My Response to Hal Steinbrenner and My Plan for the 2020 Offseason

Hello Yankees fans. It has been a while since we last spoke on blog form, although I have stayed active on Twitter @GreedyStripes, but my response to Hal Steinbrenner’s “State of the Yankees” type response this week just couldn’t be contained to 280-ish characters. Hal Steinbrenner discussed with Dan Martin of the New York Post where the New York Yankees go from here, and honestly… his plan and responses infuriated me.

“The failure in October, however, does not erase the accomplishments and successes of the season as a whole.” I agree with this statement, Hal. Carry on. “Winning the division for the first time since 2012, for one. I am proud of the team for many reasons, and we will most certainly be in the thick of things next year.” Okay, stop. First of all, I genuinely dislike the whole “World Series or bust” mantra that has been put on the team by the fans and the media. When George Steinbrenner ran the team, and when the entire thought process and attitude was created, the game and the atmosphere around Major League Baseball were entirely different. The Yankees could outspend the league with zero regard for the consequences. George could outspend his mistakes and gather up all the talent that the league, and the world for that matter, could muster. What a lot of fans aren’t remembering about that, though, is that it was the foolish spending and tactics that led to the environment that we are currently residing in today as baseball fans. Back then, it was pretty much George’s vision of the YES Network as a major television network and that was about it. Nowadays almost every team has a national television network, and the subsequent revenue that comes along with it. Back then, the talent level that existed in the game now just didn’t exist. Sure, there were great players spread across the league, but there weren’t players like Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, and Gleyber Torres tearing up the league before they could barely legally purchase a drink at a bar. It just didn’t happen, but now it is. No longer can the Yankees simply buy up all the international talent that is out there and trade away their prospects for proven veteran talent. The league’s spending caps on international free agents, the potential draft pick and monetary compensation that you lose for spending over your cap as well as the spending limitations that come along in future years, and the absolute influx of talent that leaves plenty to go around make it impossible for the old ways to be prevalent here in 2019. Period. So, while the “World Series or bust” mindset should die, it absolutely should not and cannot be replaced with the “Well, at least we won the division” mindset. That’s just lazy and irresponsible and it’s not going to cut it in the Bronx. Not now, not then, and not ever.

“If the 2020 season was to start tomorrow, I would feel considerably more confident than I did a year ago at this time. We will have both Severino and Montgomery back. We now know that Domingo German can pitch effectively at this level. And we know James Paxton can be the guy that we were hoping for when we made that trade. We have Masahiro Tanaka, JA Happ, Jonathan Loaisiga, and perhaps Deivi Garcia at some point. A very good rotation.” Let me stop you again. While I am teetering on the desire to agree with you, I think we ultimately see things a little differently. While Hal Steinbrenner see’s this as a very good rotation, I ultimately think this will be his cop out for not wanting to get seriously involved in the bidding for Gerrit Cole, potentially Stephen Strasburg, etc. I don’t know why, whether it’s intuition or a bit of pessimism, but I feel like that said all we needed to know as fans about what to expect this winter. First and foremost, we won’t see Deivi before the end of July. That’s fine, the Yankees did something similar with Luis Severino back in 2015 when the 21-year old made his debut on August 5^th of that season, but I truly don’t think that the Yankees can simply lean on that and depend on that kind of production out of Deivi. Furthermore, divisions and trips to the postseason cannot be won or achieved between the months of March and July or August, but they can damn sure be lost along the way. You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn, and if the 2019 Yankees showed us anything, you can’t predict injuries either. Relying on this rotation as it is currently constituted and assembled is risky, and using this current rotation as an excuse to not do everything in your power to sign a guy like Cole, Strasburg, etc., then in my opinion that is a complete slap in the face to the fans, the fan base, and all 25 (26 next season) players in that dugout. Steinbrenner can spout quotes like “Our payroll the last 10-plus years are a testament to that,” when discussing the possibility of signing off on any potential free agent signing that Brian Cashman and his crew puts on Hal’s desk, but we have all seen and ranted about the revenue to payroll reports that are public record by now. The Yankees spend the lowest percentage of payroll to revenue in all of Major League Baseball. I couldn’t care less about how many other expenditures you have that aren’t reported in these graphs and percentages. What I do care about is spending an exorbitant amount of money on tickets, merchandise, YES Network subscriptions, parking, food, etc. in 2020 only to watch Tyler Wade (no disrespect intended to Mr. Wade) man left field while an aging Brett Gardner tries to hold down center field until Aaron Hicks returns from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees make the most money, and the Yankees fans pay the most money (or damn near close to it), so it only makes sense for the ends to justify the means. The fans were not only loyal, but patient, while Hal and company got under and stayed under the luxury tax. The fans were also patient, for the most part anyway, while New York passed on the likes of Patrick Corbin, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper last offseason, deciding to trust the process while DJ LeMahieu grew on us all. The Yankees fan base has put in their time, and in my very bias yet humble opinion it’s time for Hal to throw them a bone.

I, unlike most, won’t just sit here and gripe about things that haven’t been done. Instead, I’d rather throw out my own plan and build upon it as the winter drags on. While we stand here on November 1^st, my plan is not complete (please remember this before ripping it, and me, to shreds in the comments section and on Twitter), but here it is in all its glory. I haven’t fully made up my mind on what New York should do with Didi Gregorius and his impending free agency, but for whatever reason every ounce of me is leaning towards letting him hit free agency. In all honesty, I see the Yankees bringing him back on a three-or-four-year deal at a reasonable price (I am thinking $12 - $15 million AAV), but I think that money could be better spent elsewhere. Having LeMahieu play every day at second base, his best and natural position, while sliding Gleyber Torres over to shortstop just makes sense to me. This gives the Yankees their best infield defense while it also opens the door for New York to sign Yoshitomo Tsutsugo out of Japan. While we don’t know a lot about Tsutsugo, but when do we ever with these Japanese imports, I think we know enough to make an intelligent decision to sign him. First and foremost, Tsutsugo is only 27-years old, he will be 28-years old when the 2020 season begins and would add a lot to the 2020 Yankees that I think they may have missed in 2019. Tsutsugo can play left field, third base, and first base while batting from the left side and throwing from the right side. Gio Urshela needs a day off? Easy, let Tsutsugo play third. Voit and his reverse splits need to sit in a day game after a night game? No problem, Yoshitomo can easily man and platoon at first. Giancarlo Stanton cannot play left field every day, but Tsutsugo could if he had to as he has been extremely durable throughout his career in the Japanese Central League. Tsutsugo is a power hitting bat that would salivate while looking down at the short porch inside Yankee Stadium, and even if his power didn’t exactly translate from Japan to the states, those home runs would at least be doubles here in the Bronx… and that works too. In 10 seasons in Japan, Tsutsugo has hovered around a .300 batting average with an extra .100 points consistently added on top of that with his on-base percentage. Tsutsugo could add a lot of versatility to the team while presumably not breaking the bank either. A bench of Tsutsugo, Tyler Wade, and Austin Romine (I am assuming he comes back) allows the Yankees to carry both 13 pitchers and potentially Miguel Andujar on the bench.

Now that last line probably infuriated a ton but let me explain. Remember, the offseason plan is not complete. If the Yankees decide to trade Andujar in a deal that makes sense, a deal like a potential (albeit unlikely) deal for Lucas Giolito of the Chicago White Sox for instance, then you absolutely do that. At the same time, though, I am not exactly giving away Andujar either. Gio Urshela was great in 2019, and I honestly think he could be again in 2020, but this is most definitely not a Wally Pipp situation in my eyes. The extra roster space and the expansion of the 25-man roster to a 26-man roster allows the Yankees to do that, even if they also carry Giancarlo Stanton on the roster as well. There will be plenty of at-bats, injuries, and situations to go around that everyone will get their fair share, trust me.

The pitching is where the Yankees can get super creative. Having a healthy Jordan Mongtomery is great, but that should absolutely not keep you from going after a generational talent like Cole or Strasburg. Montgomery got a whopping 4.0 IP in 2019 and 27.1 IP in 2018, so despite his 155.1 IP in 2017 and his arm strength that was built up in the Minor League’s prior to his callup in 2017, the arm strength will just not be there for the 162-game grind that will be the 2020 season. Sending Montgomery down to AAA to start the 2020 campaign, or even the bullpen, would not be the worst thing in the world for Gumby, nor the Yankees. He is just a phone call away if and when he is needed. The same can be said for Jonathan Loaisiga and others, neither should keep the Yankees from making a run at a top starter. The one man that could, though, is JA Happ. Happ is not likely going to the bullpen and he cannot be stashed down at AAA like the aforementioned Loaisiga and Montgomery. The Yankees are going to have either ride it out with him or move him. Before anyone jumps up and down about the money he is owed and the crap show that he portrayed on the mound in 2019, let me remind you of a few things. Down the stretch, Happ was great. Also, the Yankees did the same thing with AJ Burnett not all that long ago when they sent him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a pair of prospects and salary relief. At the time the deal was described as AJ Burnett for salary relief and a pair of lottery tickets, and a similar deal could be worked out for Happ if New York makes the money look right. Happ is due to make $17 million in 2020 and has a vesting option for another $17 million in 2021 if he pitches at least 165 innings or makes 27 starts in 2020. I don’t know who would be willing to take on Happ and around $12 million, the Yankees of course eating the $5 million or more, but with the market ever evolving it wouldn’t surprise me to see someone bite on Happ for a couple prospects no one has ever heard of down in A-Ball.

Adding another bullpen piece could be another discussion to have for another day, but I will wait until the Yankees do whatever they are going to do with Aroldis Chapman, his request for an extension, and his potential opt-out of the Bronx. Right now, this is my focus for the Yankees this offseason, and I think this is a plan that Hal can get behind. I haven’t crunched the numbers, but the subtraction of Happ ($12-ish million), CC Sabathia ($8 million), Gardner as of today ($7.5 million plus $2 million buyout), Didi ($11.75 million), Dellin Betances as of today ($7.25 million)etc. that would more than clear enough capital to sign Cole at or around $35 million AAV and still have the Yankees under what they spent in 2019, pre-arbitration, and BETTER than they were in 2019.

Will Hal listen? I guess we will just have to stay tuned and find out.

ICYMI: 2019 Opening Day Roster

CATCHERS (2)

Austin Romine

Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)

3B Miguel Andujar

1B Greg Bird

IF DJ LeMahieu

2B/SS Gleyber Torres

SS Troy Tulowitzki

1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)

CF Brett Gardner

RF Aaron Judge

LF Giancarlo Stanton

OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)

RHP Domingo German

LHP J.A. Happ

LHP James Paxton

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

LHP CC Sabathia 

RELIEVERS (8)

LHP Zack Britton

LHP Aroldis Chapman

RHP Luis Cessa

RHP Chad Green

RHP Jonathan Holder

RHP Tommy Kahnle

RHP Adam Ottavino

LHP Stephen Tarpley

Comparing the 2018 & 2019 Yankees

Comparing the 2018 & 2019 Yankees

The 2017 New York Yankees team was a fun group of overachievers.  Led by Rookie Of The Year winner, Aaron Judge, this squad was fun and energetic. Made up of mostly home grown stars, like Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino, they’d fought their way to within one game of going to the World Series before being eliminated by eventual champion Houston Astros in game 7 of the American League Championship Series.

With the addition of reigning National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton, the 2018 Yankees started of the year as one of the early World Series favorites. Throughout the season, the team struggled with injuries and slumps, yet remained one of the league’s best teams. Judge was hit on the hand with a pitch on July 26th by Jakob Junis, of the Kansas City Royals. Causing a chip fracture of the wrist. The Boston Red Sox went on to run away with the division and eventually eliminate the Yankees in the Divisional Series on their way to winning their third World Series since 2004.

For whatever reason, a common perception amongst fans changed from that of a fun team in 2017 to that of a pessimist, glass half empty, everything is wrong team at the end of the year.  Even as the team eclipsed the 1997 Seattle Mariners record for most home runs, 100 regular season wins was not enough.  All throughout the offseason as the Yankees improved the team, it was never enough. They traded for James Paxton. They signed Brett Gardner, CC Sabathia, J.A. Happ, DJ LeMahieu, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino, but the constant clamoring was for Patrick Corbin, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper. With all the negativity, you would think that the Yankees don’t stand a chance , even though they currently are the Las Vegas favorites at 6:1.

So I wanted to compare the team on a whole from this time last year to the team that’s about to embark on a 6-month regular season journey with hopes of winning an unprecedented 28th World Series championship.  I will leave out the emotion and see what we should expect from the 2019 New York Yankees.  I’m using Baseball Reference WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to show value of players.  8+ MVP, 5+ All-Star, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, <0 Replace

Starting at the top, Hal Steinbrenner is the owner, having taken over after his father, George, past away. Their family has owned the team since 1973 and is the longest tenured owner, 8 years longer than Jerry Reinsdorf has owned the Chicago White Sox.

General Manager Brian Cashman , also the longest tenured in Major League Baseball, having been in his position since 1998, 7 ½ years longer than Jon Daniels has been the GM of the Texas Rangers.  There is stability and clear cut power structure running the organization.

Manager Aaron Boone is a third generational Major League player and the hero of the 2003 Yankees team. Baseball runs in his veins.  He left his job as a baseball analysts for a national broadcast to succeed Joe Girardi in 2018.  The rookie manager had his share of stumbles, but led the team to 100 victories.  He was hired for his understanding and acceptance of the use of analytics and for his ability to communicate and relate to today’s players.  With a year of experience under his belt, he is likely to be more of an asset this year.

Luis Severino was the ace in 2017 and repeated the same in 2018, going a combined 33-14 with a WAR of 10.  Although fatigue and rumors of tipping pitches made him more hittable during the second half of last season, he still turned in his second straight season with a top-10 finish in the Cy Young award voting.  That earned him a contract extension for 4 years and $40M.  He experienced shoulder soreness during spring training and isn’t expected back before May.  Shoulders are scary.  If it lingers, we may never see him dominate again.  Hopefully it was just a minor setback and he returns in May to once again lead the staff.  Regardless, it’s unlikely he will provide the value he did last year due to the missed action.

Masahiro Tanaka found more consistency in 2018, improving his WAR from 1.1 to 2.9 while pitching 20 innings less.  The former Japanese League star benefits from more rest.  He is a proven commodity that excels in the postseason. He will take over the Opening day assignment and will lead the staff forward. Expect him to match or exceed last year.

The 2018 team had Sonny Gray penciled in as the number three starter.  However, after posting an ERA approaching 5, he was relegated to the bullpen and was traded away during the offseason.  He is being replaced in 2019 by James Paxton who was acquired from the Seattle Mariners for top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield.  Paxton, aka Big Maple, posted a 2.9 WAR over 160 inning in his breakout season.  The Yankees are hoping that they get with him what they expected to get from Gray, a solid starter with team control.  He will definitely provide an upgrade over what they got from Gray.

CC Sabathia returned as a free agent for one last season.  Off season heart surgery and an early season suspension will push back the start of his season.  He posted a 2.8 and 2.3 WAR in 2017 and 2018, respectively.  He provides leadership and is looking to enjoy his last lap around the league.  He may experience a slight dip in production but will lay it all on the line if needed.  Expect about the same as previous years.

The 2018 number 5 starter, Jordan Montgomery blew out his arm after just six starts.  He required Tommy John surgery a year after finishing 6th in the Rookie Of The Year voting.  He is not expected to rejoin the team until after the all-star break, when the team will definitely welcome the reinforcements.  Montgomery is being replaced to start the season by J.A. Happ, who resigned with the Yankees after posting a 3.3 WAR combined with the Toronto Blue Jays and the Yankees. Happ is a proven veteran with a track record of success.  A full year on the team will provide an upgrade in value from just a half season.

Almost all Major League teams limit their pitchers.  160-180 innings is about all they get. Most teams now use at least 8 starters throughout a season.  The Yankees are no different. With Severino and Sabathia beginning the season on the injured list, they signed Gio Gonzalez to a minor league contract.  He will need some time to stretch out, but over the past 9 years, he has averaged 31 starts and 187 innings.  He will become an asset.  In the meantime, the Yankees have three young starters that will fill in the gap: Domingo German, Jonathon Loaisiga , and Luis Cessa.  They will all get significant opportunities to help the club.

Last year’s bullpen was one of the best ever assembled.  They entered with Aroldis Chapman as the dominant closer. Dellin Betances and his 15.1 k/9 rate, Chad Green, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle as the expected leaders.  Chapman dealt with knee issues and Kahnle had velocity issues but the bullpen was still a strength.  Robertson, Adam Warren, and Chasen Shreve are gone from last year.  Johnathon Holder and Zack Britton will be significant contributors.  Kahnle has regained his lost velocity.  Chapman and Betances each had 1.7 WAR and Green has compiled 5.0 WAR over the last two seasons.  This year’s bullpen will likely be the greatest one ever assembled.

Behind the plate, Gary Sanchez missed an entire month in 2017, but still managed a 4.1 WAR with 33 HRs and 90 RBI to go with his .876 OPS.  Injuries destroyed his 2018 as he only played in 89 games and posted a slash line of .186/.291/.406    It is impossible for a player with the skill level of Sanchez to repeat such awful numbers.  He came into spring training fresh and healthy. I expect to see him dwarf his 2017 season en route to staking his claim as the best catcher in the game today.

Over at first, Greg Bird was coming off a .190/.288/.422 season in which he only played 48 games and produced a WAR of 0.  Believe it or not that was better than the .199/.286/.386 and -.6 he contributed in 2018.  At the end of last season, Luke Voit powered his way to a 1.095 OPS during his 39 games in pinstripes.  Both Bird and Voit have had excellent spring trainings.  There will be significant improvements from last year’s production.

Neil Walker signed on as a free agent last year to play second base.  He was soon replaced by Gleyber Torres. Although Torres was kept in the minors long enough to manipulate his service time, he still produced a WAR of 2.9 in only 123 games.  His third place ROY finish is just the beginning of his accolades as he will develop into a perennial all star.  He will definitely improve upon last year.

Didi Gregorius has developed into a true star, earning 7.9 WAR the last two years, despite only playing 270 games.  However, he injured his arm last year in the playoffs and required Tommy John Surgery.  For the interim, Troy Tulowitzki will get the first crack at short, where he was a 2- time Gold Glove winner.  However, that was long before Achilles surgery that required him to miss all of 2018 and most of 2017.  For some reason, the Toronto Blue Jays released Tulowitzki and his guaranteed $38M contract before spring training even started.  The Yankees have been impressed with what they have seen from him and invested only a minimum contract. Tulowitzki will require some rest. Torres will slide across the diamond on those occasions and free agent signee DJ LeMathieu will play second, where he has earned three Gold Gloves.  Production will likely be lower, unless Tulowitzki is capable of returning to the player that produced WAR of 5+ six times earlier in his career.
Miguel Andujar is a career .300 hitter that burst onto the scene last year after Brandon Drury was sidelined with migraines.  Andujar placed second in the ROY voting.  His 2.2 WAR is deceiving as his offensive WAR was 4.6, but his -25 DRS (defensive runs saved) made his defense a liability.  He was not even in the lineup the game the Yankees were eliminated last year.  Andujar committed his offseason to working on his defense.  Scouts are raving at the progress he has made at the hot corner.  His bat will carry him, but if he can become even league average on defense, he will become a huge upgrade over himself.

Brett Gardner is the longest tenured Yankee and the only player that called old Yankees Stadium home.  The former all star and Gold Glove winner is clearly on the downward trend posting a 2.8 WAR in 2018 after a 4.9 in 2017.  However his leadership and solid defense was enough for the team to bring him back as a free agent. If he can rest more early in the season, his production may not drop as much later on.

Aaron Hicks has been a great player, proving to be a true 5-tool player when on the field.  However, staying on the field is what he has struggled to do.  He posted a 3.9 WAR in 2017 despite playing in only 88 games, and followed that up with a 4.7 in 2018.  The team rewarded him with a seven-year contract extension.  Shortly after signing the contract, he developed back issues which have sidelined him for several weeks.  He will begin the season on the injured list.  Hopefully he will return healthy and establish himself as the best center fielder not named Trout.

Over in right field,  Aaron Judge has become a super star and face of the Yankees.  In 2017, he had 79 extra base hits, OPS of 1.049, and 8.1 WAR on his way to win you ROY and runner up MVP.  He was well on his way to duplicating those numbers when the 93 mph fastball by Junis came inside and essentially ended his season in July, save for a late September cameo.  Fully healthy once again, he will be this year’s MVP and produce monster numbers, Ruthian like.

Giancarlo Stanton was the 2017 NL MVP in a season which he slugged 59 homers and posted a WAR of 7.6. So in 2018, even though he connected on 38 round trippers and a 4.0, the fan base was not impressed. Expect him to be more settled in and comfortable this year and production to be somewhere in between the previous two, which will be an upgrade.

Jacoby Ellsbury played in 112 games in 2017, but in 2018 he failed to make it onto the field, due to several various, lingering injuries.  Because of that, the Yankees were able to collect on his insurance policy.  He still has two lucrative years left on his contract and a no-trade clause.  It remains to be seen if he will be able to return to a Major League field if and when he is healthy enough to return. He has missed a lot of time and the game moves fast. Until that time, he will remain on he injured list and the team will collect on the insurance.

Clint Frazier would have played a lot last year had it not been for a concussion suffered in spring training and lingered most of the year.  Andrew McCutchen, Shane Robinson, and others combined to play over 1/3 of the season.  Frazier will have a lot to contribute this year.

The 40-man roster has several players that are potentially capable of being placed on the 60-day IL as they wont be returning before June.  Montgomery, Gregorius, Ben Heller.  Maybe Ellsbury. Possibly Severino.  This is how players such as Gonzalez will be added to the 40- man roster.

The 2018 Yankees set a Major League record with 267 HRs. Their 2-year total from 2017&2018 is 508, second all time to the 1996&1997 Mariners’ 509.  I believe they will shatter that record this year.  In 2018, 10 different players combined to hit multiple home runs in a game 24 times. Surprisingly, none were done by Judge. Bold prediction: Judge hits multiple homers multiple times.

The 2018 Yankees averaged 10.05 k/9, becoming only the third team in MLB history to surpass 10, joining the 2017 Cleveland Indians and the 2018 Houston Astros.  The team total was 1634, which I foresee being eclipsed this year.

In 2017, Yankees farmhands Cale Coshow, Albert Abreu, Jorge Guzman (traded for Stanton) & Luis Medina all topped 100 mph in games.  In 2018, Abreu and Medina did it again and were joined by Luis Gil.  A trio of Yankees routinely top triple digits: Chapman, Severino, and Betances.  According to Statcast, Chapman threw four pitches over 104.  Speaking of Statcast, including the playoffs, 33 balls had exit velocities of 117 or higher in 2018.  23 of those were produced by Yankees.  Several Yankees farmhands have already been lighting up the radar gun to the tune of over 100 this spring. Exit velocities are going to be fun to track.

The 2018 Yankees had several injuries, yet somehow still managed to win 100 games.   Throughout MLB history, there have been 105 teams that have won 100 or more games.  95 of those have won their division.  The 2018 Yankees are one of the ten that did not.  This is, in part because the Red Sox were historically good against bad teams.  Of the teams with the ten worst records, the Yankees played seven of them and went a combined 44-25 for a .638 winning percentage.  The Red Sox played the same seven teams at a .779 clip. 53-15 is 9.5 games better than the Yankees, who lost the division by 8 games.

Over the last several years, the Yankees have graduated several elite players out of their farm system.  Gary Sanchez was second in ROY in 2016.  Judge won in 2017 along with Montgomery, who was sixth.  That doesn’t even include Severino, who’s actually even younger.  So, entering 2018, the pie farm system was ranked in the top three, with Gleyber  Torres a consensus top five prospect, and as many as six others making top 100 lists.  Miguel Andujar placed second in ROY voting, followed by a third for Torres.

Along with those graduates, several top prospects like Chance Adams, Thairo Estrada, Freicer Perez, Albert Abreu, and Domingo Acevedo had down years along with the broken hamate bone Estevan Florial suffered and subsequently reinsured this spring.  The Yankees also traded several players.  The results is a system currently ranking in the bottom third of professional systems.

In the past two plus years, the system has traded away:
Austin, Avelino, Blash, Carroll, Cave, DePaula, Diehl, Drury, Enns, Finley, Fowler, Frare, Gallegos, Gamel, Guzman, Herrera, Kaprielian, Littell, Long, Mateo, McKinney, Pazos, Polo, Ramirez, Rijo, Rutherford, Rumbelow, Sheffield, Smith, Solak, Swanson, Tate, Thompson-Williams, and Widener.

Yet as we enter 2019, the team has several young players in the system that have the potential to be elite players and on top 100 lists.  Luis Medina has three 70 grade pitches that he is beginning to throw for strikes.  Roansy Contreras, Deivi Garcia, Florial, Antonio Cabello, Everson Pereria, Loaisiga, Clarke Sschmidt, Anthony Seigler, and Kevin Alcantara are amongst those.  The team is also linked to top international free agent Jasson Dominguez.  Very astute trades for pool money to sign IFA and draft players and trading for players like Stowers and Roman they tried to get earlier is how the team’s player development is quickly becoming the best in the league.  The farm system will once again be top five by the end of the season.

Synopsis:
The 2018 Yankees were very good.  They won 100 regular season games, but because of injuries were relegated to a wild card team, playing the eventual World Series champs in the divisional round.
The 2019 team is better.  The rotation is deeper and stronger.  The bullpen is perhaps the best ever.  The defense can’t be any worse tan last year.  The offense could be historic.  Setting records. Runs, home runs.  They are going to be a force.
As the season is about to start, I have them as the favorites.  Not only because they are better, but because Boston is weaker.  A lot can happen, especially in the playoffs and short series.  I just hope that the fans can just sit back and enjoy it this year as opposed to all the negativity from last year.
The team’s minor league affiliates are going to be a lot of fun.  Especially Charleston early on.  They’re going to be stacked with 18- year olds ready for full season ball.



MLB is flush with money.  Revenue in 2018 exceeded $10.3 Billion.  That is why we are seeing all of these contract extensions recently. Arenado, Trout, Harper, Machado, Jiminez, Sale, Verlander have all recently signed huge deals.  Teams no longer rely on traditional streams of revenue like gate attendance and concessions and merchandise.  The main sources of revenue are now streaming services, Internet , and television.

If the Yankees were to offer Judge an extension, what might it look like? Well he is playing this year at basically league minimum. Then he will have three years of arbitration. Even if those years are $10,$20,$30 he is entering free agency about to turn 31. The reason for a team to offer the security up front is to get cost certainty down the road.  If he got the extension now, while he’s making $600,000 a year, he’d probably sign for 9/$170M.  After this year it’d jump to 8/$220M. Same amount of years, $50M more.  If they go year by year and he signs a five year deal for $230 after getting $60M in arbitration they will pay $120M more over the same 9 years.  Assuming he would sign only for 5 years. Cashman should make the offer sooner than later.

Here are a few ideas for how MLB should evolve with the times. Teams are tanking to get better draft positions. They aren’t losing revenue as a large chunk of the $10.3 is shared.  There’s no deterrent. Start rewarding teams that try with higher draft spots. Best team to not make the playoffs get the top pick.  Allow teams to trade picks.  It would increase interest and intrigue.  Institute a salary floor so all teams have to spend at least $100 M a year.  The universal DH and 26th man will cause teams to marginally spend more.

Pay minor leaguers a more fair wage.  The Blue Jays are at least working towards this becoming an industry wide standard.
However, what the same Blue Jays are doing to Vladimir Guerrero Jr is a travesty.  Manipulating his service time.  Smart business in a flawed system.  Teams don’t have to add a player to the 40-man roster for 5 years, then they have three option years, and then six years before they are eligible for free agency.  That’s as much as 14 years.  How about from the point in which a player signs, they are under team control for 8 ½ years. Years 7,8,&9 are arbitration years.  So if a player is major league ready at 19, you bring him up and get as much use out of him before he becomes a free agent.  IFA that are signed at 16 will be on the market by 25.


Cito Culver was recently in Tampa, pitching in the minor league camp.  He joins other former first rounders:
Sabathia, Tulowitzki, Ellsbury, Ottavino, Hicks, Gonzalez, Brothers, Lipka, Frazier, Judge, Holder, Schmidt, and Seigler.

The Yankees have 10 living World Series MVPs:
56 Larsen
60 Richardson
61 Ford
62 Terry
77 Jackson
78 Dent
96 Wetteland
98 Brosius
99 Rivera
00 Jeter
09 Matsui

Former Yankees 90+ years old:
Eddie Robinson
Art Schallock
Charlie Silvera
Dr. Bobby Brown
Irv Noren
Bobby Shantz
Hank Workman
Billy Gardner
Bill Hunter
Whitey Ford

Old Timers Day 2018 only featured two Hall Of Famers:
Mr. October
Chairman of the Board
Expect more in 2019

Most World Series rings, not in Monument Park:
7-Bauer
6-Raschi, Murphy, Crosetti
5-Lopat, Woodling, Mize, Lazzeri, Rolfe, Selkirk, Collins, McDougald
4-Henrich, Gordon, Coleman, Skowron

Former players not yet in Monument Park:
Nettles
White
Kubek
Richardson
Boyer
Michaels
Hour
MacPhail
Thresh
Downing
Gordon
Lazzeri
Crosetti

Offseason Wrap-Up

I won't get into all the reasons why I haven't written much during the offseason. It's not that I don't want to share those reasons, but I have a feeling you really don't care a whole lot. So let's just say I'm happy to be writing something again, and hopefully you all get something out of it.... positive or negative. After all, any reaction is better than none.

I didn't say much about all the moves the Yankees made this offseason while they happened, other than sharing some thoughts on Twitter. So I thought I'd just lump them all together in this offseason wrap-up.

Since I find myself skipping a lot of these article openers I'm not going to play the hypocrite and go on any longer with this one. So I'll just dive right into it.

Re-signed Brett Gardner
I called for the Yankees to bring back Gardner before the offseason even started. However, I had Gardner there as the team's 4th outfielder. His ability to play a strong left or center field, and his familiarity with New York, make him the best person for the job.

However, I don't like that he could get quite a few starts this season. Mind you, the Yankees' offense could get by just fine with his sub-par bat, but they could have certainly done better.

I'm rooting hard for Clint Frazier because he could be the next big/young thing for the Yankees. They already have youngsters like Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, and Gary Sanchez. And don't forget that Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Hicks are still under 30 years old. Luke Voit nor Greg Bird have proven that they have a bright future yet, but those two turn just 26 and 28, respectively, this year.

So while bringing back Gardner is no reason to celebrate, it's not a horrible way to kick off the offseason, either.

Re-signed CC Sabathia
This is another move I wanted to see happen and, unlike with Gardner, CC will fit into the rotation spot that I wanted as well. Sabathia is not a Cy Young contender like his younger self, but I think a sub-5.00 ERA is a certainty while a sub-4.00 ERA is a possibility. And getting that from your team's #5 starter is pretty darn good.

Traded for James Paxton
I was ready to say that while I preferred the Yankees just sign Patrick Corbin, that Paxton makes a fine alternative. Then I looked at the numbers and realized that the Yankees may have gotten the better pitcher.

Paxton is only 255 days older than Corbin, although Patrick has thrown about 360 more innings in Major League Baseball. So you could say Corbin has a longer track record, but it's not like Paxton is in his sophomore season. The fact is James' career ERA (3.42 vs. 3.91), ERA+ (117 vs. 109), FIP (3.13 vs. 3.65), and K/9 (9.5 vs. 8.5) are all higher than Corbin's. Even when it comes to walks per 9 innings their rates are the same (2.6).

And seeing that James will make less than half what Patrick will, and without the Yankees having committed five years to the guy, I think they did very well with this move.

Now, the loss of Justus Sheffield stinks. I don't think he was going to be the next Luis Severino, but I believe he could have been a good starter for the Yanks possibly this season. But we have to face the fact that he was still an unproven commodity whereas Paxton has already got the job done in the Show. If we were talking about a team that was looking to contend in a year or two that would be one thing, but the Yankees want to and can win now, therefore having Paxton over Sheffield was the right move.

Signed J.A. Happ
The Yankees rounded out their starting rotation by bringing back Happ. I'm not the biggest Happ fan in the World, but that doesn't mean I think he's junk either. He has done well in his career, and he did that in the American League East... which is no small thing.

I don't expect Happ to repeat that sub-3.00 ERA he had for the Yankees after they acquired him last season, but an ERA around 4.00 is absolutely in the cards (his career ERA is 3.90).

Happ's not a young buck at 36, but thankfully he's only signed for two seasons with a vesting option for a third (he has to throw 165 innings or make 27 starts in 2020 for that to vest). His salary of $17 million a season is no drop in the bucket, but I don't think that would stop the Yankees from making a move if it were necessary.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki 
Normally I'd be perfectly fine with a signing such as this. The guy is only going to cost the Yankees the league minimum, so it's not like his salary would block the team from making other moves... unlike a certain former Red Sox outfielder that is currently being paid more than $21 million by the Yankees over each of the next two years.

But my issue with this signing is that the club seems determined to make Troy the regular shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns from his injury. For starters, Tulo is not the type of player a contending team should bring into the fold. If a team is looking for veteran leadership to help bring along a young team to be a contender in 2-3 years... okay. But that's not the case. And secondly, the Yankees have Gleyber Torres who can play a very capable shortstop.

Mind you, perhaps they didn't feel that Tyler Wade or anyone else in the organization could handle regular duty at second base instead of having Torres there (or to play shortstop in the first place), but this signing should have only been a lottery ticket instead of somebody the team would depend on at all.

Signed Zack Britton
Zack had a couple of great years with the Orioles in 2015 and 2016, but injuries held him back and likely negatively affected his 2017 and possibly his 2018 seasons. And that sucks, but a player or team falling on hard times does not mean anything in the standings. So I was not at all enamored when the Yankees traded for Zack last season.

Sure, he could find what used to make him awesome, but I was not comfortable leaning on the guy when the game was tight. And I believe those feelings were justified as I watched him pitch. To be frank he was like David Robertson in that he always seemed to get in trouble. But unlike D-Rob, Britton doesn't have the strikeout ability to get out of those jams quite as often.

Thankfully the Yankees have Aroldis Chapman as their closer, and along with Dellin Betances and Chad Green there's a good chance that Zack wouldn't be leaned on that hard. As long as that thought holds up then we're cool here.

Oh, yeah... the Yankees ended up doing something else with the bullpen. More on that later.

Signed D.J. LeMahieu 
When I first saw the news that the Yankees signed LeMahieu it barely registered. This seemed like nothing more than a depth signing. However, after reading more about the guy I got excited. A multi-time Gold Glove winner on a team that needs help defensively? Very nice. And while he's unlikely to do a ton of damage with the bat, he's not a zero there, either.

In fact, initially I thought this meant that Torres would indeed take over shortstop while LeMahieu would play his strongest position... second base. I still think that is easily the best way to go, but the Yankees have said they still plan on having Tulowitzki get the most time at shortstop.

I have a feeling the Tulo experiment isn't going to last long (don't bother talking to me about how he's hitting in Spring Training, as the guy might as well be swinging only in a batting cage for how much I care about Spring Training results), and therefore we'll see a lineup with Torres and D.J. up the middle more often than not.

Signed Adam Ottavino
I got the news of this signing while I was at work, and a co-worker looked at me funny after I pumped my first and exclaimed "yes" after reading the alert.

As evidenced by his strikeout rates over the past six years, Adam is a K-machine. We've all seen that nasty slider of his and I can't wait to see him make batter's knees buckle all season long.

I wouldn't feel comfortable if he were brought in to be the team's closer, but he's going to be a force in what is the game's best bullpen. I mean, who cares if CC Sabathia only goes five innings in a start? Boone can call on Green, Betances, Ottavino, Britton, and Chapman at that point. Five great to really great relievers to handle four innings? I think we're good.

I wanted to point out that the Yankees' starting rotation could be better. But I think it is underrated by so many. Severino (yes, he's hurt, but I believe he'll return as strong as before), Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, and Sabathia make a very formidable rotation. And if they deem it necessary I think the Yankees have the ability to get another good to great starter by the trade deadline. So putting a killer bullpen on top of that rotation should result in many wins.

I understand that not signing either of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado is disappointing. Regardless of how a team looks it's silly not to at least try and sign a generational talent who is just 26 years old. Up until it was announced Harper had officially signed with the Phillies I still held out hope that Harper would be in pinstripes. Not to say I was crushed when it didn't happen, but I did sigh a bit.

But if everyone took a moment to breath and think they'd realize that the 2019 New York Yankees look fantastic. Many places predict that they will win the American League East, which is hardly a small thing when they have to deal with a (and it hurts to say this) very good Boston Red Sox team that just won the World Series.

And don't give me crap about "what if an injury happens". Look, no team is going to pay a guy big money to possibly be their sixth starter (no, Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez should be left alone... and I bet they want to go where they are guaranteed 30 or so starts instead of being part of a six man rotation). And injury can cripple any team, including that Red Sox team I just mentioned.

So let's sit back and enjoy what should be a very good season, one which could end with yet another Yankees' World Series parade.

Predicting the 2019 Season: The World Series

The field is set and it’s the New York Yankees with the home field advantage over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers already slayed one goliath when they took down the team with the best record in all of Major League Baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in the NLCS, and the team will look to do so again against the New York Yankees in the World Series. Will Milwaukee win its first World Series in their franchise’s history? Or will the Yankees win their 28^th world championship overall and their first since the 2009 season?

Game One – Yankee Stadium – Tuesday, October 22th

Luis Severino vs. Jhoulys Chacin

The Milwaukee Brewers have made just one appearance in the World Series and that was back in 1982 as a member of the American League. The Brewers would ultimately fall to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games marking their only trip to the Fall Classic. The nerves of their first World Series trip in over 30 years, mixed in with a great pitching performance by Luis Severino, and the Yankees take a quick 1-0 series lead with a commanding victory.

Yankees lead the series 1-0

Game Two – Yankee Stadium – Wednesday, October 25th

James Paxton vs. Chase Anderson

James Paxton will make his first World Series start of his career for the Yankees while Chase Anderson will make his first World Series start for the Brewers. Neither pitcher will be incredibly effective, but the Yankees bullpen will lock down the game and give the Yankees a commanding 2-0 lead behind a big game from Didi Gregorius.

Yankees lead the series 2-0

Game Three – Miller Park – Friday, October 25th

Masahiro Tanaka vs. Zach Davies

The curious case of Masahiro Tanaka. Sometimes Tanaka can be absolutely unhittable with his splitter striking out opposing batters, and then sometimes he is just incredibly hittable. Unfortunately, for the Yankees anyway, the latter Tanaka and not the former will show up to this start tonight. The Brewers will ride the emotions and energy from the crowd to a huge victory, setting the tone for the remainder of the home stand.

Yankees lead the series 2-1

Game Four – Miller Park – Saturday, October 26th

JA Happ vs. Jimmy Nelson

Happ is a stone-cold veteran that has been here before. Happ has a World Series ring on his mantle and another trip to the Fall Classic against the New York Yankees in 2009. There is ice in Happ’s veins when it comes to pitching in the postseason and he will be completely overwhelming for the Yankees in this start tonight. Happ leads the Yankees to the victory and brings them within one game of their 28^th World Series championship.

Yankees lead the series 3-1

Game Five – Miller Park – Sunday, October 27^th

Luis Severino vs. Jhoulys Chacin

The Brewers are better than a lot of teams with their backs against the wall, and they will do that again tonight against the Yankees ace. Severino will pitch well, but the Brewers offense will be relentless against him and the Yankees bullpen, grinding out a victory and allowing the series to shift back to New York.

Yankees lead the series 3-2

Game Six – Yankee Stadium – Tuesday, October 29th

James Paxton vs. Chase Anderson

James Paxton is back on the mound for his second start of his World Series career, but unfortunately, he will be equally as ineffective as he was in Game Two? Why? Because it’s more dramatic if these predictions go seven games, even though I really see the Yankees closing the door at home in Game Six behind Big Maple.

Yankees and Brewers tied at 3-3

Game Seven – Yankee Stadium – Wednesday, October 30th

Masahiro Tanaka vs. Jhoulys Chacin

Game seven of the World Series at Yankee Stadium. It doesn’t get any better than this. The Yankees have Masahiro Tanaka on the mound with a short leash, while the Brewers were forced to bring back their ace on just two days rest. Both teams will go all-in and remove their starter at the first sign of trouble, but the difference is that the Yankees have a much deeper, and ultimately much better, bullpen. The bullpen will be the difference maker. While the Yankees bullpen puts up six shutout innings, the Brewers bullpen will fold when it matters most, giving the Yankees their 28^th World Series championship.

Yankees win series 4-3

Congratulations to the New York Yankees! All the patience, getting under the luxury tax, and waiting on the new core to come up through the minor league system finally paid off. See you all in the Canyon of Heroes.

Predicting the Yankees 2019 Season

The New York Yankees enter the 2019 season with expectations higher than the 2018 season, and maybe expectations that cannot simply be put into words. This is the season for the Bronx Bombers to win the World Series and make a deep run into the postseason. We have been told that the team was going to get under the luxury tax threshold, and we all watched as a fan base as the team passed on marque free agents like Max Scherzer, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and others. We watched as the Boston Red Sox won World Series championships and we watched as the game as we once knew it passed us by. Well, the time for excuses is over in my opinion. The Yankees are no longer “re-tooling” or rebuilding, no, they are in win-now mode. Will that translate onto the field here in 2019? That we will have to stay tuned for, but this is what I see happening this year for the Yankees.

I think the Yankees will surprise a lot of people this season, even though they shouldn’t. I think the first base situation will be much improved over the 2018 version, whether that be with Luke Voit as the incumbent or with Greg Bird finally putting it all together for a full season, and I think the catching situation will be much better as well. I don’t want to speculate on the health of Gary’s shoulder last season and guess at how it affected his ability to hit, nor do I want to speculate on the health of his groin/hamstring muscles and how they affected his ability to run down the line and block pitches behind the plate. Instead, I’ll just focus on the fact that throughout his professional career he has shown an ability to defend much better, hit much better, and just overall be a much better overall player. I don’t think the league figured him out and I don’t think he is just lazy, those are just lazy excuses to make for a young player that struggles for the first time. Gary will be better, and the fans need to be too.

The Yankees pitching should be much better in 2019. Severino is changing things up to battle him tipping pitches and he is also working on not tiring out in the second half of the season. It happens with young pitchers, especially after throwing 200 innings for the first time in their careers. They tire out. Severino will be fine and should be much better in the second half of 2019. James Paxton is essentially replacing Sonny Gray and as long as Paxton can pitch inside Yankee Stadium, where Gray could not, he should do just fine. Lefties just pitch better inside Yankee Stadium because of the narrative that they can neutralize left-handed hitting and eliminate the short porch in right field. A full season of Happ, even if he doesn’t pitch like the 7-0 madman that he was with the Yankees in the second half last season, will only benefit the Yankees while many forget that we should also see the return of Jordan Montgomery at some point as well. Tanaka will be Tanaka and CC will be CC but look out for Jonathan Loaisiga. If this kid can stay healthy, he could be a rotation mainstay as soon as the 2019 season, barring an injury to one of the Yankees current starters.

The bullpen will be the bullpen. There’s nothing I can say that hasn’t already been said a million times. On paper it should be amazing and a force to be reckoned with. The bench will likely be Tyler Wade, who can play everywhere, Austin Romine as the backup catcher, and maybe Clint Frazier? I know the team has all but said that he would start the season in Triple-A, but until that happens, I am in the camp that just doesn’t buy it. Who is the fourth outfielder? Stanton? Something isn’t adding up.

Right around the time of the year where every team is looking to add an impact bat or arm the Yankees will do both with the presumed returns of both Didi Gregorius and Jordan Montgomery from Tommy John surgery. That's nothing to shake a stick at, and it doesn't cost the Yankees a thing. 

In closing, the Yankees will be a much-improved team in 2019. I truly believe they will win the division, and not just because I am a Yankees fan. Check my previous posts. I have picked the Yankees to place second, win the first Wild Card, win the second Wild Card, and even miss the playoffs completely in my time with the blog. I truly believe in this team, now they just have to go out there and make me look like a genius and win a World Series championship.

Tune in tomorrow for my predictions for the rest of the league and their standings for the 2019 season!

Meet the 2019 Yankees: JA Happ

The New York Yankees got everything they could have asked for, well… almost everything, from JA Happ last season after acquiring him from the Toronto Blue Jays for a package made up of Brandon Drury and others. New York liked him so much, in fact, that on December 17, 2018 the team decided to bring him back on a two-year deal worth $34 million with an option for a third season. Yankees fans are already pretty familiar with Happ after his 7-0 record with the team in 2018, and his subsequent “let down” for lack of a better word in the postseason against the Boston Red Sox, but for those who aren’t, let’s meet him. Your 2019 New York Yankees, here is lefty JA Happ.

JA Happ, 36-years old, is a left-handed starting pitcher that handles himself well on the mound with his 6’5” and 205 lb. frame. Happ possesses a 93 MPH four-seam fastball, a 91 MPH sinker, an 86 MPH slider, an 86 MPH changeup, and a curveball that he rarely throws at 76 MPH.

James Anthony Happ was born on October 19, 1982 in Peru, Illinois with two older sisters. Happ attended High School at St. Bede Academy, where the lefty was a four-year letter winner in both basketball and baseball. Happ graduated from St. Bede in 2001 and continued his amateur baseball career at Northwestern University where he majored in history. Happ also played for the Northwestern Wildcats where he was named All-Big Ten Conference First Team in his freshman, sophomore, and junior years while attending the university. After his junior season the Philadelphia Phillies drafted the lefty in the third round, 92^nd overall, of the 2004 MLB First Year Players Draft. Happ signed immediately and was assigned to the Phillies minor league system.

Happ toiled in the Phillies minor league system and the Arizona Fall League through the 2007 season until Philadelphia called up the lefty to make his major league debut on June 30, 2007. Happ made one start against the New York Mets before being sent back to Triple-A for the remainder of the 2007 season. Happ started the 2008 season back in Triple-A as well, but he was back in the majors again starting against the Mets again on July 4^th. Happ was up and down between Triple-A and the majors for the remainder of the 2008 season until he became a mainstay in the Phillies rotation in 2009. Happ, with a World Series ring after the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, entered the rotation in 2009 and led Philadelphia back to the World Series in 2009, this time against the New York Yankees. The Yankees would win the series in six games, sending Happ and the Phillies home with a bitter taste in their mouths.

Happ was back in the Phillies rotation in 2010 until the team traded him to the Houston Astros on July 29^th along with Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar in exchange for Roy Oswalt. Happ remained in Houston until the 2012 season when he was traded again, this time to the Toronto Blue Jays along with Brandon Lyon and David Carpenter for Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Asher Wojciechowski, David Rollins, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, and Kevin Comer. Happ pitched primarily out of the bullpen with the Blue Jays through the 2014 season before he was once again traded, this time to the Seattle Mariners for Michael Saunders. Happ was used primarily as a starter for the Mariners in 2015 before being shipped to the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 31, 2015, Happ hit free agency after the 2015 season and could finally decide his own landing spot after being traded so many times before, and the lefty decided that Toronto was where he wanted to pitch after signing a three-year deal worth $36 million with the Blue Jays keeping him in Toronto through the 2018 season.

Happ lasted in Toronto until July 26, 2018 when the Blue Jays shipped him to the New York Yankees for outfielder Billy McKinney and third baseman Brandon Drury. Happ remained with the Yankees for the remainder of the 2018 season posting a 7-0 record, helping propel New York to the postseason as a Wild Card winner for the second consecutive season. The Yankees finished the season with 100 victories, but their season ended prematurely at the hand of the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Happ returned to the Yankees on a free agent deal after the 2018 season, this time for two-years and $34 million including an option for a third season.

Not that I have to again, but welcome back to the team, welcome back to the organization, and welcome back to the family JA.

Looking at the Yankees Payroll After the DJ LeMahieu Signing

So, you guys and girls remember that time I broke it down and explained how the New York Yankees could not only sign both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper off the free agent market, but they could also do it while staying under the luxury tax? Yeah, about that. That didn’t exactly work out and now it seems like it is unlikely that the Yankees sign either of the 26-year old “generational” talents off the free agent market this offseason. I mean, they could, but after crunching the numbers on the payroll does it look completely unlikely? Keep reading…

Guaranteed 2019 Contracts (AAV in Parenthesis)

Giancarlo Stanton - $26 million ($25 million)

13-year deal worth $325 million with a full no-trade clause, an opt-out clause after the 2020 season, and a 2028 team option worth $25 million with a $10 million buyout. Stanton also receives $50,000 for each All-Star appearance, Silver Slugger Award and Gold Glove Award. Stanton also receives $100,000 per MVP Award and $500,000 for each World Series MVP Award achieved throughout the contract. If Stanton does not opt-out after the 2020 season the Miami Marlins will retain $30 million in Stanton’s salary.

Masahiro Tanaka - $22 million ($22,142,857 million)

Seven-year deal worth $155 million with a full no-trade clause.

Jacoby Ellsbury - $21,142,857 million ($21,857,143 million)

Seven-year deal worth $153 million including a team option for the 2021 season worth $21 million and a $5 million buyout. Ellsbury also contains a full no-trade clause written into his contract.

Aroldis Chapman - $15 million plus $2.2 million signing bonus ($17.2 million)

Five-year deal worth $86 million including an $11 million signing bonus paid in equal increments ($2.2 million) annually throughout the length of the contract. Chapman has an opt-out clause after the 2019 season and a full no-trade clause through 2019. Chapman has a modified no-trade clause for 2020 and 2021 if he does not exercise his opt-our clause that keeps him from being traded to a West Coast team.

JA Happ - $17 million ($17 million)

Two-year deal worth $34 million including a vesting option for 2021 worth $17 million if Happ pitches 165 IP or makes 27 starts in 2020.

CC Sabathia - $8 million ($8 million)

One-year deal worth $8 million

Brett Gardner - $7.5 million ($7.5 million)

One-year deal worth $7.5 million

Zach Britton - $13 million ($13 million)

Three-year deal with an opt-out after two years if the fourth-year team option and player option is not picked up by the club after the second year. The contract could be anywhere from two-years and $26 million, three-years and $39 million if the fourth-year option is declined but Britton does not opt-out, to four-years and $53 million. Britton will also receive $1 million if he is traded any time throughout the contract.

DJ LeMahieu - $12 million ($12 million)

Two-year deal worth $24 million

Troy Tulowitzki - $555K ($555K)

One-year deal worth $555K (remaining salary paid by the Toronto Blue Jays) with a full no-trade clause.

Total: $144,397,857 million (145,155,119 million)

All salaries via Spotrac.com

Remember, and I don’t know why there is a difference here, that arbitration salaries are classified as non-guaranteed contracts. That’s why those salaries that were agreed upon by eight of the nine arbitration eligible Yankees players this week are not listed here.

Pre-Arbitration 2019 Salaries – Valued at $555K each (waiver options in parenthesis)

Albert Abreu (3)

Domingo Acevedo (3)

Chance Adams (3)

Miguel Andujar (2)

Luis Cessa

Thairo Estrada (3)

Clint Frazier

Domingo German

Chad Green

Joe Harvey

Ben Heller

Kyle Higashioka

Jonathan Holder (2)

Aaron Judge

Tim Locastro (3)

Jonathan Loaisiga (3)

Jordan Montgomery

Gary Sanchez

Stephen Tarpley

Gleyber Torres (3)

Luke Voit (3)

Tyler Wade

Total: $11,655,000 million (21 players x $555K each)

Without waiver options for the Minor Leagues the players without a waiver option by their name cannot be sent down to Triple-A without first clearing waivers and cannot be sent down without their consent. Also, I am well aware that there are 22 players listed here and the tally only has 11 players on it. I am assuming that one of these 22 players, Luis Cessa please, will be designated for assignment once the DJ LeMahieu contract is official, presumably next week.

All courtesy of Spotrac.com

 2019 Contracts for Arbitration-Eligible Players (MLBTR Projections in Parenthesis)

Dellin Betances (Arb 3) – $7.125 million ($6.4 million)

Greg Bird (Arb 1) – $1.2 million ($1.5 million)

Sonny Gray (Arb 3) – $7.5 million ($9.1 million)

Didi Gregorius (Arb 4) – $11.75 million ($12.4 million)

Aaron Hicks (Arb 3) – $6 million ($6.2 million)

Tommy Kahnle (Arb 2) – $1,387,500 million ($1.5 million)

James Paxton (Arb 3) – $8.575 million ($9.0 million)

Austin Romine (Arb 3) – $1.8 million ($2.0 million)

Luis Severino (Arb 1) – $5.1 million (projection, potentially heading to arbitration hearing)

Total: $44,437,506 ($53.2 million)

Let me be the first, well probably the 1,000,000^th, to say that I find it to be absolutely ridiculous that the Yankees are pinching pennies (at all) with ace Luis Severino. It has been reported that the Yankees offered $4.4 million while Severino asked the Yankees for $5.25 million. The Yankees are really going to squabble over $850K? Seriously? Especially with the obvious fact that the Yankees could see a contract like Sonny Gray moved in a deal now that his potential new team, cash-strapped teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds or San Diego Padres, know exactly how much salary they would be taking back in a potential deal. This isn't the beginning of the end of Severino inside a Yankees uniform like some have made it out to be, but damn it's not a good look either. 

Retained Salaries per Spotrac

Brett Gardner – $2 million buyout of his 2019 team option

Alex Rodriguez – $4 million in deferred salary

Total: $6 million

  

Why in the world is this team STILL paying Alex Rodriguez?

The Final Tallies

2019 Total Yankees Salaries As of 1/12/19

$223,490,363 million

2019 Luxury Tax Threshold According to MLB.com

$206 million

And now it makes sense that the Yankees would argue with Luis Severino over $850K? Maybe? Not really, as you add payroll every time you purchase a contract and add someone to the 40-man roster throughout the season. The Yankees are over the luxury tax threshold, but just barely (if at all… remember, Luis Severino’s salary is still a projection) Especially when you consider just how likely it is for Sonny Gray to be traded, as we mentioned earlier, now that the team and 5^th starter CC Sabathia has a clean bill of health, all things considered. So, do the Yankees have the money to add much more? Do the Yankees have the ability to add a reliever in Adam Ottavino? An infielder in Manny Machado? An outfielder in Bryce Harper? The luxury tax and the penalties for going over the luxury tax may have the answer for that.




EDIT: According to Fangraphs you have to include an extra $17 million to your luxury tax to cover medical expenses, travel expenses, etc. according to the Collective Bargaining agreement. Either way, the Yankees are over the luxury tax threshold. 

For teams that are exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the first time, which the Yankees are after resetting their penalties by getting under the luxury tax threshold last season, the penalty for every dollar spent over the $206 million luxury tax threshold is a 20% penalty up to $20 million. To use even numbers, for every $10 million the Yankees go over the threshold the team must pay an extra $2 million to the league in penalties, obviously meaning $20 million would force the team to incur $4 million in penalties. If the team exceeds $20 million over the cap, but spends under $40 million over the luxury tax threshold, the penalty grows to 32% after a 12% surtax. Exceeding $40 million over the cap penalizes a team 62.5% (42.5% surtax on top of initial 20% tax) on every dollar as well as costing the team 10 places in the Rule 4 MLB Draft. The top six picks are protected, but a team with a 7^th overall pick or later would see their highest selection in the MLB First Year Players Draft moved back 10 places. If your team falls in the top six of the MLB Draft, which the Yankees do not, they would see their second highest pick in the draft moved back by 10 places instead.

So, a hypothetical deal worth $30 million annually in salary for either Harper or Machado would cost the Yankees an extra $9.6 million in 2019 alone. Signing both to a pair of $30 million annual salaries would end up costing the Yankees $85.5 million in 2019 instead of the $60 million that most Yankees fans see, thus making it like the Yankees are signing three generational talents instead of just two. That’s also not counting the fact that the tax penalties get tougher each year the Yankees are over the cap and the fact that New York will slide 10 places in the draft.

A hypothetical deal with Adam Ottavino though, projected to earn $10 million annually over three-years according to MLB Trade Rumors, would only cost the Yankees a total of $12 million though and would allow the team to keep their current position in the 2019 MLB Draft. That’s before considering that the Yankees could potentially move at least $7.5 million in Sonny Gray’s salary, thus costing the Yankees less in terms of luxury tax penalties by signing Ottavino.

In closing, Ken Rosenthal and many other insiders may not be counting out the Yankees just yet, but the numbers don’t lie. Aside from the possibility of signing RHP Ottavino, a signing I am a huge supporter of, it looks like the Yankees heavy lifting this offseason, barring a major trade, is over. The Yankees may grab Ottavino to finish off the bullpen, or they may head into spring training with the team as it is currently assembled, but one thing seems really clear though, given the history of Hal Steinbrenner as the Yankees principal owner, neither Machado nor Harper will be donning pinstripes in 2019.

Grab your pitchforks, Yankees fans, this is going to be a wild month of January and February when these two 26-year old players sign elsewhere. Be ready.