Friday, July 27, 2018

Step Back From The Ledge, Folks!

I'm not the least bit surprised to see so many Yankees fans overreact to the news about Aaron Judge's injury.

Before I get into why there's little to no reason to be worried, I want to say that losing Judge for a month or so stinks. Aaron is one of the best players in baseball. And yes, I said "players", not just "hitters". While I shouldn't have to go into why Judge is one of the best batters in the game, I feel the need to point out that he's also one of the best right fielders too. Among all qualified right fielders in Major League Baseball, Judge is #1 in Defensive Runs Saved. As for UZR/150, Aaron ranks 2nd behind Mookie Betts, and well ahead of the third place Max Kepler.

So don't confuse what I'm about to say, and make it into a "Bryan doesn't think the Yankees need Aaron Judge" type of things.

Aaron clearly makes this team better and is perhaps the biggest reason the Yankees made it to within one game of the World Series last year, and may very well get them all the way this season. But losing him for the next month is not a season killer what-so-ever.

Here are the teams the Yankees will face in the next month...

Kansas City - 3 times
Baltimore - 6 times
Boston - 4 times
Chicago White Sox- 4 times
Texas - 4 times
New York Mets - Once
Tampa - 3 times
Miami - 2 times

Now, let's look at each team individually...

Kansas City
The Yankees have not only outscored the Royals 27-11, Kansas City has the worst offense in the entire league with just 367 runs scored (the Yankees have scored 524)

The Yankees have outscored the Orioles 60-42, and Manny Machado was responsible for 10 of those 42 runs. Baltimore was already the second worst offense in runs scored, and they just traded away their biggest (and arguably only) weapon.

This is the only stretch of games in which I have any level of worry. I don't think losing this series would be the worst thing to happen (as long as they aren't swept), as they could still make up the 4.5 games they are currently behind, but the Red Sox are the only team the Yankees will face over the next month to have outscored them (53-49). But note that Gray has been better as of late, and he gave up a combined 12 runs in just 5.1 innings against them in two starts this season. Gray's not the only starter that's been hit hard, as Tanaka gave up six runs in five innings, and Severino gave up five runs in 5 innings. I don't know about you, but I firmly believe Gray, Tanaka, and Severino can and will do better.

Chicago White Sox
The Yankees have yet to face the southsiders, but I'm hardly concerned about the Yankees' four games against them coming up in the next month. The Bombers have scored 112 more runs than the White Sox this season.

The Rangers are not a bad offensive team, and in their three games against each other, the Yankees have only outscored them 24-23. But when I see poor starts from Sabathia (seven runs in 4.1 innings) and German (six runs in 3.2 innings), along with a couple bad relief performances from Shreve (two runs in .1 innings) and Robertson (a run in .2 innings), I'm actually not worried at all.

New York Mets
When you look at the fact the Yankees have only outscored the Mets 20-19 in their five games, there may be reason for concern. But keep in mind that three of the runs the Mets have scored came in that horrible relief appearance from Chapman. Furthermore, the Mets scored four runs against German in just 3.2 innings.

Tampa Bay
In three games the Yanks have outscored the Rays 51-36. Yeah... I think the Yankees will be okay without Judge's offense.

In three games the Yankees have outscored the Blue Jays 51-36, and there's a good chance the Toronto offense will be worse as the Jays may be selling some of their bats before the trade deadline.

And finally, there's the Marlins, who have actually hit the Yankees fairly well, as you can see by their 10 runs against us in just two games. But when I see that seven of those ten runs came in just five innings against Tanaka, and two more were against Cessa in just one inning, my level of concern drops very low.

So, like I said, there's very little reason to be concerned and absolutely no reason for Brian Cashman to make a knee-jerk reaction and trade prospects of any value for another bat. If the Yankees lose at all, and not just in the next month, the blame is much more likely to fall on the pitching staff. Which makes the acquisitions of Zach Britton and JA Happ that much bigger than what it already was.

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)