Wednesday, October 23, 2013

My World Series Prediction - Bryan Van Dusen

I have watched very little of the 2013 postseason.

"Whoa, there. I thought you were a baseball fan?"

The main reason is that, to put it simply, the Yankees are not a part of it. Watching any sporting event is more fun if you have a rooting interest in it. That's not to say that it's "Yankees or bust" with me, as I do love the game itself. I just find it hard to watch baseball right after the Yankees season is over with. 

But it's time for the World Series! At this point I don't care who you root for. If you truly are a fan of baseball, then you're going to be tuning in. Personally, I'm over the fact that the Yankees are not going to be a part of it. It's time to just be a baseball fan and watch. 

Oh, and root hard for the Cardinals to beat the crap out of Boston!

Here's how I think the 2013 World Series will play out...

Game 1

Adam Wainwright has thrown the ball extremely well this postseason, as he currently has an ERA of 1.57 and WHIP of 0.78. Looking back at the postseason, the Sox beat up on Matt Moore and David Price, but I'm sure it helps that Boston has faced Moore five times, while they've faced Price twenty times. Meanwhile this will be the first time Wainwright has ever faced Boston. 

Not that I see the Cardinals putting up double-digits on Jon Lester. St. Louis hasn't seen Lester since one game in 2008. Sure, Lester was hit fairly hard that night, but the 2008 Cardinals and 2013 Cardinals are not the same team. Lester has done pretty well in the playoffs, with an ERA of 2.33.

I think the Cardinals win Game 1, but don't expect many runs from either side. The Sox have a slightly better bullpen, but I think the Cards will have a lead that the offense can't overcome.

Game 2
St. Louis leads series 1-0

Game 2 will see Micheal Wacha vs. John Lackey. While Wainwright has done very well in the playoffs for the Cardinals, Wacha has done even better. Michael's ERA so far in the postseason is 0.43, and his WHIP is only a bit higher... 0.57. Which leads me to believe Red Sox fans are going to get impatient with their offense again.

John Lackey hasn't done too badly, either. Sure, his ERA of 3.00 and WHIP of 1.17 isn't quite as impressive as Wacha's, but John shouldn't feel ashamed of his performance in the playoffs either. But will the John Lackey that faced the Rays arrive at the park tonight, or will the John Lackey that faced the Tigers show up? If it's the Lackey that faced the Rays, or even in between those two guys, then Boston could be in trouble.

I was ready to say St. Louis will take a 2-0 series lead back home, but I have a feeling that this is the first time in the postseason that a team gets to Michael Wacha. The final score may not be that high, but the Red Sox will score just enough to win and even things up.

"So close to going home with the series lead."

Game 3
Series tied 1-1

It's time for both teams to put on a little hitting display.

The starter for the Cardinals, Joe Kelly, was hit hard by the Dodgers in Game 5 the NLCS. Joe gave up 4 runs off of 7 hits, two of them home runs. Kelly only gave up 5 runs in his previous two postseason starts against the same Dodgers in Game 1 and the Pirates in the NLDS, but Joseph gave up too many hits and walked too many batters (11 and 6, respectively, in 11.1 innings). 

Then there's Boston starter Clay Buchholz. He wasn't bad against the Tigers in Game 6 the ALCS, going 5 innings while giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits. But those same Tigers roughed him up for 5 runs off of 8 hits, including two homers, in Game 2 of that series. And giving up 7 hits, one of them a home run, and walking three hitters against the Rays in the ALDS was not good either.

While it was easy for me to pick a winner in the first two games, this one makes me think a bit more. And when I think too much, I know there may be a problem. Another problem is that I'm going to let home field decide this one for me. The St. Louis fans are awesome, and I'm going to say they push their team to that extra run needed to win this game.

Game 4
St. Louis leads series 2-1

If both teams put on a little hitting display in Game 3, then it's time for both teams to put on a big hitting display in Game 4.

Okay, so maybe I'm exaggerating a bit. While Jake Peavy has an ERA of 8.31, and Lance Lynn has an ERA of 5.40, it's not as though both pitchers have been lit up in each of their starts. In fact, even though he was beat up by the Tigers in Game 4 of the ALCS, Jake Peavy threw pretty well in his first start of the postseason against the Rays. 

Lance Lynn has only started two games, as he had to come into Game 1 of the NLCS in relief, and did a fine job in his two innings... earning the win. Lynn's one bad performance came in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Pirates, when he gave up 5 runs thanks to 7 hits and 3 walks. 

In yet another game where the winner doesn't stand out to me, I'm taking the Cardinals. But unlike Game 3, I think St. Louis wins this game decidedly. I'm not talking about a score of 9-0, or something like that, but Cards fans won't be biting their fingernails in the top of the 9th inning of this one. Instead, Busch Stadium will be electric as fans know they're just one win away from winning the World Series.

Game 5
St. Louis leads series 3-1

Can the Cardinals win it all at home? 

Although starters haven't been announced for this game, I imagine it'll be a rematch between Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright. 

While it's easy to see why Boston will put Lester out there in an elimination game, it wouldn't surprise me if the Cardinals, with a 3-1 lead in the series, gave Wainwright a bit more rest. But why not try and win it all at home instead of going back to Boston? Besides, with another off day coming up, and St. Louis having two other very good starters, there's no reason to let up here.

I see this being a closer than it was in Game 1. Boston's bullpen will keep St. Louis from doing any damage, while the Sox hitters will put up a couple extra runs to send the series back to the east coast.

Game 6
St. Louis leads series 3-2

This is as close to a "must win" for the Red Sox as they come. After Lackey, Boston doesn't have another truly dependable starter. 

Of course, St. Louis will run Michael Wacha out there for another shot at winning it all. 

I'm happy to say that we see more of John Lackey 2012 (6.41 ERA), than we do John Lackey 2013 (3.52 ERA). In the past it's been walks that have really hurt Lackey, and they will haunt him again on this night and for the rest of his life. Cardinal hitters will be a bit more patient at the plate this time than in Game 2 against Lackey, leading to a few too many runs scored for the Sox to overcome.

 St. Louis wins series 4-2

Revenge for 2004.

I'm sure my hatred for the Boston Red Sox had something to do with me picking the Cardinals to beat them. But I don't care. St. Louis has the ability to win, so I don't think I'm going out on a limb here at all. Boston is a good team, though, so I really wouldn't be surprised if the result is the opposite of what I just said. 

So enjoy the Series, and join me in rooting hard for the Cardinals.


  1. I can't see this series NOT going seven games but other than that I agree with you. Join us as the Yankees root for the Cardinals lol

    1. The result of any game, let alone the series, would not surprise me at all. The teams are very well matched.


Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)