Monday, January 4, 2016

Most Popular Article of the Week: Analyzing The Aroldis Chapman Trade

Bryan Van Dusen Analyzes the Aroldis Chapman Trade HERE:

When I started writing this I wanted to talk about the reports of Aroldis Chapman choking his girlfriend and pushing her into a wall. Not to mention shooting his gun eight times in his garage afterwards. I wanted to say that what happened doesn't make Aroldis into a horrible person, who shall be shunned forever. Good people are capable of doing horrible things. But it's impossible to put my thoughts into words when I really don't know what to think about the whole thing.

So... yeah...

Major League Baseball is investigating the incident, and Rob Manfred will make a decision on a possible suspension, fine, or whatever. And I believe Brian Cashman didn't just say "meh, whatever" and trade for Chapman. The New York Yankees are one of the most well-known sports entities in the World, and to believe Cashman doesn't know that and is willing to harm their "good" name is ridiculous.

So I'm going to stop there when it comes to the off the field stuff. And when looking beyond the off the field stuff this trade is a total steal.

According to Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect list, none of the prospects traded to Cincinnati are in the Top 5. Rookie Davis is actually the #6 prospect in the organization, But Davis has only thrown 33.1 innings above A-ball, and I wouldn't say he "killed it" in his short time at AA Trenton (he went 2-1 in five starts, with an ERA of 4.32).

I wasn't happy to see Eric Jagielo included in the trade, but I'm certainly not heartbroken over his loss. Jagielo is a third baseman, who some think is destined for first base, and corner infielders aren't that difficult to replace. Plus there's the fact that Miguel Andujar, who is a better fielder and finished strong at high A Tampa last season, could be a future third baseman. Meanwhile, Greg Bird looks to be the Yankees' first baseman of the future.

"Yep. I'm the man."

Caleb Cotham is the third prospect that the Yankee sent to the Reds. Cotham threw 9.2 innings for the Yankees this season, giving up 7 runs and 14 hits (four of which were home runs). Caleb could have possibly been a part of the Yanks bullpen in the future, but I don't think it would be a significant part at all.

The last part of the trade was Tony Renda, who the Yankees acquired when they traded David Carpenter to the Washington Nationals. Mind you, Carpenter had been designated for assignment, so Renda wasn't looked at as much more than minor league filler. Renda hit .269/.330/.358 in AA last season, and I have yet to hear anybody saying anything along the lines of "he'll be missed".

Now, I don't have to tell you what Aroldis Chapman can do for the Yankees. I begged for the Yankees to re-sign David Robertson, so that they could deploy the three-headed monster out of the bullpen. Unfortunately that didn't happen, but almost a year later Brian Cashman came through for me. Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Miller will scare the bejesus out of any and all Yankees opponents next season. If the Yankees have a two run lead going into the 7th inning you may as well say "game over". Heck, even having a one run lead will be pretty darn good.

But will the Yankee starters be able to hand a lead over to the killer threesome?

Although Masahiro Tanaka was the only starter to average at least six innings per start, I'm confident that Michael Pineda will have a better season than last knowing that his shoulder can hold up over an entire season.

Luis Severino is looking at pitching only around 150 innings, so he won't be totally let loose next year. But for the most part the team can count on him to hand over a lead to the three-headed monster.

Nathan Eovaldi averaged 5.7 innings a start in 2015, so I can see the bullpen needing a couple more outs from the bullpen when he starts. Chapman threw more than an inning four times last season (twice in the last month), Miller threw more than one inning eight times, and of course we all know Betances is capable of giving the team more than an inning at a time.

And then there's CC Sabathia. Daniel recently posted about Sabathia, and reasons to be optimistic about him next season, so I'll just direct you over there. If that's too much for you, let's say that he could be a fine starter next season, and hand over plenty of leads to the three-headed monster next season.

"I think you're a little too trusting."

When speaking of Nathan Eovaldi I mentioned that Dellin Betances is well-known for throwing more than one inning, which led to him throwing a ton of innings the previous two years. Many people rightfully see that as a problem, especially after seeing Dellin's effectiveness go down towards the end of last season. With Aroldis on board, chances are Dellin will not be leaned on nearly as much to giving the team more than an inning at a time.

It would be nice if Cashman could acquire a better starter, but I have a feeling it won't happen. I hope to be proven wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time, but after talking about those five above I just don't see a strong enough need to pay the price that a young/good starter would cost.

In fact, I'm not holding my breath for anything else "big" to happen this offseason. There are a few teams out there that would probably love to have Brett Gardner, but it doesn't seem like Cashman really wants to deal away Brett, and I don't see any team offering enough for acquire him.

It would be a shame if this was the last "big" thing to happen, but as things stand right now I kind of like this team's chances of making a run next year.

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)