Preparing for Yankees Baseball in December...

Biggest month of the off-season begins in 3, 2, 1…

From a baseball off-season perspective, it’s always good to put the Thanksgiving weekend in the rear view mirror. Generally, there are not too many transactions in November and while there were a few free agent signings and trades this year, the heart of the off-season begins as the calendar page rolls into December.

Like many fans, I continue to hold out hope the Yankees sign one of Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. Realistically, I do not feel the Yankees will be the highest bidder for either pitcher. There’s probably a better chance they go for a guy like Madison Bumgarner if they dip into the free agent pool at all or better yet, make a trade for a young starter with strong upside. My only concern is that Cole and Strasburg can be had for money (something which the Yankees have even if they are bumping up against the highest luxury tax tier) whereas a trade would cost young, talented prospects. I am not trying to “prospect hug”, but if you don’t have to trade Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Albert Abreu or another top pitching prospect, why do it? I’d rather the Yankees part with cash than young players who could one day help the Yankees. Ultimately, I do feel GM Brian Cashman will do the right thing for the organization or at least I can hope. I am sure new pitching coach Matt Blake is helping the analytics team scour organizational pitching in search of the next Shane Bieber. 

Matt Blake, Yankees Pitching Coach

The Yankees over the last few years have shown us they operate within a certain budget and when given the choice, they’ll make financially conservative decisions over spending “stupid money”. As much as I like Cole and Strasburg, I cannot see the Yankees handing out $200 million plus contracts for either pitcher.  It kind of reminds me of back when the Yankees were negotiating with Ron Guidry one year and held him to $900,000 because George Steinbrenner didn’t think pitchers were worth a million dollars per year. I am sure Hal Steinbrenner knows how much he wants to pay for a pitcher and there is a line he is unwilling to cross. My guess is Cole signs with the Los Angeles Angels and given that he has not yet returned to Washington, Strasburg goes home to San Diego. Money outweighs playing at home, sure, but for both, I think their home town teams will be the victors with the most green. 

Max Goldstein took a lot of heat for writing on article on Elite Sports NY yesterday entitled “New York Yankees should pursue Zack Wheeler and Alex Wood”. He provides very compelling reasons for why it’s the more likely outcome for the Yankees given their recent history. Whether or not I’d like that result is irrelevant. It simply stands as a strong possibility. If Wheeler and Wood were to become Yankees, I’d certainly support them. I want Gerrit Cole as much as anybody but the realist in me knows that we need to keep a very open mind regarding the potential actualities for the starting rotation. We are most likely not going to get the big ticket purchases and have to be prepared for players of value and potential. 

I am also prepared to lose Didi Gregorius, Dellin Betances, and Austin Romine. There’s been talk lately that both Didi and Dellin, and possibly even Romine, could join Joe Girardi in Philadelphia. I hate to be petty, but I’d hate to see that happen. If Didi leaves, I’d prefer to see him go back to Cincinnati. As for Dellin, I’d rather see him join the Los Angeles Dodgers than the New York Mets. I continue to believe that Romine goes to the Los Angeles Angels, like Gerrit Cole. Of the three, I think the loss of Betances will hurt the most. The recent reports about the Yankees’ interest in Kansas City’s Tim Hill or Oakland’s Blake Treinen seem to indicate the Yankees are looking for Dellin’s replacement rather than simply looking to bolster the pen. Didi Gregorius has been one of my favorite Yankees. He was the perfect guy to replace Derek Jeter, and his personality is so enjoyable. I strongly believe 2020 will be a bounce back year for him and I hope it is in Pinstripes. While I know Gleyber Torres is a more than capable shortstop, my preference would be to keep him at second and bring Didi back. If Didi leaves, D.J. LeMahieu can be a free agent next year and we could be back searching for a second baseman next off-season like we were when Robinson Cano left. The Yankees could potentially swing a rumored trade for Francisco Lindor and Corey Kluber that would solve the shortstop/second base debate while addressing the starting rotation. No doubt I’d take Lindor over Sir Didi any day of the week regardless of how much I like the latter. However, I don’t think the Lindor/Kluber trade will happen, at least not with the Yankees.   

I am not against the Yankees re-signing Austin Romine. I think he’s been a very good backup for the Yankees and the pitching staff loves him. In my opinion, another team will pay him more than the Yankees are offering and they’ll give him a better line for a starting job.  While Gary Sanchez is the undisputed starter for the Yankees, the need for two quality catchers in today’s game is very important. We’ve seen the Atlanta Braves spend to bring in Travis d’Arnaud, who enjoyed a career resurgence with the Tampa Bay Rays last year, to pair with Tyler Flowers following the retirement of Brian McCann. The Washington Nationals brought back Yan Gomes to pair with Kurt Suzuki.  While I think Kyle Higashioka can be that guy, we don’t really know until he proves he can be. I can see the Yankees bringing in catching competition for training camp to see where the chips fall. The depth behind Higgy is not good. The organization’s best catching prospects, Anthony Siegler and Josh Breaux are a couple of years away.

In a perfect world, I’d love to see Gregorius, Betances, and Romine all return to the Yankees next season, while bringing in Cole and Strasburg. Sadly it will not happen and we need to be prepared for none of them to be Yankees.

A controversial topic lately, at least among the Yankees fan base, is if the team should introduce alternative road uniforms. I think the majority, based on what I’ve seen, prefer to remain with the traditional uniforms without exception. While some like the all black uniforms the Yankees wore last year in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, there’s probably no chance the topic is even under discussion or consideration with the Steinbrenner family. For me, I have always loved these road uniforms worn by Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. 

Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth

There’s no way I’d ever want the Yankees to mess with the home uniform but for the road, who cares?  The most important representation is the interlocking N-Y on the baseball cap. I hate the traditionalist mindset that says, ‘we do it because that’s the way we’ve always done it’. Change is good. I don’t want names on the uniforms so maybe that part of me is a traditionalist, but I have no objection to change for the better. 

Following the release of Greg Bird by the Yankees, it seems that his best course to get back to the Major Leagues is to sign a minor league deal with a training camp invitation. Perhaps some team will offer him a major league contract but I doubt it.  Every MLB team had a chance to claim him on waivers and chose not to. Granted, as a free agent, he’ll come more cheaply than he would have if claimed off waivers, but Bird has much to prove. He needs to find a team that is willing to be patient with him. I wish him the best, and while I will miss his swing, I won’t miss his injury reports. I truly hope he has better luck staying healthy with his next destination. I think my biggest fear is that he goes to the Boston Red Sox and becomes the player we always thought he would be.    

Monday is a big day with the 8 pm Eastern deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. A couple of former Yankees are among the list of potential non-tender candidates…Brandon Drury and John Ryan Murphy.  I wouldn’t be opposed to a reunion with either player. I know both have underperformed since leaving the Yankees but I liked both when they were here and I continue to hold the optimism they could succeed in the right environment. I’d like to see what new catching coordinator Tanner Swanson could do with Murphy.   

A week from Sunday is the start of Baseball’s Winter Meetings in San Diego, CA.  No doubt San Diego would love to dominate the local headlines with a Strasburg signing during the Meetings. It feels like this year’s meetings should be more active than last year. The off-season so far has been more active even if the Yankees have been relatively quiet. I guess we’ll soon find out. Time will tell if Hal Steinbrenner intends to deliver us a few Christmas presents early. 

I hope everyone had an enjoyable and memorable Thanksgiving! It’s a beautiful time to spend with friends and family.

As always, Go Yankees!

Is the World Series over yet?...

Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated

Preparing for the 2019-20 Hot Stove League…

While many continue to watch the World Series, except for an occasional check-in, the 2019 MLB season ended for me last weekend with the ALCS. It’s hard to get enthused about either the Houston Astros or the Washington Nationals. Sure, the Nationals as a first time participant are a nice story but I don’t really care to see either team win the World Series so let’s just get this over so that we can move on to the Hot Stove League.

It’s hard to not wonder what could have been if the Yankees had taken a better hitting approach against the Astros. Oh well, it was not meant to be. Time to move on and hope the Yankees make a stronger run in 2020. The window remains wide open. This is certainly not the last we’ve heard from this core group of Yankees.

Photo Credit: The New York Post

As much as I would like Gerrit Cole leading the Yankees’ starting rotation next season, the reality is it will never happen. Cole’s agent, none other than the infamous Scott Boras, will ensure that his client becomes very wealthy this winter. I just don’t see Hal Steinbrenner’s willingness to write a blank check. It seems as though this will end like the Patrick Corbin negotiations. The Yankees will host Cole for a visit at Yankee Stadium, they’ll toss him a token offer, and he’ll leave empty handed. Some team is going to throw stupid money at him and it won’t be the Yankees. You can talk all day about how the Yankees can afford it, but that’s not the point. The Yankees are not going to devote so many dollars to one player. They have in-house financial decisions to make. Last off-season they locked up Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks. Granted, both players missed considerable time during the regular season so you can question the wisdom of the moves, but in Severino’s case in particular, he still represents the future. An extension for Aaron Judge seems appropriate this off-season.  I feel Gleyber Torres too but I think the Yankees will wait a season or two before securing the long-time services of the young burgeoning superstar. Judge can be a free agent after the 2022 season so the urgency is beginning to develop for him. Torres can’t be a free agent until after the 2024 season.

The Yankees need an ace. I think Sevy can be that guy, but last year showed you can’t put all your eggs in one basket. James Paxton has shown at times he can be an ace but he needs to show sustained excellence over the course of a long season. I think a very strong #1 starter, followed by Sevy, Big Maple, and Masahiro Tanaka would make for a championship caliber rotation. The question is who the #1 starter would be. Names will develop in the coming weeks. I keep seeing Yankee fans pining for Lucas Giolito but there’s no way the Chicago White Sox, with their abundance of blossoming young talent, will part with their young ace. If they did, they’d need quality, major league-ready talent in return, not prospects years away from the Show. I think there’s a better chance the Yankees could get the Cincinnati Reds to part with Luis Castillo, but even then the price tag will be very high. On the free agent front, Madison Bumgarner certainly represents an option. I am intrigued what he could do on a highly competitive team. I really feel the Yankees would re-energize him so I’d be happy if they were able to land him. I don’t know where Cashman’s search for starting pitching will lead. None of us do. Inevitably, he’ll surprise us.  I just don’t want another season of missed opportunity and Cashman’s statements that he tried. Love or hate Houston, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, has shown the willingness to pull the trigger when it matters. He has two World Series appearances in the last three years to show for it. It’s not that I want Brian Cashman to make stupid decisions or saddle the Yankees with another Jacoby Ellsbury contract albatross. But there are times you have to spend more than you want to get what you need.

The news that Aaron Hicks will miss the next 8-10 months due to Tommy John surgery left me wondering why the Yankees ever brought him back for the ALCS. Sure, the home run was great but in the end, it didn’t matter. I would have preferred to have Hicks for the majority of the 2020 season if he could have had the inevitable surgery earlier.  The news about Hicks brought immediate speculation the Yankees have to re-sign Brett Gardner. I felt the Yankees and Gardner would come together on another one-year deal before the Hicks news and I still feel the same, but I don’t think the vision that he’ll be no more than the fourth outfielder has changed. I think Mike Tauchman has a better chance to be the regular starting option in center field with the possibility that it could be someone not currently on the roster. I really wish Estevan Florial was closer to readiness, but he’s not. I am sure the Yankees’ analytics team is at work trying to discover the next Mike Tauchman, a centerfielder who is undervalued in his current organization but blossoming with hidden talent.  

I am not sure what I think about the “reports” that the Yankees could move Giancarlo Stanton to the Los Angeles Dodgers or Angels, if they can find the right mix of dollars to part with the slugger. I like Stanton and I feel he’s received unfair treatment from the Yankees fan base. Maybe there’s some validity to the criticisms he has received, but I still think he has the Dave Winfield-like ability to carry a team on his back. I’d like to see him stay with the Yankees, and have the opportunity to show he’s “the man” in October. I like Mike Tauchman but there’s no way in the World I’d take him over Stanton in left field.  Stanton needs our support, not the unfair hate directed his way. If he does get traded, I’ll be disappointed, but I will enjoy watching baseball in sunny Southern CA with the Angelino kid crushing pitches in front of his hometown fans. 

Photo Credit: UPI.com

Not that I think reunions are in store, but two former Yankees quietly became free agents in recent weeks. Chasen Shreve, part of the deal that brought Luke Voit to New York, is a free agent. Giovanny Gallegos has blossomed in the St Louis Cardinals’ bullpen so I doubt the Cards regret their decision to part with Voit, but I do feel bad it didn’t work out for Shreve. Same in San Diego with former Yankees prospect Bryan Mitchell. He was the prospect attached to Chase Headley in the successful contract unload a few years ago. I always liked Mitchell and had really hoped he would thrive in San Diego. He didn’t, and now he’s a free agent. Both are young enough (28 and 29, respectively) to be reclamation projects. Hopefully, for both, they’ll find better success with their next organizations.

Speaking of former Yanks, it was a surprise to see Joe Girardi land in Philadelphia. Granted, all signs started pointing in that direction over the last week or so, but before the Phillies fired manager Gabe Kapler, I felt strongly that Girardi would be the next manager for either the New York Mets or the Chicago Cubs. I never saw him as a Philly guy. I do think he’ll be better for that team than Kapler (okay, that was a statement of the obvious). It’s cool that his bench coach, Rob Thomson, is already in place. There’s been some speculation if he’ll take any of the current Yankee coaches who served under him (bullpen coach Mike Harkey, a close friend, and pitching coach Larry Rothschild). I think Rothschild gets unfair criticism but I’ve long wanted David Cone as the pitching coach so I’d be okay with Rothschild’s departure if it meant getting Coney back in the pinstripes. My absolute favorite for pitching coach is Andy Pettitte but I am not convinced he is ready to leave Texas yet. A dark horse hope for pitching coach would be former San Francisco Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. He was the pitching coach for three World Series champions over the past decade and he oversaw Madison Bumgarner’s greatest days as a Giant. Anyway, back to Girardi, I think he’ll do well for the Phillies. He’ll have to learn the NL style of play. I know, he has one year of NL managing under his belt but that was a long time ago. For Girardi’s sake, it is a good thing that his former and future bench coach, Thomson, had a one year head start. I am glad that Girardi avoided the mess known as the Wilpon’s.  

Good hire by the Boston Red Sox when they named former Tampa Bay Rays executive Chaim Bloom as their new head of operations. Assistant GM Brian O’Halloran will be promoted to GM to work under Bloom’s leadership. I wish I could criticize this move by Boston but I think they made the best possible hire if Bloom is allowed to truly run the show. I feel the New York Mets erred when they selected Brodie Van Wagenen as their GM over Bloom last year. It seems as if more and more teams are going the “chief baseball officer” route. I really wish the Yankees would promote Brian Cashman to chief baseball officer, and promote Tim Naehring to GM. Love him or hate him, Cash deserves the promotion in my opinion.

It’s funny. Last season, I could hardly wait for the World Series to be over and for the free agency period to open in November. I won’t hide the fact that I wanted either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper and was so anxious to see if the Yankees would sign one of the talented young superstars, or grab the best free agent starter in Patrick Corbin. It was a long winter that led to none of the above in Pinstripes. This season, I think I am more passive. I am not really looking forward to free agency this year like I was last year. I am very interested in seeing the moves that Brian Cashman and company will make, but not with the same excitement. What will be will be. I was never against the DJ LeMahieu signing (I knew he was better than advertised) but I never dreamed he’d be as valuable to the Yankees as he was. It only shows that we need to allow any moves time to marinate. We don’t need big splashes. We need a clubhouse full of the right mix of players to bring the 28th World Championship to the Bronx.  

As always, Go Yankees!

The Year of "Next Man Up"...

Photo Credit: Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

Yankees win again in the City by the Bay…

I’ve tempered my expectations for the 2019 Yankees given the savage rash of injuries that have afflicted the team, but you have to love this ‘next man up’ attitude of the replacement Yankees. No doubt if they can continue to drive the team to sustained success, the October prospects for the eventual healthy Yankees appear to be very grand.

Every year, there’s a team that somehow has the ‘it’ quality in their chase for the pennant. Last year, there is no question the Boston Red Sox had it when they busted out of the gate quickly and seemingly found a way to win every night on their way to 108 regular season wins and, eventually, the World Series championship. The 2019 Yankees have had every reason to fold up their tent and hope for next year, except they haven’t. As each new guy shows up, someone comes up big and they move on to the next game, win after win.  

The Yankees will have hard decisions to make when guys start to come back from the Injured List. I’d hate to be Aaron Boone having the conversations with the replacement Yankees that their spots on the MLB roster have been eliminated, whether it is through demotion to Triple A or designation for assignment. Giovanny Urshela is one of those guys. We knew he had a superior glove in Spring Training, but despite his ‘all glove/no bat’ reputation, he has come through in clutch situations this year with the lumber to help the team score runs. Honestly, I prefer Urshela over Troy Tulowitzki. I know they play different positions but if I could only choose one for the active roster, it would have to be Gio. I don’t trust Tulo to stay healthy and right now, with his stint on the Injured List, he is proving me right. For the record, I like to be proven wrong when I have a negative perception of a certain player. But that’s on Tulo, not me.

I was a little disappointed with the series finale in Anaheim on Thursday when Masahiro Tanaka gave up a couple of two-run homers to let the LA Angels tie the game, and then Boone went to the weaker arms in the pen to allow the Angels to blow the game open. However, winning three of four games, especially in Anaheim…a place that was once a House of Horrors for the Yanks, is tremendous.  I’d gladly settle for three of four or two of three every series.  

The Yankees continued their winning ways last night with a 7-3 victory in the Bay Area opener against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park Oracle Park. It was weird seeing Tyler Austin wearing orange and black and playing this game as a foe. He had San Francisco’s first hit when he singled to right off James Paxton in the bottom of the first inning. He scored the Giants’ first run on a sac fly after Brandon Belt had doubled to move him to third. But with no offense to Austin, the game’s best first baseman was Luke Voit. Louis Linwood Voit III was 3-for-4 with a home run, three RBIs, and two runs scored.  

Paxton was unable to make a “quality” start by definition (an out away from completing six full innings when the Giants made it a two-run game in the bottom of the sixth) but he was very effective nonetheless. He finished with eight strikeouts to improve his record to 3-2. 

Photo Credit: Getty Images

I shudder to think of where the Yankees would be without the Big Maple. No question he is the team’s ace while Luis Severino is away. Unlike that last game in Anaheim, Aaron Boone made the right bullpen moves this game. Well, almost. I was disappointed with the three consecutive two-out walks by Zack Britton in the bottom of the seventh to load the bases, but all’s well that ends well. Adam Ottavino came in to strike out Buster Posey, his former NL West rival, to end the threat. So, despite those walks by Britton, the bullpen did not give up any hits or runs to the Giants to preserve the win for Paxton. I continue to stand by Britton but I know there are plenty of Yankee fans who would have preferred the return of David Robertson over Britton. Robertson is currently on the Injured List for the Philadelphia Phillies as he continues to recover from a Grade 1 flexor strain in his throwing arm. I guess D-Rob would have fit well on this year’s Yankees squad. 

For everyone hoping the Yankees try to acquire Giants ace Madison Bumgarner at the trading deadline, this was not a good showcase for the one-time World Series hero. The lefty surrendered 11 hits and 5 runs in 5 2/3 innings to the team some call the New York RailRiders. He is 1-4 for the season with a 4.30 ERA.  I guess he knows how Chris Sale feels this season. Pitchers are fragile creatures unless your name is Mariano Rivera.

Photo Credit: Ben Margot/AP

One-time Yankee prospect Mark Melancon, who has struggled with injuries in recent years, surrendered a two-run homer in the ninth inning to Luke Voit. Another former Yank, catcher Erik Kratz, struck out swinging in a pinch-hitting appearance against closer Aroldis Chapman to end the game.  

With the win, the Yankees (15-11) picked up a 1/2 game on the idle division-leading Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays game in Boston was rained out and won’t be made up until June. Yankees currently trail the Rays by only 1 1/2 games as the Rays have started to come back to Earth after their torrid start. Again, the replacement Yankees get so much credit for helping this team stay afloat until the big guns are back. Actually, ‘stay afloat’ is a poor choice of words because they are doing so much better. My expectation or hope was they’d stay afloat to weather this storm but, clearly, they’ve done much more.

I’ll certainly cheer on Cameron Maybin as the newest of the replacement Yankees but admittedly I was a bit underwhelmed when I heard that he had been acquired for Cash (loved the references by people on Twitter that GM Brian Cashman had sacrificed himself for Maybin). But it was the green stuff that went to Cleveland for Maybin and not the Yankees’ long-time GM. Maybin, toiling for Cleveland’s Triple A team, was no doubt excited just to get another big league opportunity. He spent Spring Training with the team he is presently facing (the Giants). Early on, it looked like Maybin was going to make the Giants’ roster but a DUI in mid-March contributed, in part, to his release on March 22nd.  To Maybin’s defense, he seems like a good guy and appreciative of his latest opportunity. I am certainly not expecting much from him and it’s more than likely his Yankees career will be brief, but hopefully he can make a contribution as the next man up.

Photo Credit: Ben Margot/AP

I had hoped that we would soon see the return of Giancarlo Stanton to man right field until Aaron Judge returns, but it sounds like we won’t see him on this road trip due to a temporary setback. Hopefully it is just a minor thing and we’ll see him when the Yankees return to the Bronx early next month. Once fearing that he’d be lost for the season with the partially torn right labrum, it now appears Miguel Andujar could return before Stanton does. I have absolutely no idea if Andujar can make the necessary throws at third with his injury, but he deserves the chance to show he can play the position despite Urshela’s solid role in holding down third base with the help of DJ LeMahieu. If not, I agree with those who say Andujar should be moved to first base and DH to share time with Luke Voit in alternating roles. Mike Ford should be the odd man out (not Urshela) but that’s alright. Andujar is far more important to this team than Ford is.  

Photo Credit: Julie Jacobson/AP

This has been a tough week with the Yankees playing the Pacific Time Zone. For those of you in the Eastern Time Zone, my hat’s off to you if you’ve stayed up to watch the games. All I can say is thank God for DVR. At least there is only one more late night game (Tuesday night in Phoenix) before the Yankees return to New York. This weekend’s games are afternoon affairs. Same with Wednesday’s getaway game in Arizona to conclude the short two-game series with the Diamondbacks.  

It’s a new day and another opportunity for a replacement Yank to step up. With J.A. Happ on the mound, they’ll need a few of the bats to come alive. Somehow, I suspect they’ll do it. They generally do.  

As always, Go Yankees! 

What it could take to acquire post-season superstar pitcher Madison Bumgarner

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

One pitcher the Yankees should definitely look to trade for is 29-year-old Madison Bumgarner. His value diminished, as he has regressed significantly over the last three years, two of which have been plagued by injuries. In 2017, Bumgarner missed nearly three months of the season due to an injury that occurred when he was riding a dirt bike. This past season, Bumgarner missed all of April and May with a fractured left hand (off of a line drive that struck him during a preseason game against the Royals). Presumably, his recent drop in performance can be attributed to a combination of the aforementioned fluke injuries and age decline (which has subsequently led to decreased FB velocity and potency). The stat-line (all metrics according to Fangraphs) below provides evidence for Mad Bum’s recent reduction in effectiveness…

IP

2015: 218.1

2016: 226.2

2017: 111.0

2018: 129.2

K/9, FB Vel, and FB SwStr%

2015: 9.65; 92.8; 10%

2016: 9.97; 91.5; 9.7%

2017: 8.19; 91.0; 6.5%

2018: 7.57; 90.9; 4.7%

BB/9

2015: 1.61

2016: 2.14

2017: 1.62

2018: 2.98

ERA

2015: 2.93

2016: 2.74

2017: 3.32

2018: 3.26

xFIP

2015: 3.02

2016: 3.54

2017: 4.07

2018: 4.32

WAR

2015: 5.2

2016: 4.9

2017: 1.7

2018: 1.4

Despite the fact that Bumgarner’s value is deteriorating, there is lots of room for growth if Bumgarner virtually ditches his fastball…

Cutter SwStr%: 2015 – 14.8%; 2016 – 11.5%; 2017 – 11.3%; 2018 – 11.8%

vs

Fastball SwStr%: 2015 – 10%; 2016 – 9.7%; 2017 – 6.5%; 4.7%

and

Cutter AVG: 2015 – .230; 2016 – .224; 2017 – .224; 2018 – .214

vs

Fastball AVG: 2015 – .242; 2016 – .236; 2017 – .256; 2018 – .299

and

Cutter HRs and pitches: 2015 – 4 (1040 pitches); 2016 – 8 (1185 pitches); 2017 – 3 (594 pitches); 2018 – 5 (719 pitches)

vs 

Fastball HRs and pitches: 2015 – 11 (1630 pitches); 2016 – 18 (1709 pitches); 2017 – 10 (712 pitches); 2018 – 8 (703 pitches)

In 2018, Mad Bum threw his cutter 35% of the time and his fastball 34.2% (basically the same frequency). If he had implemented the following pitch mix (using more CBs and cutters in lieu of his FB), he would have indisputably pitched more effectively…

Cutter: 50% (2018 – 11.8 SwStr%)

Curveball: 37.2% (2018 – 11.7 SwStr%)

Changeup: 8.6% (2018 – 8.9 SwStr%)

Fastball: 4.2% (2018 – 4.7 SwStr%)

We can now estimate what his overall SwStr%, HRs against, and AVG against would have looked like last year with this seemingly improvised pitch repertoire. For the purpose of this investigation, let’s assume the 2018 SwStr%, HRs against, and AVG against for a particular pitch remain constant regardless of the change in its usage). 

2018 Overall SwStr% – 9.2%

vs

Overall SwStr% with improved pitch mix: [2018 total pitches – 2045; 50% cutters – 1022 pitches; 37.2% curveballs – 761 pitches; 8.6% changeups – 176 pitches; 4.2% fastballs – 86 pitches]; [(cutter 11.8 SwStr% * 0.5) + curveball 11.7 SwStr% * 0.372) + (changeup 8.6 SwStr% * 0.089) + (fastball 4.7 SwStr% * 0.047)] = 5.9 + 4.4 + 4.3524 + 0.7654 + 0.2209 = 15.6 SwStr%

That SwStr% is 6.4% higher than his 2018 mark and would have put Bumgarner in a tie for the 2nd highest overall SwStr% (Corbin: 15.6 SwStr% and Scherzer: 16.2%).

and

2018 HRs against: 14 HRs 

• # of HRs conceded / 100 cutters: 0.69541 (5 HRs off cutter in 2018 / 719 cutters thrown)
• # of HRs conceded / 100 fastballs: 1.13798 (8 HRs off fastball in 2018 / 703 fastballs thrown) 
• # of HRs conceded / 100 curveballs thrown: 0.21978 (1 HR off curveball in 2018 / 455 curveballs thrown)
• # of HRs conceded / 100 curveballs thrown: 0 (0 HRs off changeup in 2018 / 157 changeups thrown)

vs

HRs against with improved pitch mix: (0.69541% * 1022 cutters) + (0.21978% * 761 curveballs) + (0% * 176 changeups) + (1.13798% * 86 fastballs) = 7.11070902 + 1.6725258 + 0 + 0.9786628 = 10 HRs

and 

2018 AVG against: .235

• AVG against cutter: .214
• AVG against fastball: .299
• AVG against curveball: .187
• AVG against changeup: .303

vs

AVG against with improved pitch mix: (.214 * 50% cutter usage) + (.299 * 4.2% fastball usage) + (.187 * 37.2% curveball usage) + (.303 * 8.6% changeup usage) = .107 + .012558 + .069564 + .026058 = .215 AVG against

In summary, if Mad Bum had utilized the improved pitch mix, he would have likely…

• Gotten more strikeouts
• Given up fewer HRs
• Given up fewer hits

A trade of Bumgarner represents the best opportunity for San Francisco to obtain high-end young players as the franchise begins what it hopes will be a rapid rebuild under new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi

Although "Zaidi has publicly stated that the Giants aren’t making outgoing calls regarding Madison Bumgarner, ... that doesn’t mean talks with every team have died down" (The Mercury News).

We will integrate Fangraphs’ new Update to Prospect Valuation system in order to most precisely formulate realistic compensation that the Yankees could conceivably part with (for Madison Bumgarner). 

results are presented in present-day WAR and translated to a rough dollar figure based on $9 million as the cost of a win on the free-agent market. Keep in mind that the dollar figure isn’t a direct value, but rather equivalent value of a prospect relative to the free-agent market. Part of the reason prospects have such tremendous value is due to the suppressed salaries permitted by the CBA until a player has reached six years of service time. By translating the WAR figure into a monetary value, we can compare the value of prospects with the values of major-league players and their contracts. These values likely roughly approximate what an individual player might get as a signing bonus if he were declared a free agent and teams could only provide a signing bonus instead of a long-term contract.

Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards

In other words, Fangraphs assigned a monetary value for all minor league prospects (based on how former prospects belonging to that tier / rank performed during the first 9 seasons of their baseball career [“including the season in which a prospect was ranked”]). These values are comparable to current major leaguers (calculated through incorporating WAR [$9 million / 1 WAR] and the cost of the player’s contract). 

The calculations for Madison Bumgarner’s surplus monetary value can be seen below…

(2.1 WAR projection [per Steamer] for 2019 * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $12 million (salary for 2019) = $18.9 million – $12 million = $6.9 million in surplus value

The chances of the Giants netting a top 100 prospect for Mad Bum are improbable, especially when you consider that Anthony Banda, who is ranked 131st on Fangraphs’ top 131 list, is worth $9 million in monetary value. The Giants would likely have to take back some salary on Bumgarner’s contract. The majority of the prospects that are excluded from Fangraphs’ top 131 list (which can be viewed at the bottom of their Update to Prospect Valuation article) are likely on the table, with the lone exceptions being position player (hitters) prospects who are graded 45+ FV (on the 20-80 scouting scale); they have a monetary value of $8 million.

New York Yankees

The Giants are bound to be interested in RHP Jonathan Loaisiga ($6 million). On the surface, his 5+ ERA in around 25 IP gives a bad impression; however, it is important to note that Loaisiga’s FIP and xFIP were 3.53 and 2.95, respectively. He also struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings and generated GBs at an above average clip (49.2%). Loaisiga’s minor league numbers in 2018 were spectacular (though they did drop off some after a promotion to AA)…

A+

• IP: 20
• K/9: 11.7
• BB/9: 0.45
• HR/9: 0
• GB%: 52%
• ERA: 1.35

AA

• IP: 34.1
• K/9: 10.49
• BB/9: 1.57
• HR/9: 1.57
• GB%: 38.7%
• ERA: 3.93

Loaisiga’s upside is that of a #3 starter, but it appears to me that he may be better utilized as a multi-inning reliever. His ERA as a SP the 1st time through the order (10 IP) is 0.90, and his ERA the 2nd time (7 IP) is 6.43.

In addition to Jonathan Loaisiga, the Giants could ask for $0.9 million or a 40 FV pitching prospect ($1 million)…

• RHP Trevor Stephan
• RHP Matt Sauer
• RHP Domingo Acevedo
• RHP Chance Adams
• RHP Garrett Whitlock
• RHP Nolan Martinez

Of the players on the list above, Domingo Acevedo would likely be the best fit. He had a 2.92 ERA in 64.2 IP at AA. His walk rate was a tad below 3 BB / 9 IP, and he struck out just over 7 batters / 9 IP. He had a solid 1.10 WHIP at AA. Acevedo’s upper 90s FB would presumably play up in the bullpen, where he is likely to land. 

The proposal we have come up with reads as follows…

The San Francisco Giants trade LHP Madison Bumgarner to the New York Yankees for RHP Jonathan Loaisiga and RHP Domingo Acevedo

Would you do this trade? Comment below.

Thanks for reading and if you're interested in reading the full article (includes what it could take for the Brewers and Mets to trade for Mad Bum), click here. Feel free to follow me on Twitter (to receives updates when I release new content) @MaxGold81356590 and make sure to check out my website (Max's Sporting Studio).

To Be a Yankee or Not To Be...

Unofficial Source points Machado to the Yankees…

Dan Clark, an Orioles blogger from Australia, caused quite a stir yesterday afternoon when he tweeted Manny Machado is headed for New York.

According to Clark, he trusts his source and stands behind his words. Ultimately, nobody really knows until Manny signs his name on the dotted line. He may want to be a Yankee as we’ve often heard and he may feel today the Yankees are his team but until the final decision is made and the agreement is in place, Manny is free to change his mind. I continue to hope Manny signs with the Yankees but honestly it continues to be my opinion that he’ll take the most money which will probably not be the Yankees regardless of how much he may have loved the team as a kid.  My hope is the Yankees make their final offer close enough that it causes Manny to accept slightly less to wear the Pinstripes. But if it is a wide gap, the Yankees had better enact Plan B immediately.

I feel bad for Clark. He has taken so much heat for his comments and people are attacking his credibility. In my opinion, that’s not fair. Does having “credentials” make a guy like Joel Sherman a better human being? No, I don’t think so. Clark has friendships with the Orioles and he is more connected to the inner workings of that organization than most Yankee insiders. I place some value in Clark’s message, but I recognize to blindly trust the words until proven correct is foolish. If he is right, great. I look forward to the introduction of Manny Machado at Yankee Stadium. If he is wrong, the world goes on and we wait for the development of Plan B to cover for the temporary loss of Didi Gregorius next season. I won’t think any less of Clark if he is proven wrong. He has expressed an opinion which is his right. He has the basis of sources that he trusts. We don’t know his sources but it’s not a reason to invalidate Clark’s words. I support his right to say whatever he wants about the Yankees or Orioles or any other team. He believes the words, right or wrong, and that’s all that really matters.  

As for Machado, the Yankee fan base seems so divided over the young superstar. I know that he failed to deliver a World Series championship for the Los Angeles Dodgers and we all know about the infamous “Johnny Hustle” comments, but last time I checked, the Red Sox rolled over all their competition last season, not just Machado’s Dodgers. I don’t blame Machado for the Dodgers’ loss. This is a team game. He is one of the best players at his position, whether it is shortstop or third base. He makes any team better and I think if he becomes a Yankee, the fan base will rally around him. At the end of the day, he’ll only want the same thing we want, a World Series championship. We’re going to boo him for that?  

In my post yesterday, I predicted Manny’s decision will come on Tuesday, January 8th.  However, that was under the assumption final offers had not been submitted. If, in fact, the Yankees, White Sox, and Phillies have submitted their best and final offers to Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, I’ll revise my decision date to Friday, January 4th. Next week should be an eventful one. We’ll see. Either way, I am glad the Machado speculation is coming to an end.  

I saw the blurb this morning in MLB Trade Rumors about the Texas Rangers and their trade of Jurickson Profar to the Oakland A’s. In the post today, Gerry Fraley, Rangers beat writer for The Dallas Morning News, is quoted as saying “The Yankees were interested in Profar as a stopgap player while Gregorius recovers but weren’t willing to give up much”. I figured the Yankees could have put together a prospect package that rivaled the one received from the A’s but this indicates the Yankees were not as sold on Profar as we thought. Fraley goes on to say Profar’s throwing problems will not be as obvious at second (he had 24 errors last season at third and shortstop) but the Yankees do not need a permanent second baseman (they already have great one) and the last thing they need is another defensively-challenged infielder. I like Profar and continue to hope he can fulfill the promise he once held as the top prospect in the game, but it sounds like the Yankees made the right decision to pass.  

The Sonny Gray to the Brewers talk seems to be picking up steam again. For Sonny, I think it would be a great opportunity. The Brewers have a good, young team and it’s obviously a winning environment right now. Sonny could prosper in Milwaukee. As for a potential return, I’ve heard Corey Knebel’s name. I know 2018 was a struggle for the Brewers’ closer and it included time in the minor leagues to find himself again, but I like Knebel and I think he’d be a good addition to the bullpen. Another potential name is first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames, but man, that would really be a pronunciation conflict with Yankees hitting coach Marcus Thames. Seriously, Thames would be a good add but it would spell the end for Greg Bird and I am not sure the Yankees are ready to break that bond yet.  

Bryan Van Dusen (@Bryan_TGP) posted this comment on Twitter this morning: “All this talk about Manny Machado, and I’m just hoping that Brett Gardner is not the regular left fielder this season. Although, I’m looking out for Clint Frazier, as I wouldn’t be surprised if he became the regular left fielder sometime during the season (assuming no Bryce)”. I agree with this 100%. There hasn’t been a lot of talk about Red Thunder and I know everyone wants to see if he can stay healthy, but I am really hoping that Frazier can grab a starting role through his performance. I think everyone loves Gardy and he has been a great Yankee but the truth is he is not the player he once was. He can still be a very good fourth outfielder but the team should not depend upon him in the starting outfield when there are better options. Frazier, clearly, can be the better option.

On MLB Network yesterday, one of their predictions for the new year was the Yankees’ acquisition of LHP Madison Bumgarner at the trading deadline.  That’s one I could really get into. I know there’s been a lot of talk and speculation about MadBum but everyone expects the Giants to try and get their best deal in July. This is one that I hope the Yankees are positioning themselves for, especially if MadBum stays healthy. The Giants love Bumgarner, but new President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi will make a decision that is in the best interests of the Giants organization for the long run. The odds MadBum will be traded are as great as they’ve ever been. I’d love to see him playing in October again.

I am so tired of the World Series highlights that are continually replayed as the end of the year approaches. Can we turn the page already? The Red Sox are so yesterday’s news.

As always, Go Yankees!