Meet the 2019 Yankees: Gary Sanchez

Pitchers and catchers report today down in Tampa, Florida at George M. Steinbrenner Field and while we have already met two pitchers from the 2019 Yankees, we have yet to meet a catcher. Why not start it off by meeting THE catcher for the New York Yankees this season, Gary Sanchez. Meet the 2019 Yankees: The Gary is definitely not lazy Edition.

Gary Sanchez, 26-years old, is a right-handed batting and throwing catcher for the New York Yankees. With his 6’2” and 230 lb. frame (according to Baseball Reference, he looks much thinner this offseason) the Yankees have potentially one of the best hitting catchers in all of baseball, assuming health and assuming that his poor production in 2018 was injury related or a sophomore slump of a fluke.

Gary Sanchez was born on December 2, 1992 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Sanchez grew up in La Victoria, Dominican Republic where he was raised predominantly by his mother, Orquidia Hererra, and his grandmother, Agustina Pena, along with his three brothers and one sister. Sanchez was signed by the New York Yankees out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year old in July of 2009. Sanchez received $3 million in a signing bonus and began his season with the Gulf Coast Yankees. By the 2011 season Sanchez was already considered to be one of the best prospects in all of Major League Baseball according to Baseball America. Sanchez was widely considered the Yankees best prospect by the 2012 season according to Baseball America and the fourth best prospect in all of baseball. Sanchez bounced around and worked his way through the Yankees system until the 2015 season when the young catcher, fresh off an appearance at the 2015 All-Star Futures Game, was promoted to the Major Leagues.

Sanchez made his MLB debut as a pinch hitter on October 3, 2015 and was included on the Yankees 25-man roster for the 2015 American League Wild Card Game in the postseason. The Yankees were eliminated by the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Game, prematurely ending their season, leading the team to send Sanchez to the Arizona Fall League for the winter. Sanchez would lead the AFL in home runs that season and was named the Fall Stars Game MVP as well as being named the second-best prospect in the AFL by Baseball America. After a strong winter the Yankees decided to trade catcher John Ryan Murphy to the Minnesota Twins for Aaron Hicks, thus opening the door for Sanchez in the Bronx.

Sanchez dueled Austin Romine for the back up job to Brian McCann in 2016, but ultimately began the season back in Triple-A. Sanchez was called up once in May during that season before coming back to the Bronx on August 3^rd, this time to stay. Sanchez began assaulting MLB hitters after his call up and ended the season with a .299 average with 20 home runs and 42 RBI in just 53 games played. Gary finished second in the American League Rookie of the Year Award vote behind the Detroit Tigers starter Michael Fulmer and looked to be the Yankees starting catcher for the 2017 season.

Sanchez was named an AL All-Star in 2017 as a reserve and he participated in the 2017 Home Run Derby. Prior to the competition Sanchez’s spot in the Derby was questioned by then Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Logan Morrison, who stated that Sanchez did not deserve an invitation to the Derby, having hit only 13 home runs compared to Morrison’s 24 home runs. Sanchez went on to hit his 31^st home run in 2017 on September 14, breaking the record for most home runs in a single season by a Yankees catcher, passing Yogi Berra who hit 30 in 1952 and 1956, and Jorge Posada who did it in 2003. Sanchez helped the Yankees get within one game of the World Series in 2017, losing to the Houston Astros in Game 7 of the ALCS.

Sanchez struggled in 2018 before news of a shoulder injury that required surgery popped up during the offseason. Sanchez finished the 2018 season, his worst season statistically, with a .168 average, 18 home runs and 53 RBI in just 89 games played. Gary also led the league in passed balls with 18 while also making two separate trips to the disabled list with a pair of groin injuries after being criticized for a lack of hustle.

Gary isn’t lazy. He may have been during his minor league years with the Yankees, he himself even credited the birth of his daughter for the transformation from a player “going through the motions” to a player lauded for his work ethic, but now Gary is scary… and he will be in 2019 as well. Write it down.

Meet the 2019 Yankees: JA Happ

The New York Yankees got everything they could have asked for, well… almost everything, from JA Happ last season after acquiring him from the Toronto Blue Jays for a package made up of Brandon Drury and others. New York liked him so much, in fact, that on December 17, 2018 the team decided to bring him back on a two-year deal worth $34 million with an option for a third season. Yankees fans are already pretty familiar with Happ after his 7-0 record with the team in 2018, and his subsequent “let down” for lack of a better word in the postseason against the Boston Red Sox, but for those who aren’t, let’s meet him. Your 2019 New York Yankees, here is lefty JA Happ.

JA Happ, 36-years old, is a left-handed starting pitcher that handles himself well on the mound with his 6’5” and 205 lb. frame. Happ possesses a 93 MPH four-seam fastball, a 91 MPH sinker, an 86 MPH slider, an 86 MPH changeup, and a curveball that he rarely throws at 76 MPH.

James Anthony Happ was born on October 19, 1982 in Peru, Illinois with two older sisters. Happ attended High School at St. Bede Academy, where the lefty was a four-year letter winner in both basketball and baseball. Happ graduated from St. Bede in 2001 and continued his amateur baseball career at Northwestern University where he majored in history. Happ also played for the Northwestern Wildcats where he was named All-Big Ten Conference First Team in his freshman, sophomore, and junior years while attending the university. After his junior season the Philadelphia Phillies drafted the lefty in the third round, 92^nd overall, of the 2004 MLB First Year Players Draft. Happ signed immediately and was assigned to the Phillies minor league system.

Happ toiled in the Phillies minor league system and the Arizona Fall League through the 2007 season until Philadelphia called up the lefty to make his major league debut on June 30, 2007. Happ made one start against the New York Mets before being sent back to Triple-A for the remainder of the 2007 season. Happ started the 2008 season back in Triple-A as well, but he was back in the majors again starting against the Mets again on July 4^th. Happ was up and down between Triple-A and the majors for the remainder of the 2008 season until he became a mainstay in the Phillies rotation in 2009. Happ, with a World Series ring after the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, entered the rotation in 2009 and led Philadelphia back to the World Series in 2009, this time against the New York Yankees. The Yankees would win the series in six games, sending Happ and the Phillies home with a bitter taste in their mouths.

Happ was back in the Phillies rotation in 2010 until the team traded him to the Houston Astros on July 29^th along with Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar in exchange for Roy Oswalt. Happ remained in Houston until the 2012 season when he was traded again, this time to the Toronto Blue Jays along with Brandon Lyon and David Carpenter for Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Asher Wojciechowski, David Rollins, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, and Kevin Comer. Happ pitched primarily out of the bullpen with the Blue Jays through the 2014 season before he was once again traded, this time to the Seattle Mariners for Michael Saunders. Happ was used primarily as a starter for the Mariners in 2015 before being shipped to the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 31, 2015, Happ hit free agency after the 2015 season and could finally decide his own landing spot after being traded so many times before, and the lefty decided that Toronto was where he wanted to pitch after signing a three-year deal worth $36 million with the Blue Jays keeping him in Toronto through the 2018 season.

Happ lasted in Toronto until July 26, 2018 when the Blue Jays shipped him to the New York Yankees for outfielder Billy McKinney and third baseman Brandon Drury. Happ remained with the Yankees for the remainder of the 2018 season posting a 7-0 record, helping propel New York to the postseason as a Wild Card winner for the second consecutive season. The Yankees finished the season with 100 victories, but their season ended prematurely at the hand of the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Happ returned to the Yankees on a free agent deal after the 2018 season, this time for two-years and $34 million including an option for a third season.

Not that I have to again, but welcome back to the team, welcome back to the organization, and welcome back to the family JA.

Happy Reporting Day for Yankee Pitchers and Catchers...

Photo Credit: Bryan Hoch via Instagram

The Dawn of the 2019 MLB Season…

After a painfully long off-season filled with too many rumors and rampant speculation, Yankee pitchers and catchers officially report to training camp in Tampa, FL today to begin preparations for the upcoming season. Granted, many of the Yankee players are already in Tampa, working out informally, but Spring Training officially gets underway today with the first scheduled workout for pitchers and catchers tomorrow. 

Meanwhile, position players can spend Valentine’s Day with their loved ones although many, like Aaron Judge, Troy Tulowitzki, Didi Gregorius, Clint Frazier and others, are already in camp in advance of Monday’s reporting date. The first full team workout will be next Tuesday.

I really thought there would be movement with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper this week. Of course, I’ve been thinking that every week since the start of the new year.  At this point, I don’t really know when they’ll sign. I still think they’ll be in some team’s camp, either in Florida or Arizona, before Opening Day but who knows. I feel so bad for the other guys. The free agents not named Machado or Harper. So many guys who can make a difference on a Major League roster, like Marwin Gonzalez, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, and they can’t find work. Clearly something has to change. For the Yankees, they appear to have the guys who will compete for the Opening Day roster barring any last-minute additions. Even if the Yankees didn’t sign Machado or Harper, they’ve been one of the more active teams this off-season. 

The biggest battle to watch this Spring is the first base competition between Luke Voit and Greg Bird. By the way, Happy Birthday to Luke!  He is 28 years old today. DJ LeMahieu will apparently also see time at first in his role as the utility player for the team (which makes no sense to me). I’d like to see Voit win the job outright, continuing his late season run from last year.  I like his energy and excitement.  It’s infectious and spreads to his teammates. I would love to see Greg Bird hit the way we know he can but, like many people, I am tired of waiting. My guess is Bird goes to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to find himself if Voit wins the job. Bird’s sweet left-handed swing would look beautiful in Yankee Stadium but I am losing confidence we’ll ever see it consistently. For as much as I want Voit to win the job, I wouldn’t be disappointed if Bird killed it this Spring to reclaim the position for himself. That would be a great problem to have. 

I just can’t wrap my head around the thought that Troy Tulowitzki is the starting shortstop. In my mind, he’s done. If he shows anything in camp, great, but realistically, I am not expecting anything from him. Team defense, in my opinion, is better served with Gleyber Torres at short and DJ LeMahieu, and his gold glove, at second until Didi Gregorius returns later this summer. Tulo is such a Wild Card at the moment. He could make the Opening Day roster and be the starting shortstop or he could by cut by the end of March when the team identifies its best 25 players. Honestly, neither would surprise me. But I think LeMahieu is the better player at this point and the Yankees have a greater investment in him. I find it very hard to believe that LeMahieu is simply the new Ronald Torreyes. He is better and deserves better. 

Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated

Out in left field, dependence on Brett Gardner as the starter is flawed logic. A fourth outfielder at best at this stage of his career, it would be better for Clint Frazier to win the job (unlikely) or put Giancarlo Stanton in left more often which is always a risk since he carried the injury-risk label until his monster 2017 season when he won the NL MVP Award for the Miami Marlins. DH is the best way to keep Stanton healthy and hitting the way he did during his MVP year. Jacoby Ellsbury, if healthy, looms as a threat to take a roster spot away from Frazier for Opening Day. I anxiously look forward to the day when Ellsbury and the Yankees part ways. While I don’t expect him on the field Opening Day, the possibility exists he is there if healthy.  The problem with Ellsbury is even if he is healthy, it won’t stay that way. The King of the DL will become the King of the new IL (“Injured List”). Let those insurance checks keep rolling in for Team Hal. 

The only other real competition will be the last spots in the bullpen. Tommy Kahnle is expected to take one of the jobs, assuming he can pitch like he did in 2017. I really hope that the last man in the pen is not Luis Cessa. That’s another guy I’d like to see leave. I would prefer the last spot go to either Domingo German or Jonathan Loaisiga as the swing man/spot starter assuming the Yankees do not bring anyone else into Camp.  Let German and Lasagna duke it out in the Spring with the best arm heading north to the Bronx in late March. Danny Farquhar probably looms as a sentimental favorite for many after last year’s brain hemorrhage. If Kahnle fails to win a job and Farquhar proves he should be one of the bullpen finalists, I’d like to see him get it. 

It’s an exciting time in the Yankees Universe. We have one of the best teams in Baseball right now. If this team can perform to its expectations, we should be watching Yankees baseball deep into October. Hopefully, this season will not see the Boston Red Sox spilling champagne on Yankee Stadium soil. It would be much better for the Yankees to return the favor with celebrations at Fenway Park while sounds of New York, New York reverberate through its halls. I know, it would be better for the Yankees to celebrate at home, in front of Yankee fans, but there’s a part of me that wants to see the Yankees in googles and bubbly in the very heart of the Red Sox Nation. 

I was a little disappointed to see Jorge Posada is joining the Miami Marlins organization as a special adviser.  I know, it was destined to be considering Jorge’s close relationship with Marlins CEO Derek Jeter but it’s still tough now that it is actually happening. 

Photo Credit: Getty Images

It’s difficult to watch 50% of the Core Four representing another MLB organization. Plus, a third Yankees retired number currently manages the team. I guess we should be thankful the Marlins are in the National League so the Yankees do not play them very often. Credit to Alex Rodriguez for maintaining his alliance with the Yankees after the end of his playing career.  I know part of it was the renegotiation of his playing contract into special services for Hal Steinbrenner, but A-Rod could have severed ties as he pursued his broadcast career with FOX and ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. Posada’s move makes me very thankful for Mariano Rivera, my favorite member of the Core Four. Rivera recently announced his intention to be a pitching consultant for the Yankees (teaching pitching in the organization in a to-be-determined role).  I’d really like to see the Yankees get Andy Pettitte back in the family. I’ve always thought he’d be a tremendous pitching coach and I’d love to see him transition back into pro coaching as an eventual successor for Larry Rothschild. We may have lost Jeter and Posada for now, but I don’t want to lose either Rivera or Pettitte. Eventually Don Mattingly will get fired.  Not that I want him to lose his job, but when the inevitable parting of the ways occurs, I am hopeful that Mattingly can find his way home.  Maybe not as a manager, but I look forward to the day when Donnie Baseball is a frequent visitor to Yankee Stadium again even if it is only for Spring Training and Old Timer’s Day.    

It’s exciting to see the images of Spring Training. I am glad we’re getting the band together again and look forward to the first exhibition game a week from Saturday in Fort Myers, FL against the hated Boston Red Sox. This is the year we take them down. AL East Championship, American League Championship, World Series Championship. The time is now. Let’s end Boston’s reign.

As always, Go Yankees!

Meet the 2019 Yankees: Adam Ottavino

The New York Yankees completed their super bullpen this offseason when they signed a right-hander originally out of New York named Adam Ottavino. Ottavino was signed to a three-year deal worth $27 million by the Yankees on January 24, 2019 to essentially replace the recently departed David Robertson in the pen. Ottavino was the first ever Yankee to be awarded the “0” uniform number, which is essentially the last single digit uniform number in the Yankee’s history. Let’s meet the man that should be giving Gary Sanchez absolute fits all season long. Let’s meet your 2019 Yankees. Let’s meet Brooklyn-native Adam Ottavino.

Adam Ottavino, 33-years old, is a right-handed pitcher that will stroll in from the Yankees bullpen with his 6’5” and 220 lb. frame all season long in the 6^th, 7^th, 8^th, and 9^th innings. Ottavino’s pitching sequence includes an 82 MPH slider, a 95 MPH sinker, an 88 MPH cutter, a 94 MPH four-seam fastball and a 90 MPH changeup that he uses from time-to-time. Ottavino is all movement and deception and will give Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez a nice challenge behind the dish with this repertoire. For what it’s worth, not that I think Ottavino will see much of the plate for the Yankees, Adam is also a switch-hitter, which may explain why the Yankees didn’t sign more left-handed hitters this winter. Ottavino can balance the lineup!

image credit Elite Sports NY

Adam Robert Ottavino was born on November 22, 1985 in Brooklyn, New York where he attended P.S. 39, The Henry Bristow School in the Park Slope neighborhood. Ottavino remained in Brooklyn throughout his High School years where he graduated from Berkley Carroll School. While at Berkley Carroll the right-handed pitcher caught the eye of the Tampa Bay Rays who selected Ottavino in the 30^th round of the 2003 MLB First Year Players Draft. Ottavino did not sign with Tampa and instead headed to Northeastern University to play college baseball for the Northeastern Huskies. While at Northeastern, Ottavino was able to compile both the single-season and all-time strikeouts records for the school while also earning the honor of being named American’s East Conference’s Pitcher of the Year in 2005.

After the 2005 season the St. Louis Cardinals came calling in the first round, 30^th overall, of the 2006 MLB First Year Players Draft. Ottavino signed quickly and was immediately assigned to the Cardinals minor league system. Ottavino toiled around in the minor league system for St. Louis before making his MLB debut for the team as a starting pitcher in 2010. Ottavino was re-assigned off the team’s 40-man roster after five appearances but was ultimately added back to the team’s 40-man roster after the 2011 season. The Cardinals ultimately placed Ottavino on waivers before the 2012 season and the Colorado Rockies came calling, claiming the right-hander off waivers on April 3, 2012 and immediately assigned him to their minor league system.

Ottavino also represented Team Italy in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. Ottavino made one appearance during the tournament, pitching three scoreless innings against Team Venezuela. 

It was the 2012 season that saw the Rockies begin developing Ottavino as a relief pitcher. It was during the 2013 season that Ottavino changed his number on his uniform to 0, an ode to the “O” in Ottavino. Ottavino struggled mightily during his transition from starter to the bullpen in 2013 and 2014, but the right-hander was moved to the Rockies closers role in 2015 after Colorado learned that closer LaTroy Hawkins struggled early on. Ottavino was not in the closer’s role for long though, unfortunately, after a scan determined that Adam had torn his ulnar collateral ligament. The UCL injury required Tommy John surgery and it ended his 2015 campaign prematurely. Despite the injury the Colorado Rockies showed their commitment to Ottavino, signing him to three-year deal worth $10.4 million. Ottavino spent the first part of the 2016 season on the disabled list before coming back completely healthy in 2017. Ottavino broke out in his contract season of 2018 and headed into free agency off the heels of easily his best season in the Majors.

The Yankees came calling and snatched up Ottavino off the free agent market to solidify and complete their bullpen. Welcome back to the great state of New York, welcome to the greatest organization in all of professional sports, and welcome to the family, Adam.

TGP Trivia and Fact of the Day for February 13th, 2019

Good morning Yankees family and welcome to, officially, the first day of spring training for the New York Yankees. Pitchers and catchers officially report to George M. Steinbrenner Field today, if they haven't already, signifying that baseball season is officially right around the corner. It also marks the beginning of the return of me as a daily (or as close as I can) writer here on the blog. Welcome back to me as well, did you miss me?

I have done a few different things here in the 7:00 am ET slot and this year will be no different. I will be posting either a Yankees fact or asking a trivia question that can be answered down in the comments section below. Let's have some fun with this and have some fun this season.

What player for the New York Yankees holds the MLB postseason record for most games, at-bats, runs, hits, singles, and doubles - and is tied for the most ever triples in postseason play?

Highlight below, no cheating!!, for the answer.



Derek Jeter



And a huge thank you and vow of appreciation to my amazing WIFE, Mrs. Kari Ann Burch. Without
you this, and nothing I do in this world, would be possible. I love you.

Bryce Harper v. Manny Machado

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are two players who see themselves as generational talents, both of which seeking to top the ginormous contract (13 yr, $325 million) bestowed upon Giancarlo Stanton by the Miami Marlins. That seems extremely improbable now based on the state of current market. Both Harper and Machado are 26-years-old and were selected in the top 3 of the draft 8 years ago (2010).

Photo: USA TODAY Sports

Harper was hyped extremely early and landed on the front of a Sports Illustrated cover at age 16 — labeled the “Chosen One.” When attending a showcase at Tropicana Field (Tampa Bay Rays’ home stadium), Harper hit a 502 foot blast. The following year, the prodigy was selected 1st overall by the Washington Nationals. His aspirations were as high as could be: his goals included to be the great baseball player ever and to make the Hall of Fame.

Machado received a lot of attention in his own right. Some scouts gave the then 17-year-old the nickname “A-Rod light.” He was a leader on the U18 USA team and contributed greatly in the Pan-Am Junior Championships in Venezuela, paving his team’s path to a gold medal. Machado was deemed a fantastic defender at short and was seen as a fundamentally sound hitter who would hit .300 at the big league level, providing slightly above average power as well. The Orioles made him the 3rd overall pick of the draft. 

Fast forward 8 years. Harper and Machado are free agents and hope to sign record-breaking deals. In this investigation, there are two main questions I am attempting to answer:

a. Who is the better player?

b. What salaries should they receive depending on the length of their contracts?

In order to determine who is the better ball player, I will examine where they stand in 4 out of the 5 tools of baseball: hitting (AVG and OBP), power (HR and SLG), fielding (UZR/150 and DRS), and speed (SB and BsR), as well as their durability. The arm tool is to be excluded for a number of reasons. For instance, Bryce Harper has recorded some of the hardest throws in the short history of Statcast. Back in 2017, the radar clocked one of his throws to home plate at 99.7 MPH. Interestingly enough, he was -5.5 outfield arm runs below average in 2018, per Fangraphs. Also, there is no arm strength metric for infielders (which includes Manny Machado). I think it is fair to say that there is not a direction correlation between arm runs above/below average and pure arm strength. Additionally, I feel that in the big scope of things, the arm tool is relatively insignificant. For instance, rookie 3B Miguel Andujar of the New York Yankees has a very strong arm, yet he recorded a -25 DRS (defensive runs saved). Fangraphs’ prospect experts Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen graded his arm a 70 (really good) on the 20-80 Scouting Scale. Nonetheless, Andujar’s advanced fielding metrics exemplify his defensive deficiencies. In other words, having a cannon of an arm does not necessarily translate to adequate fielding performance. That is exactly why I will be analyzing statistics that encompass defense as a whole. 

It is also important for me to note that for this investigation, I will be excluding the numbers from Machado and Harper’s 2012 season (when they were rookies). Although Bryce Harper registered nearly 600 PA that year, Machado barely eclipsed 200, which is far too small of a sample size. At that point, it makes more sense to leave that season out of the picture. Through omitting their statistics from 2012, the metric I generated will better gauge whether or not Machado and Harper were able to make adjustments after their first season in the MLB. The formula I used on the vast majority of statistics in this investigation is as follows:

(statistic in 2018 season * 0.3) + (same statistic in 2017 season * 0.25) + (same statistic in 2016 season * 0.175) + (same statistic in 2015 season *0.125) + (same statistic in 2014 season * 0.085) + (same statistic in 2013 season * 0.065) = metric for that particular statistic (AVG, HR, UZR/150, etc.)

As you can see, the formula incorporates their stats from the last 6 seasons (2013-18), with the most recent seasons weighted more heavily. What a player was able to do this past season is indisputably more predictive of future performance than what he was able to produce 6 years prior. We now begin by analayzing their hit tools: AVG and OBP.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 AVG: .249

Manny Machado’s 2018 AVG: .297

Bryce Harper’s AVG metric (calculated through formula outlined above): .279

Manny Machado’s AVG metric (calculated through formula outlined above): .283

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 OBP: .393

Manny Machado’s 2018 OBP: .367

Bryce Harper’s OBP metric: .397

Manny Machado’s OBP metric: .340

Score (only metrics for each stat count towards this score, not 2018 statistic): Bryce Harper 1 v. Manny Machado 1

We are now ready to take a closer look at a couple of their power tools: HR and SLG.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 HRs: 34

Manny Machado’s 2018 HRs: 37

Bryce Harper’s HR metric: 29

Manny Machado‘s HR metric: 32

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 SLG: 0.496

Manny Machado‘s 2018 SLG: 0.538

Bryce Harper‘s SLG metric: 0.523

Manny Machado’s SLG metric: 0.500

Power tool score: Bryce Harper 1 v. Manny Machado 1

Overall score: Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 2

Fielding is the third tool we will assess, specifically UZR/150 and DRS.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 UZR/150 (in all outfield positions combined): -16.7

Manny Machado’s 2018 UZR/150 as a SS: -6.9

Manny Machado’s 2018 UZR/150 as a 3B: 14.9

Bryce Harper‘s UZR/150 metric: -2.9

Manny Machado’s UZR/150 metric as a SS (does not account for the 53 innings he played there in 2015): -4.8

Manny Machado‘s UZR/150 metric as a 3B (does not account for the 143 innings he played there in 2018 with the Dodgers): 7.54

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 DRS: -26

Manny Machado’s 2018 DRS as a SS: -13

Manny Machado’s 2018 DRS as a 3B: 3

Bryce Harper‘s DRS metric: -5.94

Manny Machado’s DRS metric as a SS: -9

Manny Machado‘s DRS metric as a 3B: 11.25

Fielding tool score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 0 v. Manny Machado 2

Fielding tool score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 0

Overall score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 4 v. Manny Machado 2

Overall score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 4

The fourth and final tool we will judge is speed: SB and BsR.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 SBs: 13

Manny Machado’s 2018 SBs: 14

Bryce Harper‘s 2018 SB metric: 10 

Manny Machado’s 2018 SB metric: 9

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 BsR: 0.4

Manny Machado’s 2018 BsR: 1.2

Bryce Harper‘s BsR metric: 0.97

Manny Machado’s BsR metric: -1.0

Run tool score: Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 0

Overall score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 6 v. Manny Machado 2

Overall score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 4 v. Manny Machado 4

Harper and Machado will only be worth hefty contracts if they can stay on the field with regularity; as a result, we will take a closer look at how durable they have been over the past 6 years.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 G (games): 159

Manny Machado’s 2018 G: 162

Bryce Harper’s G metric: 136

Manny Machado‘s G metric: 152

Overall final score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 6 v. Manny Machado 3

Overall final score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 4 v. Manny Machado 5

It is rather difficult to conclude who is the better player between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, considering Machado provides so much defensive value as a 3B, but he hurts his team as a SS; however, we can definitively say a few things about the two respective superstars:

Manny Machado 

• Hits for a higher AVG
• Hits more HRs
• Prevents more runs as a 3B
• Higher UZR/150 as a 3B
• More durable

Bryce Harper

• Gets on base more frequently
• More total bases/AB 
• Concedes fewer runs (if Machado plays SS)
• Higher UZR (if Machado plays SS)
• Steals slightly more bases
• Better baserunner (although Harper sort of has a problem with hustling as well)

Now I will reveal what contracts the numbers believe Harper and Machado should receive. Fangraphs’ Neil Weinberg estimated in 2016 that “teams are paying about $8 million per every WAR they add to their roster. For example, a 2 WAR player signed for three years would theoretically provide his team with 6 WAR, so a team might want to pay him anything up to $48 million. If the team pays less than $8 million for each expected WAR, we call this a ‘good deal’ and if they pay more, we say they ‘overpaid.'” For my contract predictions, I will base the annual salaries on $8 million/1 WAR. 

Another essential aspect that will be incorporated into my contract predictions is aging curves. 

 A basic rule of thumb is that once a player gets to 30, you sort of expect them to lose about 0.5 WAR per year of value due to aging. Some players will age better or worse, but that’s an average estimate

Neil Weinberg

In 2019, Steamer projects Bryce Harper (4.9 WAR) and Manny Machado (5.1 WAR) to contribute virtually the same value.

Here are WAR approximations (based on Neil Weinberg’s rule of thumb) for Harper and Machado over the next 13 years, along with their monetary value for each season (based on $8 million/ 1 WAR):

2019: (age 26 season): Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2020: Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2021: Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2022: Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2023: (age 30 season): Harper – 4.4 ($35.2 million); Machado – 4.6 ($36.8 million)

2024: Harper – 3.9 ($31.2 million); Machado – 4.1 ($32.8 million)

2025: Harper – 3.4 ($27.2 million); Machado – 3.6 ($28.8 million)

2026: Harper – 2.9 ($23.2 million); Machado – 3.1 ($24.8 million)

2027: (age 34 season): Harper – 2.4 ($19.2 million); Machado – 2.6 ($20.8 million)

2028: Harper – 1.9 ($15.2 million); Machado – 2.1 ($16.8 million)

2029: Harper – 1.4 ($11.2 million); Machado – 1.6 ($12.8 million)

2030: Harper – 0.9 ($7.2 million); Machado – 1.1 ($8.8 million)

2031: (age 38 season): Harper – 0.4 ($3.2 million); Machado – 0.6 ($4.8 million)

2032: Harper – -0.1 ($-1.2 million); Machado – 0.1 ($0.8 million)

2033: Harper – -0.6 ($-5.2 million); Machado – -0.4 ($-3.8 million)

Harper contract possibilities:

• 1 yr, $39.2 million total
• 2 yr, $78.4 million total
• 3 yr, $117.6 million total
• 4 yr, $156.8 million total
• 5 yr, $192 million total
• 6 yr, $223.2 million total
• 7 yr, $250.4 million total
• 8 yr, $273.6 million total
• 9 yr, $292.8 million total
• 10 yr, $308 million total
• 11 yr, $319.2 million total
• 12 yr, $326.4 million total
• 13 yr, $329.6 million total

Machado contract possibilities:

• 1 yr, $40.8 million total
• 2 yr, $81.6 million total
• 3 yr, $122.4 million total
• 4 yr, $163.2 million total
• 5 yr, $200 million total
• 6 yr, $232.8 million total
• 7 yr, $261.6 million total
• 8 yr, $286.4 million total
• 9 yr, $307.2 million total
• 10 yr, $324 million total
• 11 yr, $338.8 million total
• 12 yr, $349.6 million total
• 13 yr, $356.4 million total

In conclusion, I would prefer Machado over Harper because 3B/SS are more premium positions than RF (Harper’s home), and I would offer to pay Machado more money to play 3B.

I don't see either player getting a contract as expensive as the ones above. They are estimates which attempt to convey what Harper and Machado are really worth. The Yanks need to go after one of Harper or Machado; they'd be potentially getting a real bargain.

Now it’s your turn. If you were an MLB general manager…

• Would you sign Harper or Machado? 
• If so, how long would you sign him for?
• How much money would you pay for him?

Write your responses in the “comments” section below. 

Thanks for reading and if you're interested in reading the full article (includes what it could take for the Brewers and Mets to trade for Mad Bum), click here. Feel free to follow me on Twitter (to receives updates when I release new content) @MaxGold81356590 and make sure to check out my website (Max's Sporting Studio).

The Sights and Sounds of Steinbrenner Field...

Photo Credit: The New York Post (Charles Wenzelberg)

Pitchers and Catchers Report on Wednesday…

Here we are. The final weekend before pitchers and catchers report and Major League Baseball officially kicks off preparations for the 2019 season. Many players have already made their way to Tampa and have been seen in their informal workouts on the practice fields around Steinbrenner Field and signing autographs as they depart the hallowed grounds of 1 Steinbrenner Drive.

Photo Credit: Bryan Hoch via Instagram

I always enjoy the opening of Spring Training. So much excitement for the new season, everyone’s healthy (for the most part), and after no Major League baseball since last October, the gang’s back together again to make another run at the American League championship and the ultimate goal of winning the World Series. Of course, the feeling starts to fade in a couple of weeks when we are anxiously  and impatiently awaiting the start of the regular season but for now it’s a thrilling experience.  

The past week saw another round of rumors surrounding Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. While both young superstars remain unsigned, there is continued speculation the Yankees could make a play for one of the players if the price falls into their comfort zone. The words of Managing General Partner Hal Steinbrenner this week while attending the owner’s meeting in Orlando did not dispel the rumors. I know, he can’t say the Yankees are out because of the CBA, but he somewhat flamed the rumors by not counting the Yankees out on any moves they might make in the coming days.  

Steinbrenner made the comment, “If there’s a narrative that we’re not spending money and being cheap, that’s just false”. In my opinion, the Yankees have not been cheap. If anything, my frustration is simply the allocation of dollars that have been spent. I like DJ LeMahieu but with all honesty, the team would have been better with Manny Machado than LeMahieu. There’s been word (no official confirmation) the Yankees floated a concept of 7 or 8 years for around $220 million when they met with Machado in December. If true, Machado’s agent should have used it as a starting point for more serious negotiations. It didn’t happen, and the team quickly pivoted to LeMahieu. I don’t feel Steinbrenner is being cheap but conversely I don’t feel that he’s putting the best possible team on the field. Maybe signing Machado is not meant to be or if he really wanted to be a Yankee, he would be one by now. Regardless of events, I can’t help feel a little disappointment that neither Machado nor Harper are making flight plans for Tampa.   

At various points of the off-season, the Yankees have called Brett Gardner the starting leftfielder and Troy Tulowitzki the starting shortstop. I don’t buy either claim. At this point in his career, Gardy helps this team the best as its fourth outfielder. He is not the player he once was. Age happens to all of us, except for maybe Tom Brady or Mariano Rivera. Perhaps Clint “The Wildling” Frazier proves the injuries and concussions are behind him and he finally fulfills the promise he’s held for a few years now. I have no problem rolling out Frazier as the starter if he proves in Tampa over the next few weeks that he is ready. Personally, I’d prefer it if Frazier can take the job from Gardner because it means he has proven he can be better. 

As for Tulo, I just can’t shake the feeling he is done. Realistically, I am not expecting much from him. I think he’ll be very rusty in Spring Training, and I don’t see him as an every day starter once the team moves north to the Bronx. It feels too much like trying to “catch lightning in a bottle”. The infield is much stronger, in my opinion, with current two-year consecutive Wilson Defensive Player of the Year DJ LeMahieu at second and Gleyber Torres sliding to shortstop until the great Didi Gregorius is ready to return. 

Photo Credit: Didi Gregorius via Instagram

But despite Plan B’s that make sense with the current roster and invitees, the Yankees can be a better team with Harper or Machado. Of the two, Harper makes the most sense. Aside from the left-handed bat that he’d bring to the lineup, he represents a great option for left field, keeping Giancarlo Stanton in the healthier role as DH, and Harper could potentially develop as a first baseman. I know, you don’t pay a guy hundreds of millions of dollars to see if he can play a new position but Bryce would represent such a great resource for the Yankees in their drive to dethrone the Boston Red Sox. For Hal, Harper will increase tickets sales, both at home and on the road. If the Yankees are successful in reacquiring controlling interest in the YES Network, Harper would be a primary face and draw attraction for the team. He is a popular player, perhaps one of the most popular in the game outside of Mike Trout. This is not meant as a slam to Aaron Judge who I feel is one of the greatest players in the game, but Harper unquestionably has more fans outside of the Yankees Universe.

Photo Credit: USATSI

I am still a major fan of Manny Machado but I recognize that his presence would adversely impact Miguel Andujar. Nevertheless, the Yankees should not decide to pursue Machado because of Andujar because Machado is clearly the better overall player. But under that scenario, the Yankees would need to move Andujar to left field or first base or trade him for top starting pitching as we’ve talked about ad nauseam this off-season. Putting Harper in left keeps Andujar at third with the potential to see if he has improved his defensive game and allowing LeMahieu to slide over to the corner for support if necessary.  

My desire to add either Harper or Machado will not die until the players sign somewhere, anywhere.  Once that happens and if it is not in the Bronx, we’ll move on. The 2019 New York Yankees will be a very good team with or without Harp-Chado. If the Yankees do not sign either player, I’ll undoubtedly look at it as  missed opportunity (the “missed” chance to turn the team from very good to great) but I’ll support the current roster with full force and vigor as we all will.    

I am really enjoying Adam Ottavino as a Yankee. His ‘This or That’ videos on Instagram with his wife feeding him questions from off-screen have been stellar. Given he is a lifelong Yankee fan like us makes him so relatable, outside of the fact that he’s 6’5”, ruggedly handsome, throws a nasty slider, lives in a beautiful Manhattan apartment with an overview of the city, has an adorable wife and family, and makes millions of dollars per year.  

I like that Otto’s first pic upon arriving in Tampa this week was to take a picture of the famed George Steinbrenner statue outside of Steinbrenner Field. 

Photo Credit: Adam Ottavino via Instagram

Ottavino understands the history of the franchise better than most through his childhood fandom. He recently mentioned that his favorite Yankee hitter was Bernie Williams and fave pitcher was Jimmy Key. There’s probably guys on the team who don’t even know who Jimmy Key is. I respect both of those choices.   

After being known for years as Zach Britton, I was surprised the reliever formally announced that he’d be known by the proper “Zack” going forward. Not so much the correction of his name to match how he uses it and the name which appears on his birth certificate but rather why it took so many years for him to do it. I am sure that I’ll type Zach a time or two this season. Personally, with no offense to any Zack’s reading this, but I prefer the “ch” version of the name. It sounds more sophisticated, IMO. But hey, it’s not my name.  Britton has the right to call himself whatever he wants. If he wants to go by “Fluffy”, that’s fine by me. I guess I’ll get used to the new spelling in time. Speaking of Britton, I didn’t realize that his brother Buck was a manager in the Baltimore Orioles’ farm system. Buck Britton managed the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds to a 68-66 record in 2018. For this season, he’s been elevated to manager of the Double-A Bowie Baysox. Not that I expect Zack to ever get over his love for Birdland, but his brother’s presence in the Orioles organization continues to give him ties to his former roots.  

I mention it every year but I’ll continue to do it until there are changes. The Yankees need to revisit their facial hair policy. I don’t want to see the uncontrolled beards like Justin Turner of the Los Angeles Dodgers wears each season or Johnny Damon’s “Caveman” look during his days in Boston, but with controlled guidelines, there’s no reason guys like Luis Severino should not be allowed to wear beards like this:

Photo Credit: YES Network

I know the Yankees stick to the policy out of respect for the late George Steinbrenner but times have changed. I do not feel that short, trimmed facial hair detracts from the brand. It seems like all of the Yankee players are sporting some type of facial hair during the off-season. And very often when Yankee players are traded elsewhere, the first thing they do is grow a beard. I saw a pic of Ronald Torreyes, now playing for the Minnesota Twins, sporting a cool goatee this week. 

Photo Credit: Ronald Torreyes via Instagram

Players should be allowed a certain degree of self-expression. I get the history and tradition of Baseball’s most storied and prestigious franchise but wearing a groomed short beard is not exactly like slapping last names on the back of the famed Pinstriped jersey. Loosen up the facial policy rules, Hal. It’s your team, set your own standard.  

This has been a tough year watching Boston win championships in both MLB and NFL. I am tired of Boston fans celebrating and want to see the fans of New York rejoice. The Yankees have a huge opportunity to make plans for a parade in late October. Let’s not screw this up. The dawn of the 28th World Championship is upon us.

As always, Go Yankees!