Throughout all the letdowns and bad stretches this season, I've always been one to keep alive the idea that the Yankees will still make the playoffs.
Yes, at times lately doing so seems pretty dumb, but when it comes down to simple probability it really isn't.
In this post, I won't defend the Yankees' bad year, but I will give you four reasons why they will probably still get to the one-game playoff. None of them are guarantees, obviously, but as I'll say over-and-over again they are in fact likely.
1. The Tigers will likely win 18 of their last 27:
Upcoming Schedule: 1 at White Sox, 4 at Indians, 3 vs. Giants, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Indians, 3 at Twins, 3 at Royals, 3 vs White Sox, 4 vs. Twins
Big Series: The ones against the Royals
How they can do it: Win today, split in Cleveland, beat Giants 2/3, beat Royals 2/3, beat Indians 2/3, beat Twins 2/3, win 2/3 in KC, beat White Sox 2/3, beat Twins 3/4
Question Marks: Winning 2/3 at Kauffman won't be easy, but considering the Royals have struggled at home over the last week I'd say it's definitely doable.
2. The Royals will likely lose 14 of their last 27:
Upcoming Schedule: 1 vs. Indians, 3 vs. Rangers, 3 at Yankees, 3 at Tigers, 4 vs. Red Sox, 3 vs. White Sox, 3 vs. Tigers, 3 at Indians, 4 at White Sox
Big Series: Tigers ones, Indians ones
How they can do it: Win today, lose 1/3 to Rangers, lose 2/3 to Yankees, lose 2/3 to Tigers, split with Red Sox, lose 1/3 to White Sox, lose 2/3 to Indians, split with White Sox
Question Marks: The Red Sox are a team with a lot of offense, but will their pitching be good enough to take 2/4? Same goes for the Indians and White Sox in their turns.
3. The Mariners will likely lose 14 of their last 28:
Upcoming Schedule: 1 vs. Nationals, 3 at A's, 4 at Rangers, 3 vs. Astros, 3 vs. A's, 4 at Angels, 3 at Astros, 4 at Blue Jays, 3 vs. Angels
Big Series: Divisional ones
How they can do it: win today, lose 2/3 to A's, split with Rangers, beat Astros 2/3, lose 2/3 to A's, split with Angels, beat Astros 2/3, split with Blue Jays, lose 2/3 to Angels
Question Marks: The Blue Jays contributing could be tough, but they're good at home, right?
4. The Yankees will likely win 17 of their last 28:
Upcoming Schedule: 1 at Blue Jays, 3 vs. Red Sox, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Rays, 4 at Orioles, 3 at Rays, 4 vs. Blue Jays, 4 vs. Orioles, 3 at Red Sox
Big Series: Royals, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays
How they can do it: win today, beat Red Sox 2/3, beat Royals 2/3, beat Rays 2/3, split with Orioles, beat Rays 2/3, split with Blue Jays, split with Orioles, beat Red Sox 2/3
Question Marks: How good are the Rays really? Are the Orioles dominant enough at home to take 3/4?
So yeah, that's my argument. If it comes to fruition the Yankees will take the second wild card spot and the Tigers the AL Central. Please leave your comments below on how accurate you think it is.
