ICYMI: The Huge One-Year Deal for Justin Upton That Needs to Happen ASAP

The New York Yankees have been hiding in the dark corners and murky alley's all offseason long while they do their work in relative secret and with stealth. No one saw the Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy trade coming and no one saw the Jose Pirela for Ronald Herrera trade with the San Diego Padres coming either. The Starlin Castro trade was mentioned in passing, although nothing was considered to be close, while the Yankees absolutely shocked the world with the Aroldis Chapman trade. Brian Cashman earned the name Ninja Cashman because many of his deals come together without you reading about it on MLB Trade Rumors for six weeks in advance and Cashman should be thinking about landing his next target, Justin Upton.

Upton is attached to a draft pick after declining a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres this offseason and the Yankees should do whatever they can to hold onto that pick, unless it's worth it. Who is worth it? Jason Heyward was, David Price was too and Justin Upton likely is too. Upton is so unbelievably underrated it's not even funny. Upton is just 28-years old and is coming off a 26 home run season in 2015 while playing half his games in the MLB equivalent of Yellowstone Park, Petco. Upton is a former first overall pick, ahead of Alex Gordon, and he actually has the best WRC+ over the last three years. Upton has a higher WRC+ than Jason Heyward did, than Yoenis Cespedes has and more so than Alex Gordon as well. Upton steals bases, 113 stolen bases in the last eight season, he's durable, he's played in at least 149 games in each of the last five seasons, and he's great defensively, he's finished third in the NL Gold Glove race in each of the last two seasons.


The market for Upton has been remarkably quiet, this should give the Yankees the opportunity to pounce. This free agent market is absolutely stacked and the next two offseason's are pretty thin following this season, Upton and the Yankees can take advantage of this. New York should offer Upton a one-year deal, maybe even add a player option or second year to the deal, and give him an incredible AAV. Pay the man $30 million for one season or $25 million for each of the next two season's, who cares? The plan is to wait until after the 2017 season to get under the luxury tax anyway and this makes the team exponentially better with another right-handed power bat being added to a thin lineup.

Upton can take advantage of a weak free agent market in a season or two as the top free agent and the Yankees can get his best seasons on a small risk. It makes sense, but will it happen?

Free Agent Market Quickly Becoming too Rich for My Blood

Remember a week or two back when we were all complaining about how slow the MLB free agency market was moving? Well yeah, I almost miss those days now. As a Yankees fan I guess it shouldn’t bother me either way, Brian Cashman has already said the team would stay out of the free agent pool and would rather stick to the trade market instead, but as a Yankees fan I also struggle to take the Yankees GM at his word sometimes. Part of me wants to see Cashman’s plan, or “plan” because who knows the truth besides him, all the way to fruition and another part of me wants to see a big free agent splash like Justin Upton or Wei-Yin Chen. After a slew of signings around the time the 2016 Hall of Fame class were announced though I may be singing an entirely different tune.

Irony aside, as the owner of a blog called the GREEDY Pinstripes, this free agent market is quickly becoming too rich for my blood. There are three signings in particular that kind of made me shake my head and wonder what in the wild, wild world of sports is going on here? First Alex Gordon returned to the defending World Series Champion Kansas City Royals for basically $18 million a season (yes I know some of the payments are deferred and the deal is a bit front-loaded but the AAV remains the same) before Neftali Feliz signed a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates for $3.9 million. Finally Chris Davis, all 200+ strikeouts a season and 50 home run power of him, turned down $154 million on the free agency market. Seriously.

We’ll start with the big fish, Gordon. Gordon is not a huge power guy and is instead an average hitter with pop and great defense in left field. He has been one of the best, if not the best, left fielder in all of the game for many years now but is he really worth $18 million a season? According to the VALUE stat on Fangraphs.com he was worth $22.3 million in 2015 and $49.9 million in 2014 leading his team to the World Series. Obviously those numbers are skewed by his defensive metrics but still, I'm not buying it personally. He is a great fit for the team the Royals have built specifically but if I was the Yankees organization I couldn't bring myself to give Gordon $18 million annually no matter how good defensively he is. 

We’ll continue with Feliz who just a month or two back was thought to be waiting on a minor league deal with incentives for the 2016 season. Here we stand today in mid-January and he signs a deal with the Pirates for $3.9 million guaranteed. Say what? Isn’t this the same guy that posted a 6.38 ERA in 2015 and a 1.99 ERA in just 30 games 2014 while his Fangraphs VALUE was $3.0 million and -$1.6 million in those same years respectively.

Finally, Chris Davis and the mountain of money he turned down already from the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles left a $154 million deal on the table that is either still on the table or has since been retracted depending on who you ask. Davis is a rare commodity these days that can give a team 50 home runs a season and a .250 batting average or less. Is that worth $154 million? Well that depends on the length of the deal, and I presume it would be 7-8 years in length, and the makeup of your team. In a world where Jason Heyward is getting over $200 million for defense and sabermetrics Davis is absolutely worth $154 million or more. You can’t win games when you don’t score making your defense a moot point. I just don’t feel like I would be comfortable with the Yankees giving him that kind of commitment for those sorts of stats. That’s my personal beliefs and they get more severe the closer to $200 million that potential deal gets.

And speaking of strikeouts don’t even get me started on what the Milwaukee Brewers just gave Chris Carter after the guy was designated for assignment and left out on the free agency market for two months. All strikeouts and power, no average and no defense is not worth $2.5 million. Sorry, it’s not.

So in closing it looks like once again Brian Cashman knew what he was doing all along in tackling the trade market early and often. He won’t get the credit for knowing what he is doing, goodness no, except for here on TGP but that’s ok. I don’t think he needs nor wants your approval anyway. 

The Huge One-Year Deal for Justin Upton That Needs to Happen ASAP

The New York Yankees have been hiding in the dark corners and murky alley's all offseason long while they do their work in relative secret and with stealth. No one saw the Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy trade coming and no one saw the Jose Pirela for Ronald Herrera trade with the San Diego Padres coming either. The Starlin Castro trade was mentioned in passing, although nothing was considered to be close, while the Yankees absolutely shocked the world with the Aroldis Chapman trade. Brian Cashman earned the name Ninja Cashman because many of his deals come together without you reading about it on MLB Trade Rumors for six weeks in advance and Cashman should be thinking about landing his next target, Justin Upton.

Upton is attached to a draft pick after declining a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres this offseason and the Yankees should do whatever they can to hold onto that pick, unless it's worth it. Who is worth it? Jason Heyward was, David Price was too and Justin Upton likely is too. Upton is so unbelievably underrated it's not even funny. Upton is just 28-years old and is coming off a 26 home run season in 2015 while playing half his games in the MLB equivalent of Yellowstone Park, Petco. Upton is a former first overall pick, ahead of Alex Gordon, and he actually has the best WRC+ over the last three years. Upton has a higher WRC+ than Jason Heyward did, than Yoenis Cespedes has and more so than Alex Gordon as well. Upton steals bases, 113 stolen bases in the last eight season, he's durable, he's played in at least 149 games in each of the last five seasons, and he's great defensively, he's finished third in the NL Gold Glove race in each of the last two seasons.


The market for Upton has been remarkably quiet, this should give the Yankees the opportunity to pounce. This free agent market is absolutely stacked and the next two offseason's are pretty thin following this season, Upton and the Yankees can take advantage of this. New York should offer Upton a one-year deal, maybe even add a player option or second year to the deal, and give him an incredible AAV. Pay the man $30 million for one season or $25 million for each of the next two season's, who cares? The plan is to wait until after the 2017 season to get under the luxury tax anyway and this makes the team exponentially better with another right-handed power bat being added to a thin lineup.

Upton can take advantage of a weak free agent market in a season or two as the top free agent and the Yankees can get his best seasons on a small risk. It makes sense, but will it happen?

Best of What's Left on the Free Agency Market

The big names and the huge checks are being written this winter and the run on the second tier players is probably going to begin soon. Who is the best of what's left on the free agency market at every position?

C: Hector Sanchez
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Howie Kendrick
SS: Ian Desmond
3B: Daniel Murphy
OF: Dexter Fowler
OF: Alex Gordon
OF: Yoenis Cespedes
DH: Justin Upton

SP: Kenta Maeda
SP: Mike Leake
SP: Wei-Yin Chen
SP: Scott Kazmir

CP: Tyler Clippard
RP: Antonio Bastardo
RP: Fernando Rodney
RP: Ryan Cook

Taking a Stab at Predicting the Top 40 Free Agent Signings

As many of you know I like to take a stab at predicting free agency signings every single offseason. Usually I do the entire 155 or so player free agent class but it becomes pretty redundant to be honest. There are players on the list very few have even heard of and players that even fewer fans truly even care about. For that reason I think I will stick to the Top 40 free agents this year and predict where I think these free agents will land before Opening Day 2016. If you agree, or disagree for that matter, leave your comments below in the comments section. Thank you!

David Price – Chicago Cubs
Jason Heyward – Detroit Tigers
Zack Greinke – Los Angeles Dodgers
Justin Upton – San Francisco Giants
Chris Davis – Washington Nationals
Jordan Zimmermann – Boston Red Sox
Yoenis Cespedes – Chicago White Sox
Alex Gordon – Seattle Mariners
Johnny Cueto – Toronto Blue Jays
Jeff Samardzija – New York Yankees
Ian Desmond – New York Mets
Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles
Mike Leake – Arizona Diamondbacks
Ben Zobrist – Kansas City Royals
Daniel Murphy – Colorado Rockies
Yovani Gallardo – Texas Rangers
Wei-Yin Chen – Boston Red Sox
Howie Kendrick – Chicago White Sox
Dexter Fowler – New York Mets
Scott Kazmir – Los Angeles Dodgers
Hisashi iwakuma – Seattle Mariners
Colby Rasmus – Houston Astros
Denard Span – Chicago Cubs
David Freese – Atlanta Braves
Marco Estrada – Toronto Blue Jays
Ian Kennedy – Baltimore Orioles
Darren O’Day – New York Yankees
Brett Anderson – Los Angeles Dodgers
Joakim Soria – Boston Red Sox
Gerardo Parra – St. Louis Cardinals
John Lackey – Los Angeles Dodgers
JA Happ – Kansas City Royals
Austin Jackson – Cincinnati Reds
Asdrubal Cabrera – New York Mets
Tyler Clippard – Arizona Diamondbacks
Doug Fister – Houston Astros
Ryan Madson – Houston Astros
Alexei Ramirez – Minnesota Twins
Mike Napoli – Colorado Rockies
Steve Pearce – New York Yankees

Deciphering & Predicting the MLB Qualifying Offers

SD - Ian Kennedy

Kennedy is no longer the 20 game winner he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks but he's a good enough pitcher to decline the is qualifying offer and not think twice about it. Kennedy, the former Yankees prospect, will not regret it either. 

SD - Justin Upton

Upton fits the same mold as Kennedy in my opinion. He isn't a 30 home run threat anymore but he's an essential lock for 20-25 home runs and 100 RBI in the right lineup. Upton is on the right side of 30-years old and will likely receive the biggest contract of his career to date this offseason. That all starts with the decline of the qualifying offer. 

TEX - Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo fits the borderline mold of accepting or declining the qualifying offer, although I'm leaning towards him declining. Gallardo isn't an ace but he is an essential lock for 180+ innings and at least a 2.0+ WAR. That's not one-year deal material, he declines ultimately. 

SEA - Hisashi Iwakuma

Iwakuma actually wants to stay in Seattle, reportedly, or at least on the West Coast as close to his home land of Japan as possible. At 34-years old, 35-years old shortly after the 2016 season begins, Iwakuma may opt to take the almost double amount of salary on a one-year deal to stick in Seattle and close to home. ACCEPT. 

WAS - Ian Desmond

Desmond struggled for much of the 2015 season but he has the ability to be a plus offensive weapon at shortstop, traditionally an offensive anemic position. Desmond will reject the offer and some team will give Desmond a good contract, either as a shortstop or a second baseman. 

WAS - Jordan Zimmermann

Zimmermann is likely the best pitcher on the market, he denies it and cashes in huge. 

TOR – Marco Estrada

Estrada had a breakout season in 2015 and seems unlikely to accept a contract offer. Truth be told I’m not sure if anyone expects Estrada to replicate his 2015 season in 2016 and beyond, looking at his stat page it looks to be more of the exception than the rule, but there will be a few teams willing to go three years or longer on him leaving the decision to decline the offer an easy one to make.

CHW – Jeff Samardzija

Samardzija will most definitely decline the offer. When teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox desperately need top of the rotation type pitchers and are willing to bank on his live arm while ignoring the stats you will sign more than one year and $15.8 million.

KC – Alex Gordon

Alex is fresh off a World Series victory and is coming from a team where he could boast that he was one of the main and better offensive contributors on the team. Gordon, along with Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, led the Royals offense to two consecutive World Series trips and to one World Series title making his decision to decline the offer an obvious one in my opinion.

STL – Jayson Heyward

Heyward is potentially looking at 10-years and $200 million or more. He’s the most obvious player to decline the offer in my opinion.

STL – John Lackey

Lackey is a man of his word and pitched without making trouble for only $500K this season with the St. Louis Cardinals. The raise from $500K to $15.8 million is a substantial one and I think it is one that Lackey will make when he is the first ever to accept a qualifying offer.

CHC- Dexter Fowler

This one I am truly on the fence about. I want to say that Fowler declines the offer but a part of me, maybe a gut feeling, believes he accepts the offer. The other 29 teams won’t be exactly beating down his door to sign him, not that he’s a bad player by any means, especially at an AAV approaching $16 million. Am I allowed to call for a push?

NYM- Daniel Murphy

Murphy went from the goat of the New York Mets to the G.O.A.T of the Mets in about eight at bats this postseason. He’s declining that offer and some sucker will sign him expecting similar results, look at the regular season and postseason splits for Pablo Sandoval and look at the contract the Boston Red Sox gave him. He declines.

BAL – Matt Wieters

Wieters is an interesting case. Wieters missed a significant chunk of time in 2014 and 2015 after having Tommy John surgery and never truly recovered from it in my opinion. His defense and specifically his ability to limit would-be base stealers has decreased along with his offensive production. About the only thing working in Wieters favor though is the fact that the catching position is basically anemic offensively across the league with a few obvious exceptions. Wieters will likely decline the offer and will likely land a modest deal in the neighborhood of three years but one thing we know for 100% fact, Wieters will not go to the New York Yankees as Buck Showalter predicted. I just love bringing up instances of Showalter being wrong, don’t mind me.

BAL – Chris Davis

Chris Davis led the world in home runs in 2015 putting to sleep all the rumors, allegations and questions regarding his power and output after being suspended for illegal drug use in 2014. Davis was suspended for Adderall use in 2014 and responded in a big way in 2015. No way he accepts it, Davis is going to get paid for every single one of those home runs he hit this season and then some.

BAL – Wei-Yin Chen

Chen is not an ace. Chen is left-handed and likely a middle-of-the-rotation type starter for most American League teams. The thing working in Chen’s favor though is that he’s been the ace for the Baltimore Orioles for two seasons now and is American League East and postseason tested. That alone will net him more than one year and $15.8 million. He’ll likely get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-years and $85 million in my opinion so he will decline.

HOU- Colby Rasmus

When I predicted the qualifying offers on the blog before the season officially ended one of my Twitter followers actually called me an idiot for saying that Rasmus would get one. He didn’t use those exact words, and I’m not going to quote it because they don’t deserve the attention for being a douche bag but I didn’t delete the tweet so it’s out there somewhere if you want to look hard enough, but it was something along the lines of “only an idiot would think Rasmus deserves a qualifying offer.” Well there’s at least two idiots in the world, me and the owner of the Astros. Rasmus would be an idiot to decline it, but he’s an idiot and will (he’s not an idiot, I was being tongue in cheek to stick with the “idiot” theme).

LAD – Zack Greinke

So let me get this straight, he opts out of his deal worth three years and $71 million to accept a qualifying offer? No one really thought that, did they? He declines and receives a Clayton Kershaw-esque deal. Just not from the Yankees.

LAD – Howie Kendrick

Kendrick plays a position that is dryer than the Nevada desert in the middle of the day in July offensively. Kendrick, as far as this free agent class goes anyway, is the Babe Ruth of second baseman so there is no way he accepts the qualifying offer. No way.

LAD- Brett Anderson

Another one I caught flak about when I predicted him receiving a qualifying offer and another one notched in the victory belt for the Greedy Pinstripes. Anderson has a live arm, he always has, and finally put it all together on the mound and in the training room. Anderson will try and bank on the fact, literally, that he had a contract season and he absolutely should. Anderson declines and some team, maybe even the Dodgers, signs him to a longer term deal around three years or so. 

FYI: Qualifying Offer Set at $15.8 Million for 2016

From MLB Trade Rumors:



The 2015-16 free agent season’s qualifying offer value has been set at $15.8MM, according to a tweet from Eric Fisher of the Sports Business Journal. That represents an increase, of course, but the rise isn’t nearly as great as it has been in the past.

The QO system used a $13.3MM number in its first year, which increased to $14.1MM and then to $15.3MM last fall. The qualifying offer value is determined by averaging the 125 contracts leaguewide that have the highest average annual values.

Here’s a quick refresher on how the qualifying offer system works: Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.

There are plenty of other elements of the system, of course, and you can check out thisold-but-good overview for more. For an understanding of why the qualifying offer matters so much, read this great explanation of why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.

Players traded in mid-season are not eligible to receive a qualifying offer. So, for example, the Royals can make a qualifying offer to Alex Gordon but cannot extend one to Johnny Cueto or Ben Zobrist.

And remember: we still have yet to see a player accept a qualifying offer. While several QO-declining players have seemingly experienced market impacts after being saddled with draft compensation, the opportunity to test the open market in search of a multi-year pact has thus far proved compelling.

Recap: Yankees 6, A's 2

Masahiro Tanaka tossed 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball and the Yankees cruised past the A's, 6-2, in a Thursday matinee at Yankee Stadium.

Just Like the Old Days: Tanaka logged arguably his best outing of the season in this one, holding Oakland to just one earned run and two hits while walking one and striking out six. He ran into some trouble in the second -- the A's scored twice on RBI doubles by Billy Butler and Mark Canha -- but it ultimately proved to be nothing as the veteran recorded the win.

His Knee Must Be Healed: Batting with two men in scoring position and one out in the fourth, Jacoby Ellsbury delivered probably the biggest hit of the game -- a clutch two-run single off Jesse Chavez to break a 2-2 tie. Ellsbury, activated off the DL on Wednesday, was able to lace one just fair down the right-field line to give the Yankees the lead -- the ball barely clipping the corner of first base as it flew by in mid-air. 

An All-Star Selection and a Home Run: If his first-inning home run and two subsequent singles didn't already make him happy, Brett Gardner can at least take solace knowing he's now on the 2015 AL All-Star team -- an announcement made on the stadium jumbotron between the fourth and fifth. Gardner will fill the spot previously occupied by the Royals' Alex Gordon, who will miss the event due to a recent injury.

Staying Hot: Mark Teixeira continued his great week with an RBI single in the third, a liner on a 2-2 sinker that plated the aforementioned Ellsbury. It was Teixeira's eighth ribbie of the homestand and third of the series, bringing his total on the year to 62.

A Good First Impression: Making his major league debut following a few months with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Cole Figueroa went 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles -- the latter of which likely would've driven in a run had it not bounced into the stands. Figueroa is expected to be one of the Yankees' backup infielders for the time being, joining Gregorio Petit as a defender capable of playing second, short and third.

Next Up: The Yankees will look to keep their momentum going on Friday when they visit the Red Sox for a weekend at Fenway -- beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET and airing live on MLB Network. Michael Pineda (8-5, 3.79 ERA) will get the nod for the Yankees hoping for a third straight quality start, facing surging Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz (7-6, 3.27 ERA).

Yankees' Offense Gets Shutout Again in Finale Loss to Royals

Shane Greene surrendered no earned runs in five innings and the bullpen followed him by getting the last twelve outs, but since the offense continued to not do anything the Yankees embarrassingly lost to the Royals today, 2-0, in the rubber game at Yankee Stadium.

Because this contest happened on Derek Jeter day, logically, it was expected the Yanks would put up a solid fight, the least they could do to honor the legend's career.

Nonetheless, for the second time in three days their bats couldn't cross home, a fact only made worse by their recurring defensive struggles.

To start off the day of frustration, the aforementioned Greene side-armed a Nori Aoki grounder into right field with two on and two out in the top of the second, bringing Josh Willingham home to give Kansas City an early lead.

Then in the third, following a drop of a routine flyball by Carlos Beltran and a steal, KC circled the bases again to double their advantage, scoring when Eric Hosmer blooped one into shallow right field to drive in Alex Gordon.

On that play, interestingly, Gordon actually stumbled while rounding third, but since Brian McCann failed to realize his doing so the star third basemen did get in easily, a misfortune that summed up the Yankees' day pretty well.

Bats Come to Life in 6-2 Win Over Royals

Brandon McCarthy tossed 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball and five different batters drove in runs today as the Yankees bounced back perfectly from last night's 1-0 flop with a 6-2 win over the Royals.

For McCarthy, the W was his first since August 21, when he shutout the Astros to avoid a series sweep. Unfortunately, this afternoon's outing wasn't nearly as good as that one, although it was still definitely likable, with McCarthy only surrendering six hits in it while also striking out four.

Needless to say, his putting up of those numbers empowered the offense.

After KC starter Danny Duffy left after throwing one pitch with a shoulder injury in the bottom of the first, the Yankees took an early lead off reliever Liam Hendriks (4 IP, 3 ER), crossing home standing when Martin Prado doubled and Mark Teixeira got him in with a single.

Then in the third, following an Alex Gordon RBI that made it 1-1, the Yanks' bats continued to rake against Hendriks, circling the bases twice more when John Ryan Murphy led off with a flyball off the wall, Jacoby Ellsbury tripled, and Derek Jeter flew out to center. 

No, the contest wasn't over at that point, but once a Salvador Perez error and a couple more run-scoring knocks by Carlos Beltran and Ichiro Suzuki brought things to 6-1 in the next two frames it definitely was going in New York's favor, the third time that's happened in the last four days.

All Star Game Snubs: New York Yankees Edition

Every single season we have All Star Game snubs and we have fans that think their guy should be on the squad over this guy or that guy. I'm here to tell you that this is probably going to be another one of those posts but not without merit and stats to back me up. Brett Gardner should be on the American League All Star squad if the likes of Alex Gordon are. Yoenis Cespedes is not having a great season either, although he is helped by the "sexy numbers" of home runs, RBI's, etc.

Gardner has a higher batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, stolen base total, hit total, runs scored total, less errors, and a better fielding percentage than Gordon. On top of that Gardner has comparable WAR, home run, and RBI totals to Gordon.

Greg Holland is already on the club representing Kansas City so it's not like they had to choose Gordon and they both bat left handed so that is not the issue either. The Yankees only sent three to the game and Masahiro Tanaka will be ineligible due to pitching on the last day before the All Star Break anyway so the team is not flooded with Yankees like it is with six Oakland Athletics.

Red Sox manager John Farrell really dropped the ball on this one. It's a good thing this game doesn't count for anything, oh wait...