Friday, August 21, 2015

Comparing Nathan Eovaldi to Matt Harvey? Say What?


The New York Yankees and Nathan Eovaldi, with a little help from Greg Bird, were able to lock down a series sweep of the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday afternoon in the Bronx. With the victory Eovaldi was able to lock down his 13th win of the season for the team, easily a team high. In our comments section of the site, which you should check out in my opinion because it's growing every day and there are some great minds and fans in there, from Day One of the Eovaldi trade some have been against the trade and some have shown some patience. I personally was always on the "patience" bandwagon because Eovaldi was showcased as a work in progress and has been a work in progress this season. He's been up and he's been down but the good news for the Yankees is he's been more up than down in the past few months.

With every bad Eovaldi start you have the "I told you so's" flying while you have much of the same during every good start from Nathan. The biggest complaints on Eovaldi this season have been the run support he's received and his lack of length that he is giving the team and quite often he has been compared, however loosely, to Matt Harvey in the comments section. In no way, shape or form does anyone think Eovaldi is on the same level playing field  but the running comment always was something along the lines of "give Matt Harvey seven runs of run support a game and he would have a lot of wins too." That's a valid point I guess, he hasn't received a ton of run support (4.1) that Eovaldi has (5.5) according to the RS/GS (run support per game started) stat on Baseball Reference, but the good thing about sabermetrics is there are plenty of stats to quantify a pitchers performance.


FIP, or fielding independent pitching, takes out everything that the pitcher cannot control including run support, defense, unearned runs, etc. and gives you the true value of a pitcher. I posted this in the comments section but I wanted to bring this stat to the attention of a broader audience who may or may not have seen the comment.

Eovaldi's FIP - 3.52 in 136 IP (+0.72 difference in ERA)
Harvey's FIP - 3.41 in 154 IP (-0.84 difference in ERA)

FYI, the lower the FIP the better. Eovaldi is not Harvey and he's not the true ace that Harvey is but he may not be the "water pistol" that some have called him this season. He, according to this stat anyway, has been quietly having one of the better seasons in the American League. Eovaldi isn't Harvey and with this team and he doesn't have to be but he's been great for the Yankees this season and I don't think many can argue that.

Leave your thoughts and comments in the comments section.

13 comments:

  1. Good article but you I don't see anything in there about lack of going deep into the games, or not having a high K count for a 102 MPH fastball as was noted the other day, or the fact that he gives up way too many hits. See Burch we both can spin it anyway we want, and to me he is the water pistol and not worthy of 13 wins this year. My wanting you to do the unbiased comparison is that as you pointed out Harvey should never be compared to the Water Pistol. My comparison of the two was to point out that without the run support the Water Pistol wouldn't be close to double digit wins and the Dark Knight with the run support the pistol gets would have the double digit wins. As I said once and I will say it again, I have seen the one year wonders Burch as have you so before you our anyone else named Little P anoints him as the next Cy Young lets just see how this plays out. I am confident that my assessment will be vindicated once its all said and done.

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    1. You know as well as I do he needs to go later into games, didn't think it needed to be said. Harvey has 18 more IP in one less start, I get it. FIP is FIP though and FYI FIP takes into account innings pitched.

      The formula is (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run average.

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    2. I just think like Levin said that his stats are comparable to CC and we want to lynch his ass and send him packing. Stats are good and I am a firm believer in them. Let's look at his K stats and his innings pitched and his hits given up per inning. Those are important stats as well. If he is my number five I can live with him, but to me the most consistent starter is in the pen. Warren gives you a chance to win. Eovaldi melts down more times than not once the 5th inning hits. The other day he is cruising with no runs given up and I look at the pitch count and he has 90 plus pitches into the 6th...come on now!!

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    3. We can all cherry pick stats that is why below I chose seven pretty prominent stats. CC K's more batters and the hits per nine are close but Evo has the edge in H/9.

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  2. Initially, I was an Eovaldi supporter, and then I saw him pitch. I understand that he is a work in progress, but I tend to agree with Hans. Maybe not as strongly, but he's right. Compare Eovaldi's stats and they are very comparable to CC's stats. Outside of the homeruns. We all want CC out of the rotation. Why does everybody think Eovaldi is so great? He is only 25, so I'll give you guys that, but as of right now, he's just lucky.

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    1. You're both entitled to your opinion and I respect both of your opinions just as much as I do anyone who agrees with me. Just pointing out the stat that Eovaldi has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. I'm a big stat and saber guy, can't help it.

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    2. And FYI

      Eov-alving has CC beat in ERA, IP, hits allowed, ERA+, FIP, HR/9 and a slew of other stats including WAR,. I don't see how you see the two as comparable Mr. Levin

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    3. Hold on there Sparky. Let's look at the stats of the two. I'm still with Levin on this

      First the WP has started one more game than CC at 24 starts. CC in one less game has 12 more K's for a guy who's finished. Yes a 300 pound 90-93 MPH pitcher in one less start has 112 K's to a guy who tops out at 102 the other day.

      Complete games this year. Water Pistol 0 and CC 1

      ERA you are correct Burch CC at 5.24 and WP at 4.24

      Walks. CC has 32 and WP has 40.

      Innings pitched CC again has one less start, yet the innings are almost identical CC has 135.2 and WP has 136

      CC has a lower WHIP at 142 and WP at 146

      BA against CC is 296 and the WP is 290

      So I think you need to go back and check your stats because I just pulled this off Yahoo Sports stats.

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  3. I did mention we can pick our different stats and tell a different story, no need to check my stats. If I was comparing any two pitchers, Yankees or not, my personal go-to stats and the stats that are thought of highly in the sabermetric department are FIP, WHIP, ERA+ and WAR.

    Walks are factored into WHIP, I've never said anything other than EOVALDI NEEDS TO GO DEEPER INTO GAMES, ETC. We just factor in different stats when evaluating a player and that is okay.

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  4. You're absolutely right about cherry picking stats. That's why Hans and I can agree on Eovaldi and disagree on Gardner. Essentially, it comes down to opinion. I don't think he's as bad as Hans does. But I also don't think he's even one of our five best pitchers. Let alone little p anointing him the next Nolan Ryan!

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    1. By the way Levin have you see your boy Gardner's stats lately...good but not like it was before all-star break

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    2. Everybody goes through a rough stretch from time to time buddy. Let's just hope he gets hot again come October.

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  5. I don't think there is ever going to be another Ryan, the game has changed too much! He and Gibson could get away with brushing back a hitter, now days they all dive into pitches which would mean they would get a high hard one inside...but not anymore! Besides, they both had better second and third pitches than most of the hard throwers have now and most fans think it was only, speed, that made them very good. They were also tough and would do whatever it took to win.

    As for Evo becoming a #1 or #2 type pitcher, who knows? He has the start of becoming much better than he has been that is for sure. It depends on him, and how hard he will work to become a better pitcher. And just for you fans edification, the Avg innings pitched for starters is less than 7 innings. So, going from 5.5(?) innings a game to 6.5(?) isn't going to be that big a deal.

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)