Trevor Story > DJ LeMahieu in Pinstripes? Maybe - My Offseason Plan

 

I haven’t added anything to the blog lately, so let’s come out with the smoke. If the Yankees were to acquire Trevor Story from the Colorado Rockies in a trade this off-season he will be better in pinstripes than DJ LeMahieu was. There, I said it.

 

Now that we got that out of the way, let’s analyze. The New York Yankees acquired DJ off the free agent market two seasons ago with the hopes of the right-hander filling in as a super utility player for the Yankees in the infield. No one, except me, expected LeMahieu to break out in the way he did in 2019, and again in 2020, and most of the people who saw this headline probably never even made it this far into the article. I’m not worried about if people agree with me or not, most didn’t when I said that Kyle Higashioka not only should, but would, become Gerrit Cole’s personal catcher and I was okay with that too. It’s not even about being right, it’s about what is best for the team. Adding Trevor Story makes this team better, with or without DJ. Keep reading, please.

 

Like I said two years ago with LeMahieu, Story would benefit immensely from making the shift from the NL West to the AL East Division. Now, before we get too upset again, I will admit that Story most definitely benefitted from playing inside Coors Field, like most who have ever played there, but Coors Field did not make Story the exciting player that he is today. His splits will tell you that he does better as a home player versus what he does as a member of the road team, but what it doesn’t tell you is that there are a lot of factors that just don’t get included in those splits posted above. What those splits don’t tell you is how Story potentially was hurt, production wise, by playing inside parks like Petco Park in San Diego, AT&T Park in San Francisco, etc. It also doesn’t show you how Story would actually benefit from not playing 10-15 times in each of those stadiums, while shifting those away games to more hitter friendly environments like Boston’s Fenway Park, Baltimore’s Oriole Park in Camden Yards, the Rogers Centre (or the Stadium up in Buffalo, NY) in Toronto, and Tropicana Field down in Tampa.

 

Dimensions, level of talent on each side (imagine having to play the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers 30 times a season versus playing the Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays and Rays), and the team around him are all kept out of the splits that we see on Baseball Reference.

 

Coors Field dimensions

Instead of focusing too much on what Story could potentially do as a road player for the Yankees inside these stadiums, I prefer to focus on what he could do inside Yankee Stadium. If Story craps the bed in the Bronx, it probably doesn’t matter as much what he does against everyone else. Agree? While it is hard to predict what he will do, his spray charts mixed with the overall dimensions of Coors Field vs. Yankee Stadium make it a little easier.

 

Story, like DJ, sprays the ball all over the field for average and for power. Story, like DJ, would wreak havoc on the short porch in right field given his tendencies to go the other way for power. Story, like DJ, was actually hurt by this while playing in a much more spacious Coors Field. The ball carries more in Coors Field than possibly anywhere else, but it really carries down that right field line in the Bronx as well. Story, like DJ, will benefit much more in the Bronx than he did in Colorado because a lot of those line outs and fly outs will turn into doubles, home runs and scoring opportunities in the Bronx (in a perfect world). Story would give the Yankees another “professional hitter” on the club, although his strikeout numbers are his biggest flaw in my opinion, while also giving the team something they need possibly more so than hitting, and that is defense. Specifically, defense at the shortstop position.

 

Acquiring Story allows the Yankees to move Gleyber Torres back to the position he is better suited for defensively, the second base position, while allowing Story to slide into the shortstop position. The infield defense is instantly better, but does this mean that this would leave DJ on the outside looking in for the 2021 season? Not necessarily, this is where the “Get Greedy” part comes out of me. In my plan, you acquire Story to allow him to play short and you move Gleyber back to second, but you also sign DJ with the intention of being an “every day” first baseman. Yes, he would move around and wouldn’t be containted to only first base, but that would be his position on Opening Day. What does that mean for Luke Voit? Well, listen, I love Voit as much as the next guy, but if the Yankees are looking to trade away from their core in order to keep costs down and fill the gaps needed on the field, he makes the most sense to move on from. Why? Because he has tremendous value right now, his defense at first base is atrocious, and if the Yankees have to choose one strength to trade from it should be from the power department and not from the average-first/professional-type hitters. If the Yankees trade Voit they could still hit 270-280 home runs this season, maybe more with Story if he has a big season, but the team would be more balanced, better defensively, and better overall.

 

Having an infield defense of Gio Urshela, Story, Torres and DJ behind a pitcher like Luis Castillo or equivalent (Voit included in the trade to keep the prospect cost down) is much better than having an infield defense of Gio, Gleyber, DJ and Voit behind “#2 pitcher” Domingo German, Jordan Montgomery, or whatever dumpster fire pitcher that Yankees GM Brian Cashman tries to sell us on here in about or so. The Yankees could also try and entice the Rockies to include Kyle Freeland (or less likely German Marquez) in the deal by including Louis Vinwood Voit III.

EDIT: Here is a mock trade I threw together rather quickly. While this isn't the trade I necessarily see happening, something similar could go down if this were to come to fruition. 

 

Standard Batting - Trevor Story

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2019	26	COL	145	656	111	173	38	5	35	85	23	8	58	174	.294	.363	.554	.917	119
2020	27	COL	59	259	41	68	13	4	11	28	15	3	24	63	.289	.355	.519	.874	118
162	162	162	162	683	101	171	39	6	36	101	21	6	57	195	.277	.343	.535	.877	114

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Standard Batting - DJ LeMahieu

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2018	29	COL	NL	128	581	90	147	32	2	15	62	6	5	37	82	.276	.321	.428	.749	88
162	162	162	162	162	658	92	182	29	5	12	67	12	6	48	97	.305	.357	.430	.787	102

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Now, since this post has basically turned into a Story vs. DJ post, which was not intended since I planned on bringing back DJ with or without this potential trade, let’s take a look at DJ’s final season in Colorado vs. Story’s 2019 season with the Rockies (we are leaving 2020 out due to sample size for Story). As you can see, Story outplayed DJ in many key categories during this comparison. While you can’t bank on lightning striking twice in the same spot with former Rockies coming over to the Yankees, you can predict it a little better when you know what type of player each player really is. Story, like DJ, uses the entire field and hits for average while taking an ample number of walks. Story will strike out too much and the Yankees faithful will hate that, but that’s where the comparison ends. DJ is a lead-off type hitter that loves to jump on a first pitch fastball. Story does his best work if he see’s a pitch or two first. Story would hit towards the middle of most lineups, but probably around 6^th here in the Bronx. He should hit second and Aaron Judge should hit third, in my opinion, but manager Aaron Boone (or is it Cashman here too?) seems obsessed with keeping Judge in the two hole. Judge has a higher career OBP than Story (Judge’s .390 OBP vs. Story’s .343), but again we are stuck in a place where one stat doesn’t tell the whole story. Judge has seen the likes of Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner hitting behind him in the 3^rd slot just for the sake of having a lefty up there, and while that’s not the sole reason for his OBP advantage, it certainly helps. Why pitch to Judge with Brett Gardner on deck? Especially with RISP. You don’t. In fact, you should never. Judge can change the game with one swing of the bat, Gardner and Hicks generally don’t do that.

 

My Yankees lineup, not the Yankees lineup that I think would be put out every day, would be this if the team were to acquire Story, re-sign DJ, and trade Voit for pitching:

 

1B – DJ LeMahieu

SS – Trevor Story

RF – Aaron Judge

DH – Giancarlo Stanton

CF – Aaron Hicks (for the sake of a lefty)

2B – Gleyber Torres

LF – Clint Frazier

3B- Gio Urshela

C – Gary Sanchez

 

Let me be frank, I don’t think this is what the Yankees are going to do. This is merely what I would do as the GM of the New York Yankees. I am not sure what the Rockies would need or want to include Story, or Story plus Freeland/Marquez, but with the Padres and Dodgers stranglehold on the division for a while I would lean towards the team being ready for a “total rebuild.” I say that with parenthesis because I find it unlikely that the team will be able to move Arenado in this current economic climate, but at the same time I also don’t think the likes of Frazier or other top talent and MLB-ready talent would need to be included beyond Voit. If the Rockies are interested in what many Yankees fans perceive as fringe players on the roster, Miguel Andujar, Mike Ford, Mike Tauchman and Tyler Wade immediately come to mind, then naturally that deal could change, but I am thinking of everyday players only when I say that.

 

Adding a defensive-minded shortstop that can hit over .300 with 20+ home runs and 90+ RBI a season to an already potent lineup seems unfair. Making the defense exponentially better while allowing the Yankees to trade Voit (and not miss much production, because remember Story’s production would somewhat offset what was lost by the exit of Voit) and add the cost-controlled young #2 or even #3 pitcher to match up with Cole… now that’s just being Greedy… and I love being Greedy.

 

The Cuban Missile Fails to Launch…

Photo Credit: Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Chapman Agrees to Extension w/Yanks…

Aroldis Chapman had the right to opt out of his contract on Saturday night but in the end, he agreed to a one-year extension worth $18 million (in addition to the remaining 2 years/$30 million left on his current contract). So, the opt out did not happen and the Cuban Missile, thankfully, did not launch into Free Agency.

As I wrote yesterday, I was prepared for Chapman to leave. I felt the Yankees would be fine with or without him but you can argue the Yankees would be better served by using Chapman’s money toward a frontline starter. Prior to the news of Chapman’s extension, word spread that Washington Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg had opted out of his contract. Strasburg gives the Free Agency Market two top starters and frankly, I’ll be disappointed if the Yankees do not try to sign either Strasburg or Gerrit Cole.

Honestly, the realist in me knows that the Yankees will not sign either Strasburg or Cole, and the Chapman extension has nothing to do with it. But until they sign, I’ll carry hope that one of them is a Yankee before the next season starts. Supposedly, agent Scott Boras and the Nationals are set to begin negotiations today but we’ll see. The Lerner family is capable of making Strasburg a very rich man but the question is will they? I thought they’d do what it takes to keep Bryce Harper last year rather than let him walk away to a division rival but I was wrong. Granted, they didn’t need Harper to win the World Series, but in Strasburg’s case, he is one of the game’s best and as we know too well, pitchers do not grow on trees.  

Photo Credit: Thomas B Shea, USA TODAY Sports

Last year, the Yankees lost out on Patrick Corbin because their offer was blown out of the water by the Nats. It would be very ironic (and poetic) if the Yankees snatched Strasburg away from Washington. Pitcher to pitcher, I’d much rather have Strasburg over Corbin. So it is possible that this could work out to the best possible case scenario for everyone who wanted the Yankees to sign Corbin last year.  

Anyway, sorry for the digression, let’s get back to Aroldis Chapman. I am glad he’s a Yankee today. I don’t blame him for the ALCS exit on the walk-off homer by Jose Altuve. Losses never come down to a single play. There are plenty of other things the Yankees could have done differently to change the outcome. You can’t pin the blame on one guy. Even the great Mariano Rivera was human at times. Chapman turns 32 in February so he’ll be a free agent again at age 35. I suspect that’s when the Yankees and Chapman part ways but for now, he’s the team’s closer and I am happy about the outcome. In a way, I do feel bad for Zack Britton who deserves the opportunity to close but he represents great insurance for the health of Chapman. Chapman, to go with Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green, ensures the Yankees will have a top bullpen in 2020.  

Welcome back, Chappy! We’re glad you decided to stay with us for another run or two or three at October. 

Stephen James Strasburg turns 32 in July. In 2019, he was 18-6 for the Nationals with 3.32 ERA. His K/9 was 10.81, HR/9 1.03, and WAR 5.7. He made 33 starts, good for 209 innings of work. It’s easy to salivate about a potential starting rotation of Strasburg, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jordan Montgomery (sorry J.A. Happ, don’t let the door hit you on the way out).  

I probably still want Gerrit Cole over Strasburg. He’s a little younger (won’t turn 30 until September). He had a brilliant 2019, going 20-5 with 2.50 ERA which should pay off with the AL Cy Young Award. His K/9 was a career best 13.82, HR/9 1.23 and he had the higher WAR at 7.4. The number of starts and innings were similar to Strasburg’s totals…same number of starts with 3 1/3 more innings. But regardless of whether it is Cole or Strasburg, either would look fantastic in Pinstripes.  

All of this just means that I should probably begin looking for my Zack Wheeler Yankees jersey.

Photo Credit: Twitter via @Wheelerpro45

There’s a name that Bryan Van Dusen of The Greedy Pinstripes has been pushing for months. German Marquez. He’ll only be 25 heading into next season and he has a wealth of talent and potential. He regressed in 2019 (like the entire Rockies team) but remains arguably the best pitcher on Colorado’s starting staff. I’ve long admired Jon Gray but at this point, there’s no question Marquez is the better pitcher.  He was 12-5 last season with 4.06 ERA (give the guy a break, he pitches at Coors Field). His K/9 was 9.05, HR/9 1.50 (again, Coors Field), and WAR 3.4. This guy is on clear path to replicating the numbers produced by Cole and Strasburg, and he’s five years younger than Cole. I didn’t think the Rockies would be willing to part with their young ace, but after a very disappointing season in the Mile High City, they need more than just help in the rotation.  The Yankees have the pieces that could help a Rockies rebuild and Marquez would fit nicely in the Bronx. Rumor has it that former Rockies do very well in the Bronx. If the Yankees do acquire Marquez, Van Dusen deserves much credit for continuing to shout his name. Marquez is one of a select very few number of pitchers that I’d consider giving up Deivi Garcia for. Luis Castillo of the Cincinnati Reds is another.

If the Yankees are looking to add to the bullpen, particularly if Dellin Betances leaves (I hope not), it won’t include Tony Watson, who has long been a Cashman target. Watson exercised his player option with the San Francisco Giants yesterday which will most likely keep him in the City by the Bay for another year.  Granted, he had a disappointing 2019 season but he remains one of the better lefty relievers around. I know, he’s 34 and he’s recovering from a broken wrist suffered in September but he’s a good guy to have in the pen.  

On the same day that Strasburg opted out of his contract, the Nationals dropped the hammer on two guys that helped bring the first World Series championship to Washington since 1924 yesterday (the same day as their victory parade). The team declined the options for first baseman Ryan Zimmerman and catcher Yan Gomes. While Zimmerman was expected (he’s simply not a $20 million/year player anymore), I was a little surprised about Gomes even if he didn’t have a great season statistically-speaking.  I’ve seen more than a few people suggest the Yankees should go after him to back up Gary Sanchez. While I am comfortable going into 2020 with Kyle Higashioka as the backup, I’ll admit that it would be intriguing to have Gomes. He did very well with the great pitching staffs in Cleveland. As much as I want Gary Sanchez to have a healthy, monster season next year, the hard truth is that whomever backs him up will see plenty of playing time. Gomes should be given consideration, in my opinion, if the price is right.

Are the Mets really considering their former manager, Terry Collins, as Carlos Beltran’s bench coach? That’s funny. No disrespect to Collins, who I think is an excellent baseball guy, but it just seems odd that he’d take a coaching position with the Mets after being fired as their manager a couple of years ago. Carlos Beltran recently said that Collins was the best manager he had played for, a group that includes Joe Girardi, Bruce Bochy, and A.J. Hinch.  

The five-day exclusive negotiating period for teams and their own free agents will officially end tomorrow so let the Hot Stove League begin! For Yankee fans, we’ll see the names of Cole and Strasburg ad nauseam until we don’t (meaning they sign somewhere).  

Buckle up, this should be fun.

As always, Go Yankees!

Predicting The Offseason & 2020 Active Roster

One of my favorite things to write is my predictions for the offseason, along with the following season's active roster. That's not because I'm good at it, although I don't think my ideas are bad, it's just a fun exercise.

There's no need for a long introduction, which you're probably not reading anyway ("Just tell me what you think!"), so here goes...

I'm planning the 2020 season without Domingo German. Even if he's innocent he's going to be suspended for a significant period of time. So when you don't see him listed below don't be like "what the hell?"

I find it hard to believe that the Yankees will make a serious push for Gerrit Cole, as they have seemed more concerned with saving money than spending it the last few years. It's more likely that they sign someone like Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner, but I can't give up hope. So here are reasons why I think the Yankees will sign Cole (aka "how I'm talking myself into believing they will sign Cole")

1. Thanks to his father, who is from Syracuse, Cole grew up a Yankees fan. I know him being a Yankees fan when he was young means little to nothing, but it's still something to keep in mind. Plus, that photo of him with the sign during Game 7 of the 2001 World Series will be shown over and over again.

2. The Yankees drafted him in 2008, only for him to go to UCLA instead. But they liked Gerrit long before he was a Cy Young candidate.

3. Unlike Corbin, Cole has pitched in and had massive success in the AL... and against them.

4. With the expensive contracts of Tanaka and Ellsbury (by the way, Jacoby's not being traded. Who in their right mind would pay Ellsbury ANYTHING to sit at home?) coming off the books after next season, perhaps the Yankees will be more likely to bit the bullet by having a huge payroll for one season.

The Yankees would probably look to save as much money as possible at this point, so I'm also predicting that they trade JA Happ. While the Yankees would likely have to eat a decent chunk of Happ's $17 million salary, they should be able to save a decent amount. Furthermore, I think the Yankees will not tender contracts to Greg Bird, Tyler Lyons, Luis Cessa, and Jonathan Holder.

Even though I wouldn't want to see Happ starting for the Yankees in 2020, anyway, there's still a rotation spot available. They'll have Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton, and Masahiro Tanaka. Therefore, I think Cashman trades for one more starter.

Cash has a lot of bullets to choose from, most notably Clint Frazier. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Thairo Estrada used as trade fodder too, seeing as how the Yankees infield looks set for years to come. I took a look at pitchers that may be acquired via trade, who wouldn't cost a ton, and someone that stood out to me was German Marquez. German has a good ground ball rate, good strikeout rate, and throws the ball hard. Not to mention Marquez is just 24 years old and will be entering his first year of arbitration eligibility. The fact he's arbitration-eligible means he won't be cheap, which may be something Colorado likes as they're unlikely to compete before German is a free agent in a few years. German's home run rate is kinda high, but before pitching at Coor's Field (meaning in the minors), he wasn't nearly as prone to the long ball. So hopefully that home run rate comes down in New York.

Since I'm talking about Yankees pitchers I'm sure some people out there are waiting for me to bring up Deivi Garcia. That or they think I've forgot about him. Well, I didn't forget about Deivi. But I don't think he's ready, and could do with a little more time in AAA before possibly taking a rotation spot (Tanaka and Paxton will be free agents after next season) in 2021.

Moving onto run production...

I'm going to start with Cameron Maybin. For the record, I really like the guy, but there's no need for him on the roster. I think he's earned a starting gig somewhere, but it certainly won't be for the Yankees.

It's not easy to let Edwin Encarnacion go, either. But, like Maybin, I just don't see a role for him in New York. I think Edwin's option is too much, especially when the team will be looking to cut payroll to make room for Cole. If Encarnacion hit for a better batting average that might make me think otherwise, but we already have too many guys that depend on the long ball for value.

Then we come to Didi Gregorius. I really like Sir Didi, but the Yankees have to face facts... the guy is an average hitter. Sure, Gregorius plays very good defense, but the Yankees can fill the infield and get good defense without him. The only way I see Didi returning to the Yankees is if he gives them a big discount, and will accept a part-time role. But I can see many teams that would offer him more money and a regular starting gig.

I have to say that I'm not totally sold on Thairo Estrada. If he were to start the season on the bench, in the role as backup middle infielder, I'd be perfectly fine with that. But if he's used as trade fodder, like I mentioned earlier, then the Yankees would probably try to find a diamond like they did last year with DJ LeMahieu. Although I'd like Tyler Wade to get some more playing time in MLB to see for sure what we have, or don't have, in the kid. I would say his lefty bat would be welcome on a righty-heavy roster, but the bench I have in mind already has a couple lefty bats. I guess another wouldn't be bad, though.

It's also time to let Austin Romine go. Besides the fact that I think it would be unnecessary to pay for a backup catcher when I believe Kyle Higashioka could do a fine job in that role, I can see some team in the league giving Romine a shot as a starter. Sort of like how Francisco Cervelli was able to land a starting gig in Pittsburgh when he left the Yankees after the 2014 season.

How about batters to sign? Well, this isn't anyone new, but after the news of Aaron Hicks getting Tommy John surgery and being out until August or later, the Yankees pretty much have to bring back Brett Gardner. Some Yankees fans may want the Yankees to spend big on a new centerfielder, be that with money and/or prospects, but it's not happening. They've committed to Aaron Hicks for six more years, and while that contract didn't start off well, they aren't going to abandon that so soon. With that said, I'm not sure Gardy starts the majority of games in centerfield for the Yankees, as I think Mike Tauchman will earn the Opening Day nod there.

Gio Urshela has earned the third base job, not only with the bat (he hit .314/.355.534 in 132 games in 2019), but with his defense as well (the fielding stats don't like him, but the eye test adores him). That leaves Andujar without a position. This isn't necessarily a bad thing as he returns from Tommy John surgery, since his throwing arm can rest. Besides, Miguel wasn't good at the hot corner anyway. I think he could learn to play a solid first base, though. Andujar's used to hard-hit ground balls coming his way, so poorly thrown balls likely wouldn't be that big a concern. However, changing positions isn't easy, so having Voit start there most of the time would be ideal (hopefully he improves his defense, though). But don't be surprised if Andujar is the regular first baseman by the All Star break.

There's one more free agent signing that needs to be made, and it won't come as any surprise to those that paid any attention to the Yankees this season... Dellin Betances.

If it wasn't for suffering multiple injuries this season, and not insignificant ones, bringing Betances back might not have been possible. The guy was in line to get paid to be the closer for somebody, but at this point I have to believe that's no longer the case. For his sake that really sucks, because at 31 years old he's running out of time to cash in. So, for that reason, I can see Dellin taking a one year contract with a player option, that way if he has a healthy season he can test free agency at 32 years old. Otherwise, he can at least get paid for that second season and try again at age 33.


Starting Lineup
1. DJ LeMahieu 2B
2. Aaron Judge RF
3. Gleyber Torres SS
4. Giancarlo Stanton LF
5. Luke Voit 1B
6. Gary Sanchez C
7. Miguel Andujar DH
8. Mike Tauchman* CF
9. Gio Urshela 3B

Bench
C Kyle Higashioka
OF Brett Gardner*
IF Thairo Estrada (or Tyler Wade* if Estrada is traded)
1B Mike Ford*
NOTE: It is a very righty heavy lineup, so I see Ford and Gardner getting plenty of starts.

Starting Pitchers
Gerrit Cole
Luis Severino
James Paxton*
Masahiro Tanaka
German Marquez

Bullpen
CL Aroldis Chapman*
SU Zack Britton*
MR Dellin Betances
MR Adam Ottavino
MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Chad Green
LR Jordan Montgomery*
LR Jonathan Loaisiga

* - left-handed hitter or pitcher