Chris Davis the Gate Keeper

The 2016 offseason began with a bang as teams began to cash in and get some “bang” for their buck. Craig Kimbrel came off the trade market pretty early while David Price and Zack Greinke’s families presumably had some great Christmas holidays after the free agent contracts they signed. Since then though the market has slowed down and has been slow to develop in many areas, especially the outfield department. Why? Jason Heyward, the top overall free agent and the top outfield prospect, has already signed and the dominos were expected to fall by now… but they haven’t. I know why, its former Orioles slugger Chris Davis’s fault.

Chris Davis is the gate keeper to the entire offseason, let me explain why. The Baltimore Orioles are interested in at least one outfielder this offseason but in their market they have to make a choice. Do they want Davis to come back or do they want one of Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. Baltimore has put out a deal worth $150 million to Davis and have since retracted the deal supposedly but I’m not buying it. If they had they would have jumped on an outfielder, Upton specifically since his family ties run to the Virginia area, but they haven’t. Why? Because they are waiting on Chris Davis to make up his mind.

Upton is a better outfielder than Cespedes and unless a sweetheart deal comes around, like the three year deal the San Francisco Giants or Chicago White Sox would like to sign Cespedes to, he will likely wait until Upton comes off the board. Why? Because this is going to be the biggest and presumably best contract that the Cuban-born outfielder gets. He is going to milk it dry for every penny possible and teams won’t get desperate until Upton signs.

So this is a Yankees blog, how does Chris Davis, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes affect the Yankees? Brett Gardner. The Yankees aren’t going to have many takers for an outfielder, especially a 32-year old outfielder like Gardner, when there is such talent out there on the free agent market. Some teams may shy away from Upton since he declined a qualifying offer this winter and will be attached to draft pick compensation but that is not the case with Cespedes. Cespedes was traded to the New York Mets this season and is ineligible for the qualifying offer. No one is going to give up good prospects for Gardner with Cespedes out there on the market.

So Upton isn’t signing until Davis does and Cespedes isn’t signing until Upton does and the Yankees couldn’t dream of trading Gardner until Cespedes signs. Get it? Confused? Me too. That’s the baseball offseason though. Enjoy it. 

Updated 2016 MLB Draft Order

The Washington Nationals pulled some last minute Christmas shopping last week and signed former New York Mets infielder Daniel Murphy to a three-year deal. Murphy was offered a qualifying offer by the Mets and rejected the offer leaving Washington to sacrifice a first round draft pick for his services. This is Yankees-related news because the Yankees move up another slot in the draft while the Nationals have to wait until at least the second round to pick. Let's take a look at the updated 2016 MLB Draft order after the Nationals signed Murphy.

1. Phillies
2. Reds
3. Braves
4. Rockies
5. Brewers
6. Athletics
7. Marlins
8. Padres
9. Tigers
10. White Sox
11. Mariners
12. Red Sox
13. Rays
14. Orioles
15. Indians
16. Twins
17. Angels
18. Astros
19. Yankees

Remember the first 10 picks are protected every single season so every pick from the Phillies pick to the White Sox pick is protected no matter what they do or who they sign. This offseason 20 free agents were offered qualifying offers with three of those players accepting their deals. Two players, Marco Estrada and Hisashi Iwakuma, went back to their original teams leaving nine players left on the market that are linked to draft pick compensation. Theoretically, although highly unlikely, the Yankees could climb all the way to the 11th spot in the draft. 

Yankees Edition:What I Want for Christmas, Starting Pitching

It's almost Christmas Day people, get excited. While many are scrambling to get their shopping completed, their presents wrapped and their plans and work week's done I am just over here scouring the free agent market wondering what I would want for Christmas if I were the New York Yankees. The Yankees presumably are interested in many starting pitchers and some have even gone as far to say that the team with six starting pitching options already "needs" another pitcher. Since it's the holiday season and it's time to reach for the stars I'm going for it with this Christmas list I'm sending to Santa this year.

The starting pitching market is absolutely stacked so take your pick. Ian Kennedy, Wei-Yin Chen, Doug Fister, Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda was available through the posting system, Henderson Alvarez before the Oakland A's snatched him up, Cliff Lee, Mark Buehrle, Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Kendrick, Mike Minor and a slew of others but one guy is probably better than them all, and younger than most of them too. Mike Leake

Leake is a 28-year old starting pitcher that pitched for the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds last season. He's not the ace the Yankees "need" but he is a durable arm that can give you 200 innings every single season. Leake was traded mid-season 2015 meaning he is not attached to any draft pick compensation making all the more attractive, even more so than Chen who recently announced he wanted $100 million or Gallardo who in my opinion is just average.

Leake  has posted a 3.0, 1.5 and 2.9 WAR in each of his last three seasons respectively and would be an obvious upgrade over Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia or maybe even Michael Pineda who battles with consistency year in and year out. If I'm the Yankees I'm asking for Leake or a Leake clone. Young, durable, a pitcher that allows the team to keep the 20th overall Draft pick and a pitcher that can make the team better.

Santa, make it happen dude.

FYI: Nine Teams Can Help the Yankees Draft Status

The New York Yankees have all signs pointing to holding onto their first round draft pick this winter rather than sacrificing it to sign a high-priced free agent. This would likely take them out of the bidding for the likes of Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo and others leaving the other 29 MLB teams to bid and sacrifice their picks. The Yankees have a total of nine teams that can help them improve their draft status in 2016 and all they have to go is go out, go big, spend big and bring in a big name to excite their fan base all at the expense of their draft pick.

Just as a reminder, the first 10 picks in the draft are protected so the best the Yankees could do conceivably, although highly unlikely, is the 11^th pick in the draft in a perfect world. New York started out 22^nd overall and have seen two first round picks sacrificed by the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks leaving the Yankees in the 20^th position.

These nine teams can help the Yankees and here they are in ascending order: 

Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Houston Astros.

Did New York Dodge a Bullet Not Signing Shark?

We learned last week before the Winter Meetings even kicked off down in Nashville that the San Francisco Giants signed Jeff Samardzija to a five-year deal worth $90 million. The Giants wasted no time after missing out on Zack Grienke who signed that legendary contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks but did they do the Yankees a favor? Did New York dodge a bullet by not signing the man known as "Shark?"

First and foremost the Giants will have to surrender a draft pick for Samardzija's services. Samardzija was offered a qualifying offer by his former team the Chicago White Sox and declined forcing San Francisco to sacrifice the 19th pick overall. With the Greinke signing and the Samardzija signing the Yankees now own the 20th pick overall in the draft, is that worth a pitcher with a live arm that hasn't put it all together yet?

I know what you're thinking, "But the team just did that with Nathan Eovaldi this season why couldn't they do that with Samardzija next season?" They could, or they couldn't. I don't know. I fully acknowledge that Samardzija was a bit late to the party obviously and is still, for lack of a better word, raw, in terms of pitching with the sky as the limit. The Yankees essentially gave up a guy that wasn't good enough to be in the rotation and not really valuable in the bullpen plus Martin Prado, who don't get me wrong was very valuable, for Eovaldi where it would only cost money and a pick for Samardzija. The difference here though is that the Yankees had four potential starting rotation spots at that time and the team probably has about seven at this point, Samardzija would be an upgrade but he'd also be a bit redundant at this point.

Samardzija is 30 years old and had a pretty bad season when all final tallies were made. Shark finished with a 4.96 ERA and a 4.23 FIP to show that the ERA was an accurate representation of his struggles. Shark did throw 214 innings despite it all and pitched like an ace in 2014 posting a 2.99 ERA and 3.20 FIP, but that was in the National League. This is the American League and this specifically the American League East, that's a totally different ballgame.

Samardzija would have been nice, and if you believe in Larry Rothschild's ability as a miracle worker and pitching coach he would have been a great signing, but he wasn't a signing that made sense for the New York Yankees. I know he's 30 years old and got a late start to the show, meaning in development he may only be around 27 years old or so, but the Yankees may need the draft pick and the $90 million more than yet another project and yet another question mark in an already crowded rotation.

How Will Qualifying Offers Affect Yankees Free Agency Plans?

With the qualifying offer number set at $15.8 million and a laundry list of players that I predicted to receive said qualifying offer earlier today I wanted to take a stab at whether those offers would affect the Yankees free agency plans for 2016. Usually you can use the past as an indicator or a stepping stone for the future but honestly that won't help us here. Before the 2014 season the team wen't crazy on the free agent market surrendering draft picks for Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury while last year the team stockpiled draft picks in an effort to jump start and rebuild the farm system.

The Yankees are barely a season removed from their international haul that cost them $30 million for a crew of 16-year old international free agents and the team is also less than six months removed from adding James Kaprielian, Kyle Holder, Jeff Degano and others to the farm from the MLB Draft. With this season's free agency crop as deep as it has been in recent memory this may be the season that proves to be the first free agent market that's worth mortgaging the future for, especially with the Yankees picking at the end of the first round once again in the 2016 Draft. Below is a list of players that I feel like will receive a qualifying offer and the bolded players are players I believe the Yankees will be interested in, not necessarily sign.

LHP Wei-Yin Chen - Baltimore Orioles
1B/DH Chris Davis - Baltimore Orioles
C Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles
OF Jason Heyward - St. Louis Cardinals
RHP Jeff Samardzija - Chicago White Sox
OF Dextor Fowler - Chicago Cubs
RHP Zack Greinke - Los Angeles Dodgers (if he opts out)
OF Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals (if he declines his player option worth $12.5 million)
RHP Hisashi Iwakuma - Seattle Mariners (They want him back anyway)
RHP John Lackey - St. Louis Cardinals
OF Justin Upton - San Diego Padres
RHP Jordan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals
LHP Brett Anderson - Los Angeles Dodgers
INF Ian Desmond - Washington Nationals
INF Daniel Murphy - New York Mets
OF Colby Rasmus - Houston Astros

The Yankees will not receive any draft compensation for their free agents this season, Stephen Drew, Chris Capuano and Chris Young, so any players signed that are attached to draft pick compensation will negatively affect the future of the farm system in my opinion. With that said I think the Yankees could target a David Price, a Mike Leake, a Ben Zobrist or a Johnny Cueto and avoid the draft pick compensation or the team may give up a pick for Justin Upton or Jordan Zimmerman. Other than that it looks like the Yankees will be picking somewhere around the #18-22 position next June for the 2016 MLB First Year Players Draft. There just isn't that's realistic enough to give up a draft pick for. Greinke is not coming to the Bronx, Zimmerman probably isn't either and Heyward is just a pipe dream that I will hold onto all offseason long.