Saturday, December 6, 2014

Complete The Three-Headed Monster

After the Yankees signed Andrew Miller it seemed as though the relationship between the team and David Robertson was coming to an end. While some fans were upset at this prospect because they hate to see homegrown guys let go, I was more upset about the fact that I believe David Robertson is simply better than Miller. If the Yankees are up by one run going into the 9th inning, who would I rather seem come out to save the game? Andrew Miller or David Robertson? My answer is simple... D-Rob.

"That's right, baby!"

Seeing what the Kansas City Royals did last year, and the fact that having the best bullpen in baseball was a huge help to their success (fun fact: the Royals and Yankees were actually tied for the highest fWAR among relievers), I can't help but think that there's a real possibility of the Yankees going into next season with a three-headed monster in the bullpen.

Can you imagine having Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller take care of the 6th and 7th innings, on top of being able to handle the 5th inning as well if necessary? And then, in the 9th inning, out comes one of the best closers in the game... David Robertson? Wouldn't that be incredible?

But thinking about this... having that strong of a bullpen doesn't just help the team in the last few innings of the game. To show you what I'm talking about, here are some career stats. These are the batting lines a pitcher gives up by inning, broken up into thirds (thanks to Baseball Reference). The first four guys listed will be around at some point in the 2015 season, while the final two very well could be (at least I hope so).

Masahiro Tanaka
1-3 - .249/.292/.380
4-6 - .232/.258/.382
7-9 - .237/.263/.395

Michael Pineda
1-3 - .186/.242/.313
4-6 - .214/.255/.313
7-9 - .323/.425/.581

CC Sabathia
1-3 - .242/.300/.382
4-6 - .260/.319/.397
7-9 - .235/.294/.339

Ivan Nova
1-3 - .261/.320/.400
4-6 - .286/.356/.455
7-9 - .264/.337/.419

Brandon McCarthy
1-3 - .257/.309/.377
4-6 - .283/.321/.454
7-9 - .258/.301/.457

Max Scherzer
1-3 - .232/.297/.385
4-6 - .259/.320/.411
7-9 - 210/.265/.333

Looking at those numbers makes me believe that starters come in three varieties...

  1. Come out of the gate on fire, then have their performances taper off as the game goes on (see Pineda).
  2. Start off strong, settle down in the middle innings, then empty the tank in the final three innings (see Scherzer).
  3. Start off strong, dial things back in the middle innings, then muscle up again at the end but save something just in case (Sabathia, Nova, McCarthy).

Actually, there seems to be a fourth variety, but I wouldn't count on that type to go on throughout a career. That would be the guy that's just awesome throughout the game (see Tanaka).

"O Ye, of little faith."

If you're a starter, knowing that you have a trio of relievers that can crush anybody, then there's no reason to go into cruise control at any point in the game. I believe a starter can be at his best for at least five innings, and when talking about really good to great starters then getting at least six innings of their best stuff is hardly a lot to ask. And with that in mind, go to the stats above and take out the worst batting lines, leaving you with a pitcher's best six innings.

Masahiro Tanaka
4-6 - .232/.258/.382
7-9 - .237/.263/.395

Michael Pineda
1-3 - .186/.242/.313
4-6 - .214/.255/.313

CC Sabathia
1-3 - .242/.300/.382
7-9 - .235/.294/.339

Ivan Nova
1-3 - .261/.320/.400
7-9 - .264/.337/.419

Brandon McCarthy
1-3 - .257/.309/.377
7-9 - .258/.301/.457

Max Scherzer
1-3 - .232/.297/.385
7-9 - 210/.265/.333

If you're mouth isn't salivating looking at this numbers, and imagining that that's what you could get out of the Yankees' starters, then there's a good chance you're actually dead. If that's the case then I'm really scared, because that means zombies are real, and it's only a matter of time before I have to turn myself into a Twinkie-loving bad-ass.

Little Rock: Who's Bill Murray?
Tallahassee: I've never hit a kid before. I mean, that's like asking who Gandhi is.

Yankees fans are worried, and for good reason, that the 2015 offense isn't going to be a whole lot better than the 2014 one. As things sit right now, the only upgrade the team has made offensively is replacing 2014 Derek Jeter's anemic bat with Didi Gregorius' not-much-better bat. That means we'd be left hoping Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran can provide the team with a hell of a lot more than they showed last season, while Alex Rodriguez won't be a zero (or worse) after more than a year and a half of nothing. And without a big trade happening, I don't see how things could bet much better in this area. Free agency simply has little to nothing to offer.

Therefore, making run prevention a very strong point is key to the Yankees finding success during the 2015 season. Which means re-signing David Robertson. Which means signing somebody like Brandon McCarthy. And could even mean signing a stud like Max Scherzer. Anything less than that and I'm going to find it hard to be too optimistic about the team's chances to win next year.

4 comments:

  1. While those numbers look good aren't they a little skewed? Especially the 7-9 numbers. The only time a pitcher is going to see 7+ innings, especially on a Joe Girardi led team, is if they are absolutely dominating in 1-6. The sample size, without looking it up myself, has to be a lot smaller and flawed I would think.

    Maybe I'm wrong I am just thinking out loud here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You may absolutely be right. However, I don't think those numbers are so skewed to what you're saying that it changes my point.

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  2. Sign Robertson to complete the three-headed monster, sign Scherzer, sign Headley.

    Signing Headley makes Prado's versatility a much bigger plus, and helps the offense. And after signing Scherzer, or even McCarthy, teams will rarely show on us.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I agree 100% Bryan. I want the starting pitchers to only have to go 5 IP a night and still give the team a chance to win. Anything more is gravy.

    Also I didn't really think about that but you're right, if martin is stuck to third base he does lose his most valuable asset to the team, his versatility.

    ReplyDelete

Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)