One Year or Bust

Just in from MLBTR...

Steinbrenner hasn't yet approved a significant payroll boost, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Sherman's Twitter). It would be a one-year deal or nothing if Jackson signs in New York, even though the Yankees' baseball operations staff likes the right-hander. It appears likely that the Yankees will sign a starter like Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda orBartolo Colon in Sherman's view.

It wouldn't be the first time we saw a player, who is worthy of a multi-year deal, opting to sign for one year and go for a multi-year deal again the following season... when the market is better (Ryan Madsen, anyone?). But unless a number of players sign extensions, thus avoiding free agency, then the market next year would actually be worse for a guy like Edwin looking for more than a one year deal. For that reason I don't see a one year deal for Edwin Jackson coming, therefore I'm not expecting to see him in Yankee pinstripes.

But hearing that the Yankees are sticking with a one year deal makes me a very happy fan. Although Edwin would improve the Yankee rotation in 2012, I don't think it will be enough to justify a multi-year deal... which could keep the team from signing Hamels or others a year from now.

The Cuban OFers

River Avenue Blues posted an article regarding Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. It's been a while since we've heard about either player, but this month both of them should be made available as free agents.

In the past I've expressed a desire to sign Cespedes, and I stand by that today. As for Soler I'm not so sure, as he'd be yet another outfield prospect in the low minors, along with Mason Williams, Ravel Santana, and Slade Heathcott. Although it wouldn't be a bad thing at all to have another big-time prospect.

So all in all I say "get greedy" and sign both.

Patience is not a bad word

Listen to Axl. All we need is just a little patience.

Some Yankee fans have expressed their displeasure with the Yankees not improving. It's not necessarily because they believe the Yanks have to improve, but it's because others around them are. Which is a reasonable stance to take.

For one, the Red Sox were in a great position in 2011 to win the AL East before taking a major nose-dive, and it would be down-right insane to expect something like that to happen again. And you have to believe Carl Crawford will improve after putting up the worst batting average and on-base percentage of his career, second-worst slugging percentage since 2003 (his 1st full season in MLB), his lowest SB output since 2002 when he only played in 63 games, etc. And it's not like he was putting up better numbers in a different division, as he's spent his entire 10 year career in the AL East. Then there's the fact that Kevin Youkilis (a guy that I don't like, but will admit is good) and JD Drew each missed a large portion of the season. The Sox still have work to do on their rotation, which is even more questionable than the Yankees current crop of starters, but they too are in on guys such as Hiroki Kuroda.

The Rays were 6 games worse than the Bombers last season, yet they still won 91 games. But remember that Matt Moore only started 1 game for them last season, and his presence in the starting rotation all season will have a nice impact for sure. I'm not sure about Jeff Niemenn's back, but a full year out of him, holding down the back-end of the rotation with Jeremy Hellickson, will round out a very nice starting rotation. I do question the Rays offense though, as they scored the least amount of runs in the division in 2011 (707), and bringing in Luke Scott doesn't exactly make it any better.

The Toronto Blue Jays aren't going away quietly either. If they can find a way to better their run prevention, then I could definitely see them finishing 3rd in the division, and battle it out for the 2nd Wild Card berth next season. The Jays major concern when it came to giving up runs was their bullpen, which owner Alex Anthopoulos has done a good job of improving after bringing in Darren Oliver and Sergio Santos, as well as bringing back Jason Frasor. Not that their starters are all set, as they could use an improvement at the bottom where Jo-Jo Reyes and Kyle Drabek put up ERAs of 5.40 and 6.06 respectively. If Dustin McGowan, who is finally coming back after 3+ years with major shoulder issues, can be more like what we saw in 2007 and 2008, that would certainly help. And the Jays were in rumor talks regarding Matt Garza. Although that's cooled off quite a bit, it shows that Anthopoulos may not be finished.

And then there are the Yankees.... what have they done this off-season? Well, first and foremost, they brought back CC Sabathia, who was only days away from being a free agent. The Yanks also picked up the team option on Nick Swisher, which wasn't as much a no-brainer as bringing back CC was, but the idea of Beltran replacing Swish was not a great one anyway. That was followed by bringing back Freddy Garcia and Andruw Jones. There have been little things like signing Don Mattingly's son, Preston, to a minor league deal too. But I think the biggest change is going to be Jesus Montero being the full-time DH, in place of Jorge Posada. Bill James is predicting a triple-slash of .289/.351/.505 for Jesus, which is a slight upgrade from the triple-slash of 235/.315/.398 that Posada put up last year. Of course things would get better if Alex Rodriguez can give the team at least 130 games too (he only played in 99 in 2011). But nothing has really changed on the team from the end of last season. 8 of the 9 spots in the lineup are going to be the same, 4 of the 5 rotation spots will be filled by the same guys (Hughes will likely take Colon's spot), the bullpen is pretty much exactly the same (even moreso now that Corey Wade will be back), and even the bench has changed very little.

Whlie I believe the Yankees don't have to do anything more in order to compete for another division title, and to make a run at a 28th World Series victory, it would make things much simpler if they did (not that it would actually be simple no matter what). I'd sure has hell feel better if they were able to get a pitcher that could easily slot into the #2 or #3 spot. All in all though this comes down to the impatience of New Yorkers, and New York Yankees fans. We're certainly not used to seeing a team that's used the term "budget" when it comes to weighing free agent signings. But this is the way things are now, and I... for one.. am happy to see it. Caring about spending money now may allow the team to have the killer pitching duo of CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels in 2013 and beyond.

OMG! Edwin Jackson!

You can't go anywhere on the internet that has anything to do with the Yankees and not read about Hal Steinbrenner's meeting with Scott Boras, in regards to Edwin Jackson. I was going to hold off so that Greedy Pinstripes was the only place where you wouldn't have to deal with this "news", but I couldn't stop myself.

Look, this doesn't mean it's going to happen. Is it more likely? Yes. But I don't think this is much different than when Cashman checked in on Albert Pujols. It's due diligence. The Yankees haven't done anything to improve the rotation compared to last season, Edwin is still available, so check it out. Maybe his price has dropped so far that it would be silly to pass him up.

One thing to remember here... Scott came to Hal, not the other way around. Hal was in Phoenix for the baseball owners meeting. If it were the other way around I would change my tune, but until the Yankees go to Boras or Jackson for something then I'm not about to get excited or get my boxers in a bunch.

Dont Worry Yankees Fans... #28 Is In The Bag

A lot of you probably dont know but I am a New York Yankees fan living in Atlanta Georgia. I moved to Atlanta in October of 1999 due to family reasons. Many of you  probably know that we very rarely play the Braves in interleague play... The last time the Yankees came down to Atlanta was the last time I saw the Yankees live... 2009. Before that was in the mid to late 90's. 

Guess what, the Yankees play this year IN Atlanta in June.. and guess who is going? That would be me. Me in my usual seat of Section 118 Row 2 in Turner Field. I basically rest my right elbow on the Yankees visiting dugout railing. The best seats in the house.

Its fate gentlemen... 28 is 2012. Get on board the bandwagon. 

Alex Rodriguez 2012 MVP
CC Sabathia 2012 Cy Young
Jesus Montero AL ROY
Gold Gloves to Teix, Cano, Jeter, Granderson, & Martin


Really this post was supposed to be fun and kill time while we have nothing going on in mid January... but really.. Im going.. and really the last time we won a world series was when I went to see the Yankees in 2009. Baseball people are the most superstitious in the world and so am I.

Garza to Detroit would not be a big deal

With the news of Detroit being willing to deal away Jacob Turner, who is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, many believe the chances of the Yankees trading for Matt Garza are closer to "none" than "slim". Right away myself and other Yanks fans thought "dammit", but I had to ask myself... is that really a problem?

Sure, the Tigers get a lot better with Garza slotted behind Justin Verlander, along with Max Scherzer and Doug Fister. But I've always believed that if the Yankees do "their thing", then it doesn't matter what anybody else does. Especially when it comes to making moves in response to what the Red Sox do, which is something that always freaks out many Bomber fans.

The Yanks could still pick-up Kuroda and have a rotation that could put the team in position to beat anybody. Remember, we don't need a rotation like the one in Philadelphia in order to win. Hell, our offense was able to overcome AJ Burnett's sad starts the last two years.

Will Hamels reach free agency?

I like to read the "Truth and Rumors" section of FanNation at SI.com daily. I'm not really sure why, as they rarely post anything worth a damn, but I guess it's the little bit of "TMZ" in me. Today, however, I was interested in the following...

Philadelphia's rotation is an expensive one, and Cole Hamels is nearing a Jered Weaver-like payday. The Phillies have long been a club that likes to lock up young, core players and keep them off the free-agent market. At 28, [Hamels] fits that description. In fact, Phillies officials have commented that they'd like to keep the left-hander in red pinstripes for years to come. But it does not appear as if Hamels, who will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season, will get a long-term contract extension this winter. "We've had discussions with Cole," assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said during an appearance on Comcast SportsNet's Phillies Hot Stove on Tuesday night. "Right now, we're focused on a one-year deal."

Seeing the Phillies payroll for next season is already at around $108 million, which includes $20m to Halladay (who has another year and an option after 2012) and $25m to Lee (will have 3 more years and an option remaining), not to mention Victorino being a free agent and Pence being arbitration eligible again, I'm not sure they will have the money to bring Hamels back. It could certainly happen though, so I'm not 100% keen on waiting for him to hit free agency. But this is good news none-the-less.

Expanding the Budget

Yesterday Buster Olney reported that the Yankees are thinking of expanding the budget this season. This report was picked up by River Ave Blues, The LoHud Yankees blog, and elsewhere (the Olney article is Insider at ESPN.com). Here's the exact quote from Buster...

The New York Yankees will determine in the next couple of weeks whether they will expand their current budget, and this, of course, will determine exactly who they might add for their pitching staff.

My initial reaction was a positive one, as I'm not comfortable with the question marks in the rotation as it stands now. Can Ivan Nova repeat his 2011 season? Will AJ Burnett continue to be awful? Can Freddy Garcia contribute again? What about Phil Hughes? Honestly, it's CC Sabathia and then question, question, question, and question. So I would really like to see the Yankees acquire another starter, who can fit into the #3 or #2 spot in the rotation without a problem.

This is also a positive because earlier this off-season I expressed a desire to sign Hiroki Kuroda, after it was reported that he'd take a one year deal. That seems perfect, because after free agency next off-season, the team really wouldn't need another starter. They could have Sabathia, Hamels, and Nova in the top three spots, then fill the bottom with two of Burnett, Hughes, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, Banuelos, and Betances. I'm not saying the reasons for backing off of Kuroda a bit weren't legit, as signing him to $13 million would end up costing an extra $5 million or so due to the luxury tax. Last season the Yankees had to pay $13.9 million towards to luxury tax, due to a payroll of $212.7 million. As things stand now the Yankees are looking at paying a little under $10 million towards the Luxury Tax, with a payroll of around $202 million. Adding Kuroda could bring the payroll to $215 million, and cost the team $14.8 million for the Luxury Tax. So we're not talking about pinching pennies here.

Well, I spoke of my "initial reaction" in the last paragraph, which means I had a different reaction after thinking about it. And that reaction wasn't a great one after looking at the payroll and luxury tax numbers. Well, in the following case, the payroll and Luxury Tax cost would likely go down a bit, but not enough to overcome my other issues. I'm talking about signing Edwin Jackson. For one thing, it's going to cost a 3-4 year contract. Which throws a wrench into the plans of getting a starter next off-season (although there's no guarantee there will be anything really good out there anyway). And on top of that multi-year deal, I'm simply not a big fan of the guy.

Edwin has averaged 203.1 innings over the last three seasons. That's great, but AJ Burnett has averaged 194.2 innings over the last three seasons, and I'm not exactly jumping around in excitement over him possibly being a starter in 2012. Being a workhorse is great, but you have to have the effectiveness to go with it. Does Jackson? Well he's given up more hits per 9 innings each season over the last three years (including giving up more hits when he moved from the White Sox to the Cardinals during last season), his ERA+ of 109 over the last 3 years suggests that he's above average but not spectacular, his BABIP was pretty high last year which suggest a regression of some of his numbers (it was .338), his batting average against has gone up in each of the last 3 seasons, and his line drive percentage was a fairly high 25%.

So Edwin may help improve the rotation a bit, I don't think it's enough to warrant a 3-4 year deal. So the idea that the Yankees are expanding the budget, and will likely make some sort of improvement when it comes to the starting rotation, frightens me a bit. And all for different reasons (Kuroda's issue is the extra money, while Jackson's is the extra years). Oh, and that doesn't get into the possibility of Roy Oswalt and his problematic lower back.

Oh, AJ. What do we do with you?

Burch's post got me thinking...

The Yankees have made it clear recently that they care about spending. Gone are the days when they would buy all the best talent available, or at least try to. If George were still running things then there's a good chance that CJ Wilson would be a Yankee, Prince Fielder would be the new DH, and Jesus Montero would be down in AAA again next season thinking "what the hell?" But instead the Yanks are tighter with the dollar (a good thing, in my opinion), so we didn't bring in Wilson (nor Buehrle or Darvish), Jesus Montero will be the full-time DH, and the minor league system is not being seen as an after-thought or just outright ignored. I won't go as far as to believe they're going to get under the $189 million threshold for the Luxury Tax in 2014, but they aren't going to simply write-off $16.5 million either.

So to go along with Burch's post I'm going to give you the four things the Yankees could do with him, and give you my thoughts on each.

1. Send him to the minors.

I don't totally understand Major League Baseball rules, but I'm fairly certain that this is not really an option. I believe he'd have to pass through waivers before being sent down, and he wouldn't make it through because any team that picks him up would only have to pay him the league minimum of $480,000, while the Yankees would be on the hook for the remaining $16,020,000. Seeing that the Yankees care about money these days I don't see this happening.

2. Release him.

Well the whole money thing mentioned in the last option can be copied and pasted right here. This is essentially the same thing, only in this case AJ couldn't possibly end up in the Yankees minor league system.

3. Send him to the bullpen.

This seems to be the most liked option by those I've spoken with. They believe the team should just hide him in the bullpen, and only dust him off for mop-up duty after the game is already out of hand. It's funny, when I first wrote that sentence I thought, "well there won't be as many blow-outs for the guy doing mop-up duty with Burnett not starting", but it turns out that last season the Yankees lost more games by a difference of 3 or more runs with CC Sabathia on the mound than with AJ out there (6 to 5). But anyway... I don't think this is the best way to try and get the most value out of Burnett. Is it what's best for the team? Yeah, possibly. I mean, there's no obvious guy to take that rotation spot from AJ. I'd guess that guy would be Hector Noesi, but there's no way of knowing for sure that Hector would fare any better than AJ did. So if there's no certainty of an upgrade, then why bother? Especially when AJ was at least still worth $6.7 million, and the vast majority of that value came from his innings pitched (190.1). Hell, with Soriano, Robertson, and Rivera, Burnett would be lucky to throw more than 50 innings out of the bullpen. So that value would plummet. Don't believe me? David Robertson's value was $2.8 million, and I don't think a mop-up reliever would get anywhere near the same number that David got.

So can the Yankees do something with AJ Burnett that will at least get them some value, while not hurting their chances of winning? Well, I think so, which brings me to the fourth and final option...

4. Keep him in the rotation.

In 2010 Burnett's ERA+ was 82, and despite that ineffectiveness being there all season long, the Yankees still finished with the 2nd best record in the American League (1 game behind Tampa Bay). And last season his ERA+ was 86, and the Yankees finished with the best record in the American League. Part of that is because the Yanks got lucky that Boston collapsed like they did last season, but a big part of that is that the Yankee offense is just that powerful. If we had an offense like they do in Seattle then I'd be thinking "oh God, we can not let this guy pitch if we want to win". But since this is New York, then I can say "you know what, he may suck, but thank God we can still win due to a great offense".

Is there a chance the Yankees *gasp* miss the playoffs due to Burnett starting another 33 games? Sure. Especially if Phil Hughes can't turn things around and we have to lean on a kid like Noesi like we did with Ivan Nova last season. I'm certainly not guaranteeing that either the offense or Boston's poor play will bail out the team again, but it doesn't seem right to dismiss that as a possiblity since it's happened the last two years. But whatever, if I'm in charge AJ Burnett would start the season in the starting rotation. If things aren't looking good after the first month or two, then make a change. But I've seen teams that can win in spite of AJ's poor pitching, and I 100% believe the only value AJ has right now is eating innings, so let's give it a try.

What Can You Do With AJ Burnett?

Its almost the middle of January and nothing is happening in Yankee land but speculation, outrageous trade rumors(hopes), and fantasy baseball team prepping. Its hard to believe that guys like Prince Fielder & Ryan Madson are still available. Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately,  none of them are coming to the Yankees so we as a fan base seem to have nothing better to do then to bash Brian Cashman or bash Joe Girardi or bash players like Alex Rodriguez and AJ Burnett, to name a few. Alex Rodriguez has a full no trade clause and some outrageous hundred million dollar number worth of a contract left but AJ Burnett is intriguing when it comes to trade rumors.

The Yankees have come out and said that they are actively shopping AJ Burnett, not without good reason. The Yankees have even openly states that they are willing to eat up to 8 million dollar per season that AJ Burnett is contracted to move him. After watching Theo Epstein eat all but 2.5 million of Carlos Zambrano's hefty 18 million dollar contract it got me thinking what can we actually do with AJ Burnett? First of all Carlos Zambrano has only one year left on his contract where AJ Burnett has two seasons left under contract at 16.5 million dollar annually.

Carlos Zambrano has had emotional outbreak after emotional outbreak whether it be screaming at an umpire, screaming at opposing players, or beating up his own catcher. Not to mention all the water coolers that were harmed in making this story... He has also been injured in the past few seasons and even was banished to the bullpen for a short stint while in Chicago. Oh how could I forget how he walked out on his team and threatened retirement? AJ has not had emotional outbreaks that we , the fans, have seen.  AJ has not been seen screaming at players, umpires, managers, etc. AJ has not been in a fight if you believe his clubhouse black eye story. AJ has not missed a start, has not had an injury, and has not been banished to the bullpen.. and yet the Yankees will still NOT be trading AJ Burnett this offseason.

Realistically AJ Burnett has probably been the worst pitcher in all of baseball in the last 2 seasons. Out of 94 pitchers who qualified for being in stat leader contention only 2 pitchers posted a WORSE ERA then AJ Burnett last season, Fausto Carmona and Brad Penny. In 2010 AJ finished 90th out of 92 qualifying pitchers thus making him the ONLY pitcher to finish in the bottom 10 in BOTH seasons. AJ Burnett has ranked 13th among those same pitchers with a 7.19 runs per game run support... and the Yankees are still under .500 in his starts. He is not just eating innings anymore and he is not doing just enough to keep us in a game anymore he is making himself a real liability. Granted he is basically a 5th starter on this team but the problem is he is not being used as a #5, he is being used more like a #3. A #5 starter does not make a start in the postseason, period, especially with the playoffs on the line.

Let's be realistic here though and lets say, or even assume, that the Yankees are not going to be able to trade AJ Burnett. Someone MIGHT want to take a chance on a one year rental and a change a scenery but NO ONE is going to take AJ Burnett for 2 seasons even if it is at 8.5 million dollars annually. So what are the options for the Yankees?

1. Continue to pitch him
- This is the most ideal situation in my opinion.

2. Move him to the bullpen
- He already throws the most wild pitches of any pitcher basically ever. Imagine if he had to come in with runners on base...

3. Designate Him For Assignment (DFA)
- He wouldnt clear waivers because SOMEONE would pay for his prorated league minimum salary and let the Yankees be on the hook for the other 16+ million dollars for 2 seasons.

4. Pray to the baseball gods for Tommy John surgery
- Ok this one was a joke... seriously.

5. Eat most or all of his salary and get very little to nothing for him
- Why pay someone 16 million dollars AND a replacement player, even at league minimum, to do what AJ Burnett can do all by himself? For the sake of making a move? Seems pointless.

No one is going to argue that a AAA player in our system right now could duplicate or even improve on AJ Burnett's stats this season. Guys like Adam Warren, David Phelps, DJ Mitchell, Manny Banuelos, & Dellin Betances to name a few. It goes back to the fact that why would we pay AJ Burnett 16.5 million plus, for simplicity sake, pay one of these guys 500K to pitch and waste 17 million dollars to get what we could get for 16.5 million? Not to mention that if it is not Phelps or Betances that gets the call we have to make a 40 man and 25 man roster move.

For every Barry Zito and Kei Igawa that has been paid way too much money to rot in the bullpen, be left off playoff rosters, sent to AAA to set all time wins records and be the shameful talk of the town there has been 10 times as many Carl Pavano's and Hideki Irabu's and Jason Giambi's and Jorge Posada's that are left to painfully play every day (when healthy) and not even come close to getting true value out of their contracts. It just doesnt happen and it just doesnt make sense in most cases.

So what do we do with AJ Burnett? Nothing... Throw him every 5th day, let him average his 5.94 IP per game, let him make his 33-35 starts a season, let him go over a 5 point ERA and totally implode in August, win 90+ games again, win the AL East again, and worry about it next year.