .551 – .600: 50% (2 out of 4 teams)

PCT .601 – .650: 0% (0 out of 1 teams)

PCT above .650: 50% (1 out of 2 teams)

PCT .501 or above: 42.9% (6 out of 14 teams; this category represented 60% of the playoff spots)

2016

Grapefruit League	Wins	Losses	PCT
Washinton Nationals	19	4	.826
Toronto Blue Jays	17	8	.680
Minnesota Twins	19	11	.633
Detroit Tigers	18	11	.621
Houston Astros	18	11	.621
Philadelphia Phillies	15	11	.577
Tampa Bay Rays	12	13	.480
NY Yankees	14	16	.467
St. Louis Cardinals	11	13	.458
Baltimore Orioles	12	15	.444
Miami Marlins	11	14	.440
Boston Red Sox	14	18	.434
NY Mets	8	17	.320
Pittsburgh Pirates	8	20	.286
Atlanta Braves	5	20	.200

Cactus League	Wins	Losses	PCT
Arizona Diamondbacks	24	8	.750
LA Angels	19	8	.704
Cleveland Indians	18	12	.600
Chi White Sox	17	13	.567
Colorado Rockies	15	13	.536
Seattle Mariners	16	14	.533
Texas Rangers	17	15	.531
Cincinnati Reds	16	16	.500
Milwaukee Brewers	14	14	.500
LA Dodgers	13	17	.433
Oakland Athletics	12	17	.414
Kansas City Royals	14	21	.400
SF Giants	13	20	.394
Chi Cubs	11	19	.367
San Diego Padres	10	21	.323

% of time teams made the playoffs (applying to both leagues) in the subsequent regular season

PCT (winning percentage) below .400: 50% (3 out of 6 teams)

PCT .400 – .500: 27.2% (3 out of 11)

• PCT between .400 – .450: 50% (3 out of 6 teams)
• PCT between .451 – .500: 0% (0 out of 5 teams)

PCT .500 or below: 35.3% (6 out of 17 teams; this category represented 60% of the playoff spots)

PCT .501 – .600: 33.3% (2 out of 6 teams)

• PCT .501 – .550: 33.3% (1 out of 3 teams)
• PCT .551 – .600: 33.3% (1 out of 3 teams)

PCT .601 – .650: 0% (0 out of 3 teams)

PCT above .650: 50% (2 out of 4 teams)

PCT .501 or above: 30.8% (4 out of 13 teams; this category represented 40% of the playoff spots)

2015

Grapefruit League	Wins	Losses	PCT
NY Mets	19	12	.613
Toronto Blue Jays	19	13	.594
Boston Red Sox	17	12	.586
St. Louis Cardinals	13	11	.542
Miami Marlins	14	12	.538
Pittsburgh Pirates	15	13	.536
Tampa Bay Rays	15	13	.536
NY Yankees	17	16	.515
Houston Astros	12	12	.500
Atlanta Braves	15	17	.469
Philadelphia Phillies	14	17	.452
Minnesota Twins	13	16	.448
Washington Nationals	11	16	.407
Baltimore Orioles	12	19	.387
Detroit Tigers	12	20	.375

Cactus League	Wins	Losses	PCT
Oakland Athletics	22	11	.667
Kansas City Royals	20	10	.667
LA Dodgers	16	11	.593
San Diego Padres	17	12	.586
Arizona Diamondbacks	19	14	.576
LA Angels	15	14	.517
Cincinnati Reds	15	14	.517
Colorado Rockies	16	16	.500
Chi Cubs	15	17	.469
Milwaukee Brewers	13	16	.448
Cleveland Indians	14	18	.438
Seattle Mariners	13	17	.433
Chi White Sox	11	17	.393
SF Giants	13	21	.382
Texas Rangers	9	19	.321

% of time teams made the playoffs (applying to both leagues) in the subsequent regular season

PCT (winning percentage) below .400: 20% (1 out of 5 teams)

PCT .400 – .500: 20% (2 out of 10)

• PCT between .400 – .450: 0% (0 out of 5 teams)
• PCT between .451 – .500: 40% (2 out of 5 teams)

PCT .500 or below: 20% (3 out of 15 teams; this category represented 30% of the playoff spots)

PCT .501 – .600: 41.7% (5 out of 12 teams)

• PCT .501 – .550: 42.9% (3 out of 7 teams)
• PCT .551 – .600: 40% (2 out of 5 teams)

PCT .601 – .650: 100% (1 out of 1 teams)

PCT above .650: 50% (1 out of 2 teams)

PCT .501 or above: 46.7% (7 out of 15 teams; this category represented 70% of the playoff spots)

2014

Grapefruit League	Wins	Losses	PCT
Tampa Bay Rays	16	7	.696
Miami Marlins	18	12	.600
Pittsburgh Pirates	15	10	.600
Baltimore Orioles	13	9	.591
NY Yankees	17	12	.586
Detroit Tigers	15	12	.556
Toronto Blue Jays	16	13	.552
Washington Nationals	15	13	.536
NY Mets	14	16	.467
St. Louis Cardinals	11	13	.458
Houston Astros	12	15	.444
Atlanta Braves	12	18	.400
Boston Red Sox	11	17	.393
Minnesota Twins	9	16	.360
Philadelphia Phillies	9	18	.333

Cactus League	Wins	Losses	PCT
Cleveland Indians	20	9	.690
LA Angels	19	11	.633
Seattle Mariners	18	12	.600
SF Giants	17	12	.586
Oakland Athletics	15	13	.536
Colorado Rockies	15	14	.517
Arizona Diamondbacks	12	13	.480
San Diego Padres	11	13	.458
Chi Cubs	15	18	.455
Cincinnati Reds	14	17	.452
Kansas City Royals	12	16	.429
Milwaukee Brewers	13	18	.419
Chi White Sox	9	14	.391
Texas Rangers	10	17	.370
LA Dodgers	7	12	.368

% of time teams made the playoffs (applying to both leagues) in the subsequent regular season

PCT (winning percentage) below .400: 16.7% (1 out of 6 teams)

PCT .400 – .500: 20% (2 out of 10)

• PCT between .400 – .450: 25% (1 out of 4 teams)
• PCT between .451 – .500: 16.7% (1 out of 6 teams)

PCT .500 or below: 18.8% (3 out of 16 teams; this category represented 30% of the playoff spots)

PCT .501 – .600: 54.5% (6 out of 11 teams)

• PCT .501 – .550: 66.7% (2 out of 3 teams)
• PCT .551 – .600: 50% (4 out of 8 teams)

PCT .601 – .650: 100% (1 out of 1 teams)

PCT above .650: 0% (0 out of 2 teams)

PCT .501 or above: 50% (7 out of 14 teams; this category represented 70% of the playoff spots)

Averages (2014 – 18)

% of time teams made the playoffs (applying to both leagues) in the subsequent regular season

PCT (winning percentage) below .400: 20.8% (5 out of 24 teams)

PCT .400 – .500: 25% (14 out of 56 teams)

• PCT .400 – .450: 30.8% (8 out of 26 teams)
• PCT .451 – .500: 20% (6 out of 30 teams)

PCT .500 or below: 23.8% (19 out of 80 teams; this category represented 38% of the playoff spots)

PCT .501 – .600: 43.1% (22 out of 51 teams)

• PCT .501 – .550: 43.5% (10 out of 23 teams)
• PCT .551 – .600: 42.9% (12 out of 28 teams)

PCT .601 – .650: 42.9% (3 out of 7 teams)

PCT above .650: 50% (6 out of 12 teams)

PCT .501 or above: 44.3% (31 out of 70 teams; this category represented 62% of the playoff spots)

Spring Training results portend what is to come (whether a playoff spot is in store for that particular team) to a certain extent, thus holding some value. Here are some staggering statistics that reiterate the fact that ST actually matters:

• Only ~20% of the teams who finished with a winning PCT below .400 in ST made the playoffs
• A higher % of teams who finished above .500 in ST (44.3%) made the playoffs than the teams who finished with a below .500 record in ST (23.8%)
• 62% of the teams who made the playoffs in the last 5 years were teams who finished with an above .500 record in ST

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