Best Rotation in the AL East?

Leading the charge in 2012

I read an article from Yahoo! Sports stating that, going into the 2012 season, the Tampa Bay Rays have the best rotation in the AL East. At first I wasn't really surprised to see that, but after reading the article and seeing that they only went over the top 3 in the Rays rotation, and then saw the rest of it almost as an afterthought, I decided to see how the Rays rotation stacked up against the Yankees rotation.

I chose Baseball Reference's version of WAR to compare all the pitchers. I'll admit that I don't quite understand how either B-R or Fangraphs do their WAR calculations, but I know they're different. So I took a shot and choose B-R. Hey, I had a 50/50 shot at which is better.

Here is the proposed 2012 rotation for the Rays, with their 2011 bWAR as well as some notes afterwards on whether we can expect an increase or decrease in that stat -

James Shields - 6.1 His career average bWAR in a season is 2.95, and being 30 years old I really don't think he can keep up that career high bWAR from last season. So I expect to see a drop.

Jeremy Hellickson - 4.2 Hellickson had a pretty low strikeout rate of 5.6, and coming into his 3rd season in MLB, I fully expect is bWAR to drop. I really think a bWAR of around 3.0 sounds about right.

David Price - 3.7 David's bWAR in 2010 was a 5.3, and generally a rookie pitcher does very well due to the "surprise factor". I mean, it's hard to prepare for a pitcher you've never seen before. But even though I don't see him being a 5.3 pitcher again, I think getting up to around 4.5 is reasonable.

Jeff Niemann - 1.1 After 3+ seasons in MLB I believe we've seen him strikeout as many as he ever will, even though his strikeout rate has gone up in each of the last three years. Coupling that with the fact he had the same bWAR in 2011, I don't see any change happening here.

Wade Davis - .2 Wade had a bWAR of 1.8 in 2010, and in 2011 his strikeout rate dropped for the 3rd straight season. Although I'm not totally convinced he'll have a higher bWAR in 2012, I'll go ahead and assume he will to be on the safe side.

Let me point out that there's a good chance that Matt Moore could be in the rotation for the majority of the season for the Rays. He did throw 164.1 innings last year (combined majors + minors), so theoretically he could throw around 200. However, I read the chat transcript over at MLBTR where Tim Dierkes implied that Matt wouldn't have a full workload for Tampa Bay. Seeing his innings go up from 123 in 2009 to 144 in 2010, I can see where the Rays may limit him a bit.

So what about the New York Yankees projected rotation in 2012?

CC Sabathia - 6.9 CC has had an average bWAR of 5.4 with the Yankees, and that 6.9 is his career high. So a reduction is to be expected. Although judging by his three-year average I don't see it going down by much.

Hiroki Kuroda - 3.7 Hiro's bWAR in 2010 was 2.5, and coupled with the fact he's moving to a much tougher league/division, I don't think I'm alone in expecting his bWAR to go down a bit in 2012.

Ivan Nova - 3.6 So far in MLB Ivan's strikeout rate has been 5.4, and that bothers me a bit. Not to the point that I'd like to see the Yankees shop him in a trade or something, but I don't see how he continues where he left off from last season.

Michael Pineda - 2.8 Although Robinson Cano's friend is moving to a tougher division, he was still in the American League, his strikeout rate is pretty high, and it's hard not to see a 23 year-old improving.

Phil Hughes/Freddy Garcia - 0.0/3.4 I'm going to go ahead and use their average bWAR as a guess as to what either one will do in 2012, because I see Freddy's going down while Phil's would go up. So a 1.7 sounds about right.

Notice that I'm assuming AJ Burnett is not going to be on the team, and therefore would not affect things. Call it wishful thinking or what-have-you, but I'm leaving AJ out of it.

Above I lined up the pitchers based on their 2011 bWARs, and I'm going to keep it that way in the head-to-head part here. The winner of each battle is in bold.

CC Sabathia vs. James Shields

Hiroki Kuroda vs. James Hellickson

Ivan Nova vs. David Price

Michael Pineda vs. Jeff Niemann

Phil Hughes/Freddy Garcia vs. Wade Davis

The second match-up was no mistake, as I can see both men being equal to one another. So at this point it looks like the New York Yankees have the better rotation going into 2012. However, we have to remember that Matt Moore could be around for 175 or so innings, and if we use him instead of Wade Davis I'd have to give the edge to the Rays pitcher.

So in conclusion, I believe that the Rays and Yankees 2012 projected pitching rotations are even. Perhaps that's not the conclusion Yankee fans were looking for but keep this in mind... the Bombers scored 160 more runs than the Rays last season, and I don't see that changing.

AJ Burnett "Deadline" For Trade Is Saturday

Pittsburgh? Nooooooooooooooooooo!

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees have placed a soft deadline of Saturday to trade AJ Burnett or not. I just hope that this gets done because we all know how much of a head case that AJ Burnett is. I cannot fathom where his head would be at if he had to face trade rumors and not get traded. Not to mention that I want to see Hughes get his last real shot at being a starter in the Yankees organization. We will see what happens between today and Saturday but until then here is Mr. Rosenthal's write up.

The soft deadline for the A.J. Burnett trade discussions is Saturday – the day before the New York Yankees’ pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Tampa.

The Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates continue to discuss a Burnett deal, but as of Wednesday morning the teams remained at an impasse, according to major-league sources.

If a deal is completed, the Yankees plan to move quickly to sign free-agent designated hitter Raul Ibanez and infielder Eric Chavez, sources said. One or both of those signings could occur even if Burnett is not moved.

At this point, the Pirates are perhaps the Yankees’ only realistic trade partner. While the Yankees have discussed Burnett with three other teams, a trade is not likely with any of them.

Talks with the Cleveland Indians about a possible Burnett-for-Travis Hafner exchange “never got serious,” one source said.

The Los Angeles Angels were willing to part with their own left-handed DH, Bobby Abreu, but the Angels are on Burnett’s no-trade list and the pitcher will not approve such a deal, sources said. His family lives in Maryland, and his wife, Karen, does not like to fly.

The identity of the fourth club that checked in on Burnett is not known, but their interest has been lukewarm, sources said.

-Ken Rosenthal

Countdown To Pitchers & Catchers

We are inching closer and closer...

Countdown To Pitchers & Catchers

5 more days until pitchers and catchers report, although Michael Pineda has already showed up among others. Can you tell that I am excited? lol

Getting to know Hiroki Kuroda

Boy, you're ugly when you're pitching.

Do yourself a favor and read this article by Alex Belth over at Bronx Banter. It's a great look into Hiroki Kuroda, and like me it should make you feel a lot better about "Hiro" being a Yankee. Hell, if things go well I could see myself wanting the team to bring him back in 2013.

Should the Yankees deal for Hafner?

They say vertical pinstripes are slimming.

So the latest AJ Burnett trade rumor has to do with dealing him to the Cleveland Indians for Travis Hafner. Hafner is owed $13 million for 2012, and has a club option for 2013 at another $13 million (with a buyout of $2.75 million). So the money thing would work out pretty well without any having to be exchanged, as the Yankees would save $3.5 million this season (the buyout wouldn't affect the team's payroll until 2013) and would already have a strong bat to face right-handed pitchers in a platoon with Andruw Jones facing left-handed pitchers.

Although that would depend on whether the Indians believe Burnett is worth $8.625 million a season, as the difference between what him and Travis make is $17.25 million (including the buyout that Cleveland would have had to pay Hafner next season, assuming they wouldn't want to bring him back), and AJ is under contract for two more seasons. So it's possible the Yankees would have to add a couple million dollars into the deal to get it done (at most the Pirates have been reported to only want to take on $15 million of Burnett's deal, meaning they think he's only worth $7.5 million a season).

And before you come to a conclusion on whether the Yankees should even entertain this idea, take a look at Pronk's numbers against right-handed pitchers last season. In 260 plate appearances vs. RHPs he hit .302/.404/.482. Even in 2010 it was pretty darn good, as he put up a line of .279/.385/.478 in 351 plate appearances vs. RHPs. 2009? .292/.375/.490 in 293 plate appearances vs. RHPs. I think it goes without saying that he would be a more ideal guy to have than Raul Ibanez, Johnny Damon, or Hideki Matsui with the bat.

Notice that last bit? "With the bat"? Yeah, I added that part because outside of having a superior bat against right-handed pitchers, the guy hasn't stepped foot on the field defensively since 2007 (91 innings). And even then the guy hasn't played the field regularly since 2003, when he was at 1B for the Indians in 329 innings. So we're talking about a DH-only guy, and as I've made it clear I'm not a fan of DH-only players on the team. Then again, it is only for one year, so perhaps I should bend my rule on things here.

Lastly I took a look at his injury history. Last season Hafner missed a decent amount of time with foot (20 days) and oblique (30 days) issues. And on top of that he missed 4 days due to ankle problems. And as you can see at the link, it wasn't the first season in which Pronk has battled health issues.

In all, although I think he'd make the best DH platoon option out of the names we've heard, his injury history just don't make me want to see this trade with Cleveland happen. Before getting to the injury history I was leaning towards rooting for it to happen, but seeing that he missed 52 games last season pushes me to the "no thanks" side of the argument.

Jorge Soler a Yankee?

It's not somebody that could step into RF next season, but I do like hearing that the Yankees could still take advantage of the rules surrounding International Free Agents.

2:18pm: The Yankees have serious interest in Soler, ESPN.com's Buster Olney tweets.

12:33pm: Many teams remain involved in the bidding for 19-year-old Cuban prospect Jorge Soler, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). The Cubs have been extensively linked to the outfielder, but they’re not the only club involved.

The Yankees are in on the bidding, tweets David Kaplan of CSN Chicago, and Heyman suggests the Marlins could be involved. Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald hears that “a good number” of teams have interest (Twitter link). Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectusexplained yesterday that Soler would rank 38th or 39th on his list of top prospects.

As long as the contract the Yankees would give Soler doesn't reach the reported 4 year, $27.5 million, that the Cubs were willing to offer (sorry, can't remember where I read that originally, so I can't link to it) then I'm happy about this. You can see from my last piece on going after Cole Hamels, it would require the team to let Granderson go, and one of Mason Williams or Jorge Soler could be his heir in CF (or LF with Gardner moving to CF).

If AJ Is Traded Who Gets The 5th Spot?

Who Wins The 5th Spot?

Anyone who is a Yankees fan and has been paying attention knows that the New York Yankees are trying to trade AJ Burnett to 4 teams, namely the Pittsburgh Pirates. The latest via Buster Olney on twitter has said that the Pirates are willing to pay $13-$15 million dollars and include two non roster players (prospects). The Yankees are not blown away by either of the prospects included but I think in the end they got close enough to their "50/50 split" on AJ's remaining salary so I see us giving in and the deal getting done some time this week. Now that everyone is up to date with the news let us do what blogs do best... speculate. 

Vote for me... or else

The competition for the 5th starter spot would essentially fall down to Freddy Garcia vs Phil Hughes. Last season we got way more then what we could have ever wanted or expected out of Freddy Garcia. 25 starts, 12 wins, 146 innings pitched, striking out just enough, not walking many, leaving runners on, and having a positive WAR. All this on a minor league deal. Surprisingly , according to Fan Graphs, Bill James and all their predictors are expecting a lot of the same from Freddy Garcia in 2012, minus the wins. Wait.... what? He does not miss many bats at all and eventually the "junk baller" and soft throwing has to catch up with him, especially in the AL East... right?

Maybe this is why he pitched so bad last season...

Look, we all know that Phil Hughes had a terrible 2011. We all know that he came to Spring Training apparently out of shape and eventually he went to the DL with the phantom "dead arm" injury. 74 major league innings, 14 starts, 5 wins (and losses), an anomaly in my opinion of a 5 point K/9 ratio which was crazy low to his career norms, not to mention his FIP was more then a run lower then his ERA was (which is encouraging for those who do not understand sabermetrics), and still managed to almost make a full point in WAR. Nobody on Fan Graphs is expecting much out of Phil Hughes in 2012 either, which I cannot blame anyone for thinking so.

We all know that this is going to be a make or break season for Phil Hughes, while Freddy Garcia is just trying to elongate his career. There are many things you have to consider when making such a decision. First and foremost, what is best for the team? If we're getting an in shape Phil Hughes , much like the 2010 version, with a fire lit under his seat... then it is Phil Hughes. Secondly you have to consider what is best for the long term? Again, Phil Hughes. Phil can continue to increase his innings while being young and under team control for a while. Freddy Garcia is a stop gap and if Brian Cashman knew we was going to trade for Pineda and sign Kuroda then Garcia would not be a Yankee right now in my opinion. You also have to consider the player, the players morale, the clubhouse, etc. Freddy Garcia has been very open in the fact that he actually wants to and prefers to play for the Yankees. He also said, granted last season while on a minor league deal and not his major league deal he possesses today, that he would be willing to pitch out of the Yankees bullpen. Sounds like we have a perfect back up and fall back plan if Hughes faltered. 

If you are asking me right now my 5th starter is Phil Hughes. The potential is there and the risk and reward is there. This is not 2011 where we have question marks in the rotation and we're trying to bandaid a rotation together. We have a pretty impressive top 4 in Sabathia, Pineda, Kuroda, and Nova. We can afford to take a chance on Phil Hughes in the 5th spot and hopefully strike lightning in a bottle. If he falters he can take his bullpen experience to the pen and we can get the "rock" that is Garcia in the 5th spot. Sounds like a win-win situation and those are always good positions to be in...

Countdown To Pitchers & Catchers

Check back tomorrow, and every day, as we count down to February 19th and the day that pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.

Cespedes signs with Oakland

Yoenis Cespedes, the 26-year-old Cuban outfielder, agreed to terms Monday on a contract with the Oakland Athletics. Cespedes signed a four-year deal worth $36 million.
via - Yahoo Sports

Along with the trade of Jesus Montero, now two of my wishes for the Yankees this season will not come true. And I'm not confident at all that the team will make Teixeira stick to batting right-handed. Just goes to show that I'm much better off spewing my stuff here than in the Yankee front office.

I'm not really upset about the fact Cespedes won't be in New York, as it's hard to be sad about not getting a guy that you don't know much about. An AAV of $9 million is a little more than I thought he'd cost (the Marlins apparently had the 2nd best offer of $36 million over 6 years), but it would still be cheaper than it'll cost to bring back Nick Swisher, which I believe is the best option currently available at the end of the season. Meaning the team is going to have to start thinking about somebody that can hit for a high batting average elsewhere, like at 3B while moving ARod to full-time DH (an inevitability), or maybe at SS to replace Derek Jeter.