The Already Forgotten Two

Breaking news... The Yankees traded C and #1 prospect to the Seattle Mariners for RHP Michael Pineda. Did anyone else just hear about this? No? Ok enough with the sarcasm. Wait... we got Kuroda too? Ok seriously this time.

Now I personally like to think of myself as a knowledgeable kind of guy when it comes to the Yankees prospects. I have even been referred to as a "prospect" humper in some circles on the forum that I am a member of, Daily Sports Pages. Just because I have a thread for almost every prospect that I constantly update and just because I don't really want to trade ANY of the prospects that are actually worth trading does this really make me a prospect humper? Maybe... but I digress.

There were apparently two other players involved in the Montero for Pineda swap. One was Yankees RHP Hector Noesi and the other was Seattle's RHP Jose Campos. I personally think that the Montero for Pineda trade was an equal trade, an oddity in major league baseball. The Yankees needed pitching and got a great power pitcher that misses a lot of bats at age 23 and under 5 years team control. The Mariners got a young, cheap, impact hitter that they needed at a premium position. The way the Yankees win this trade, in my prospect humping opinion, is with the "forgotten" two in this trade.

At the beginning of the offseason we heard a lot of talk about patience from Brian Cashman. Wrapped up in that talk was Cashman's willingness to ONLY use Noesi as a starter this season followed by great claims and comparisons to Noesi being "this year's Ivan Nova." I think a lot of us got excited to think we had another potentially young and dominant young starter to come from our minor league system. The rest of us called "bull" and waited anxiously to see what kind of trade that Brian Cashman was working on while he was trying to build up Noesi's trade value. Obviously those of us waited to see a Winter and GM Meetings trade, not a trade in the middle of January, but hey we have to take it when it comes, right?

Hector Noesi was not bad for us by any means, and Jose Campos is only 19 years old and in A ball so its not like we will be seeing dividends from him any time soon, but I still think the Yankees pulled one out of their hats with this trade. Again, Noesi was not bad for us by any means but he wasn't exactly special either. On a crowded 40 man roster including DJ Mitchell, David Phelps, Dellin Betances, George Kontos, and recent Rule 5 draft picks Brad Meyers and Cesar Cabral, Hector Noesi simply became replaceable. Not to mention that we had 6 pitchers for 5 spots competing down in Scranton for the AAA rotation including Adam Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, Noesi, Betances, and Manny Banuelos. It is tough to judge Noesi by his 56 innings in the majors but he is 24 years old and will be 25 when the season starts. Noesi misses enough bats to be successful with 7 K's per 9 IP last season, again with a small sample size. Matching that with 3.5 walks per 9IP doesn't look good and neither does a .331 BABIP. He does have a 40% ground ball rate but a 10% HR/FB rate and neither of them are actually very good. This will all be better when he goes from a hitters park in the Bronx to a pitchers park in Seattle's Safeco. That is why you see pitchers who throw sinker balls like Chein Ming Wang and Ivan Nova, to name a few, be so successful in New York. Noesi's stuff does not mesh well with the stadium he has been pitching in. Not to mention that the Yankees already have 3 more Hector Noesi's already in AAA just waiting and rotting.

Now, on to Jose Campos. I personally, and a lot of my twitter followers, are already putting Campos at #5 on our prospect list in between NYPL OF Mason Williams and GCL 3B Dante Bichette Jr. Jose Campos is 19 years old and is the very definition of a power pitcher. Campos is an extreme strike thrower with an above average fastball touching 95 mph. To go with that he has an inconsistent, but above average slider. Campos showed this season that his hard curveball and changeup show flashes of becoming "plus pitches." Count them... Plus Plus fastball with nice angle, deception, and life. Plus Plus slider, and potentially a plus curve and changeup usually equals a fantastic top of the line starting pitcher. He has yet to pitch a full season yet so he is 3-5 years away but has more upside and potential then any current Yankees minor league pitcher not donned with the nickname "Killer B." Jose Campos has a nice frame for such a power pitcher coming in at 6'4" and 195 lbs. Naturally you worry about repeating his delivery and injuries at that size , and they are legit concerns with ANY young pitcher, but that is just what they are at this point... concerns. Nothing concrete to back any of them up yet so that is encouraging.

The biggest concern in the Montero for Pineda trade was that we have plenty of Noesi's but no more Montero's currently in our system, which is true. We don't have any Jose Campos in our system in my opinion either. Dellin Betances struggles too much with his fastball command, although making up for it with his high strike out numbers, to be considered what Campos could be. Manny Banuelos is there with Campos in projections and ceilings but I did not include him because he is left handed. Jose Campos, if he reaches his potential, will be much better then Hector Noesi. To go out on a limb he could be much better then Ivan Nova for that matter. To reiterate, we have 3 more Hector Noesi's JUST in AAA but we don't have ANY Jose Campos in Low A Charleston where he looks like he is going, and we don't have ANY Jose Campos in High A, and we don't have ANY Jose Campos in AA, and we don't look like we will have ANY Jose Campos in AAA when he gets there. When Campos is expected to reach the majors we wont have Jesus Montero, and we presumably wouldn't have had Hector Noesi.... but we will still have Michael Pineda under team control... for cheap.

Damon at DH?

How about a reunion? Well, how about not?

Okay, looking back on it, my idea of trading for McCutchen is not "all that". In fact, it's closer to being in the category of "sucks" than it does being in the category of "good" or even "plausible". I remembered that the Phillies took a group of prospects for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle, but I forgot that Abreu was making $28 million after that 2005 season in which he came to New York (not including his club option of $16 million in 2008, which the Yankees picked up). Perhaps I should stay away from trade proposals. Then again, they can be fun to think about, so I'm not making any promises.

But the DH situation still needs to be addressed. And what I'm reading lately has me scratching my head, as many Yankee fans would love to see Johnny Damon return to the Bronx. I don't get it, and I'm hoping Brian Cashman is as smart as I think he is.

Damon hit .261/.326/.418 last season, with 16 HRs and 19 SBs. His OPS+ of 110 suggests that he is an above average hitter, and he did that in the AL East so there's no reason to expect a large drop-off in those numbers. But the fact of the matter is the guy made $5.25 million (that doesn't include incentives, which could have brought his salary to as high as $6 million), and with the Yankees payroll hovering around $212 million after the Kuroda signing, I see no reason to spend like that on Johnny. Not when the offense is already a strength, even as is, and the team already has good to decent alternatives. Oh, and Johnny Damon is nearly worthless in the field. Last season he played in 84 innings at LF, to a UZR/150 of -15.6. The year before Johnny only played 268.1 innings in the OF for Detroit. So at this point he'd really be another Jorge Posada... a DH only. Why would the Yankees want to blow a roster spot on that?

Andruw Jones hit .286/.384/.540 against left-handed pitchers last season, so he's pretty much a no-brainer to DH against lefties. As for what he did against same-sided pitching... yeah, I'd rather not go there. Let's just say he shouldn't bat against righties. Cool?

Jorge Vazquez is somebody else that could see some at bats as the team's DH in 2012. I was hoping to see what his splits looked like last season, particularly against left and right-handed pitchers, but I couldn't find anything after 2010. In that season though he actually showed a reverse split, as his BA, OBP, and SLG were all better against same-sided hurlers (.263/.317/.516). I don't know much about the Minor League Equivalency calculator at ML Splits, but I plugged in Jorge's numbers from last season and it tells me to expect a line of .227/.274/.427... not an encouraging sign. Perhaps if that calculator could give splits as well. *shrugs* But as for defense, he could give Teixeira rests from the field, as Jorge was a decent 1B in the minors.

I'm not big on the idea of bringing back Eric Chavez, as he wasn't anything special last year and his health record is far from stellar. Also, if you look at what he did versus right-handers (assuming Jones does DH against lefties) you'll see a line of .255/.322/.365. Seeing that I'd rather roll with Vazquez against right-handed pitchers. The only true plus to adding Chavez would be to give ARod a rest at 3B, although Nunez did appear in 33 games there in 2011.

Then we've heard about Carlos Pena. Here's a guy whose batting average over the last three years was .216. The only thing nice about Carlos' numbers recently is his HR total. But let's be honest... the Yankees don't need anymore power. Especially if it would cost anywhere near the $10 million it cost Tampa to sign him last year (it wouldn't, but it's not like Pena would sign a deal like Chavez did last season either). I should be fair though, as his career OBP of .352 is nothing to sneeze at. But again.. a hitter with power that gets on base a lot? The Yankee lineup does not need that at all. They could really use a guy with a good batting average, so if they are going to look outside the organization I think they should look away Carlos.

I'd be totally cool with trying guys out on minor league deals, like the Yanks did last year with Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. Although I wouldn't expect to find a diamond in the rough like they did with Freddy and Bartolo anyway. At this point I think they should try out guys already "in house", and make a move later if necessary.

Now, what about DH?

Welcome to New York, Mr. Pineda.

The Montero-Pineda trade? Love it. The Kuroda pick-up? Great. Now let's move on.

Last night there was plenty of speculation about what the Yankees would do in regards to the hole left at DH. I read some rumors about their interest in Carlos Pena (no thanks, the team could use a guy that hits for a good average, not a low average with power), and this morning there was something about a possible David Robertson for Mark Trumbo swap (an absolutely ridiculous idea if you ask me). I suppose the Yankees could make the DH slot a revolving door by using Andruw Jones against lefties, giving ARod some rest by starting him their once or twice a week, and possibly Eric Chavez the rest of the time. Not a horrible idea, but I would think Ninja Cashman could do better. Which leads me to a trade idea.

Yes, most trade ideas tend to suck. My ideas, including this one, probably aren't much bettter, but hear me out...

Now seems to be the best time to think about getting somebody that could not only fit into the lineup now, but also take over for Nick Swisher in 2013 and beyond. I was thinking about replacing Nick after this season, but with the hole that was created by the Montero-Pineda trade now seems to be the time. We'll start by taking a look at the depth of the Yankees' system, in terms of good/great young talent...

Pitcher - Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Jose Campos (the link will give you some info on Jose, and the trade that brought him to NY), Adam Warren, David Phelps, DJ Mitchell, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes

Outfield - Mason Williams, Ravel Santana, Slade Heathcott, Jorge Vazquez, Jordan Parraz

Catcher - Gary Sanchez, JR Murphy, Austin Romine

I'd say that's pretty deep, especially at pitcher. Which is why I'm not nearly as concerned as others at the loss of Hector Noesi in that Montero-Pineda trade (not to mention we got a pretty good pitching prospect in Jose Campos too... why are people concerned about that again?). So I looked around to try and find a team that could use some help in all three of those areas, and had an outfielder that would be attractive as well. I landed in Pittsburgh.

For starters, the only catching prospect in the Top 10 of the Pirates' system is Tony Sanchez. Well Tony is coming off of a horrible season at AA Altoona, where he put up a triple-slash of .241/.340/.318. Not that he has no future, as he'll be entering his age 24 season and saw success in the low minors (.314/.416/.454 in A+ ball in 2010), but if Pittsburgh could get another catching prospect then I'm sure they'd be interested. Especially if that catching prospect was able to start in MLB right away.

As for the Pirates' pitching they could use help too. Paul Maholm is a free agent after having the 2nd best ERA out of their starters last season, James McDonald and Kevin Correia were below average, Charlie Morton had a nice ERA but a poor WHIP led him to be average, while Jeff Karstens (who Pittsburgh got from New York) was easily their best starter. They just drafted Gerrit Cole so he's years away, and their #2 pitching prospect (Cole is 1st), Jameson Taillon, is only 20 years old and was in A ball last year... therefore he too is a few years away. So I know they'd be interested in acquiring a young pitcher that could help the rotation right away.

What about outfielders? Well Jose Tabata was injured for 71 games last season, starting with a quad strain that was apparently healed as he returned in mid-August and played without reaggravating it. Jose fractured a bone in his hand at the end of the season, but it was said at the time that he'd return in 10 days, so I don't believe it was major in any way. Their rightfielder was Garrett Jones, who did not impress much, putting up a triple-slash of .243/.321/.433. That's not horrible (he did hit 16 HR as well), but I'm sure the Pirates are looking forward to seeing what Starling Marte can do in MLB. Marte was in AA Altoona last season, where he put up a line of .332/.370/.500. Starling is probably only a year or two away, and since Pitt won't be competing next season, I'm sure they can wait on him.

This brings us to the man of the hour... Andrew McCutchen. I don't think I have to spend much time talking about Andrew, and what he could bring to the team. He turned 25 last October, and his triple-slash estimates are somewhere around .277/.370/.460, to go with 20 HR and around 20 SB. I believe he has 4 more years of team control left as well.

There were whispers back in November about listening to offers for McCutchen, although they were followed up with talk of re-entering extension talks. Keith Law suggested that the Pirates would have to be "blown away" by an offer, and I think I may have that offer.

Jorge Vazquez/Dellin Betances/Austin Romine/Adam Warren for Andrew McCutchen/Kyle McPherson (pitcher, #6 prospect in organization according to Baseball America)

Vazquez isn't the best outfield prospect the Yankees could offer, but he's MLB-ready and can bring much more power to the team than any other Pirate offered last season (McCutchen led the team with 23 HRs, and the next best was that 16 by Garrett Jones). Both Betances and Warren could fit into the rotation right away (replacing McDonald or Correia, along with Maholm), and Romine could start catching right away in place of last year's guy in Pittsburgh... Michael McKenry (he hit a measly .222/.276/.322).

The only question that would remain after this deal is "what do they do with Swisher?" Well that one's easy... move him to DH, along with giving him some starts at 1B to rest Mark Teixeira. This would allow the Yankees to pass on Eric Chavez, thus saving a bit of money, as Nunez could handle backing up ARod. And more importantly the starting lineup, along with the starting rotation, would be set.

Yankees Also Sign Hiroki Kuroda To 1 Year Deal

Via Jack Curry on YES, the Yankees have signed Hiroki Kuroda on a 1 year deal worth 10-11 million dollars. Here is the write up 

JackCurryYES Jack Curry 

Big night for the Yankees. They have agreed to a 1-year deal with Kuroda, pending a physical. Deal will be between $10 and $11 million.

In a matter of an hour the Yankees rotation went from

CC

Nova

Garcia

Burnett

Hughes

to 

CC

Pineda

Nova

Kuroda

Garcia/Burnett

Montero & Noesi Traded For Pineda & Campos

According to MLBTR

The Yankees have traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Seattle Mariners for Jose Campo and Michael Pineda. Here is there write up:

Mariners, Yankees Swap Pineda For MonteroBy Mark Polishuk [January 13, 2012 at 6:51pm CST]
6:51pm: The deal is Pineda and Jose Campos for Montero and Hector Noesi, a source tellsMLB.com's Greg Johns (Twitter link).
6:43pm: The Mariners and Yankees have agreed to a trade that will send Michael Pineda to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The trade involves more than just those two players, Heyman adds (both links via Twitter).

This obviously ends all talks and speculations with Roy Oswalt, Hiroki Kuroda, Edwin Jackson, Bartolo Colon, and all the other rental starting pitchers the Yankees have either been linked to or expressed interest in.

Express your content for finally having that #2 starter or your discontent for giving up on the biggest prospect we have had come through our system in a long time HERE

There is bound to be a LOT of people that feel strongly for this trade either way. I would love to hear your reaction.

Do they need a better rotation?

I like crunching numbers, and the vast majority of talk this off-season for the Yankees has had to do with improving the rotation. I've been an advocate of making a move, preferably a one-year deal for Hiroki Kuroda, in order to do just that. But does the rotation need to improve?

I took a look at Bill James' predictions in order to try and shed some light on that question. Now, I know, Bill's predictions are not gospel. Some would say they're worthless. But what's the worst that can happen? I waste an hour of my life? Well, that's okay. My time right now isn't all that valuable anyway.

Here's what the top five starters, in terms of most games started, did last season...

Name	IP	ER	ERA
CC Sabathia	237.1	79	3.00
AJ Burnett	190.1	109	5.15
Ivan Nova	165.1	68	3.70
Bartolo Colon	164.1	73	4.00
Freddy Garcia	146.2	59	3.62

All of that is good for a total ERA of 3.86. Now here are Bill James' predictions for what would most likely be the starting rotation next season...

Name	IP	ER	ERA
CC Sabathia	235	87	3.33
Ivan Nova	183	87	4.28
Freddy Garcia	144	68	4.25
Phil Hughes	102	42	3.71
AJ Burnett	173	83	4.32

First thing's first, I'd say that Hughes and Burnett both have higher ERAs. But CC, Ivan, and Freddy all had lower ERAs last year than they are predicted this year, so who knows? Honestly, I feel pretty sure that Phil and AJ won't pitch that well, but screw it. Let's go with those numbers anyway.

The total ERA for next season's five starters would be 3.95, a difference of .09 between 2011 and 2012. If Yankee starters threw 977 innings like they did last season, then that would only be a difference of about 10 runs over the season. Well add those 10 runs to last seasons runs allowed, and you'll find a differential of 200... which would still be the best in Major League Baseball.

So does the rotation really need an improvement? No. But that's if you believe Bill James. For comparison's sake ZiPS projections have Phil Hughes at an ERA of 4.84, while AJ Burnett's ERA is 5.31. Going by ZiPS projections then I'd say that the rotation does need to improve. But I wanted to show that according to some there is no need to spend another $12 million or so on Hiroki Kuroda, and certainly no need to spend about the same amount for Edwin Jackson... only for 3 or so years.

One Year or Bust

Just in from MLBTR...

Steinbrenner hasn't yet approved a significant payroll boost, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Sherman's Twitter). It would be a one-year deal or nothing if Jackson signs in New York, even though the Yankees' baseball operations staff likes the right-hander. It appears likely that the Yankees will sign a starter like Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda orBartolo Colon in Sherman's view.

It wouldn't be the first time we saw a player, who is worthy of a multi-year deal, opting to sign for one year and go for a multi-year deal again the following season... when the market is better (Ryan Madsen, anyone?). But unless a number of players sign extensions, thus avoiding free agency, then the market next year would actually be worse for a guy like Edwin looking for more than a one year deal. For that reason I don't see a one year deal for Edwin Jackson coming, therefore I'm not expecting to see him in Yankee pinstripes.

But hearing that the Yankees are sticking with a one year deal makes me a very happy fan. Although Edwin would improve the Yankee rotation in 2012, I don't think it will be enough to justify a multi-year deal... which could keep the team from signing Hamels or others a year from now.

The Cuban OFers

River Avenue Blues posted an article regarding Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. It's been a while since we've heard about either player, but this month both of them should be made available as free agents.

In the past I've expressed a desire to sign Cespedes, and I stand by that today. As for Soler I'm not so sure, as he'd be yet another outfield prospect in the low minors, along with Mason Williams, Ravel Santana, and Slade Heathcott. Although it wouldn't be a bad thing at all to have another big-time prospect.

So all in all I say "get greedy" and sign both.

Patience is not a bad word

Listen to Axl. All we need is just a little patience.

Some Yankee fans have expressed their displeasure with the Yankees not improving. It's not necessarily because they believe the Yanks have to improve, but it's because others around them are. Which is a reasonable stance to take.

For one, the Red Sox were in a great position in 2011 to win the AL East before taking a major nose-dive, and it would be down-right insane to expect something like that to happen again. And you have to believe Carl Crawford will improve after putting up the worst batting average and on-base percentage of his career, second-worst slugging percentage since 2003 (his 1st full season in MLB), his lowest SB output since 2002 when he only played in 63 games, etc. And it's not like he was putting up better numbers in a different division, as he's spent his entire 10 year career in the AL East. Then there's the fact that Kevin Youkilis (a guy that I don't like, but will admit is good) and JD Drew each missed a large portion of the season. The Sox still have work to do on their rotation, which is even more questionable than the Yankees current crop of starters, but they too are in on guys such as Hiroki Kuroda.

The Rays were 6 games worse than the Bombers last season, yet they still won 91 games. But remember that Matt Moore only started 1 game for them last season, and his presence in the starting rotation all season will have a nice impact for sure. I'm not sure about Jeff Niemenn's back, but a full year out of him, holding down the back-end of the rotation with Jeremy Hellickson, will round out a very nice starting rotation. I do question the Rays offense though, as they scored the least amount of runs in the division in 2011 (707), and bringing in Luke Scott doesn't exactly make it any better.

The Toronto Blue Jays aren't going away quietly either. If they can find a way to better their run prevention, then I could definitely see them finishing 3rd in the division, and battle it out for the 2nd Wild Card berth next season. The Jays major concern when it came to giving up runs was their bullpen, which owner Alex Anthopoulos has done a good job of improving after bringing in Darren Oliver and Sergio Santos, as well as bringing back Jason Frasor. Not that their starters are all set, as they could use an improvement at the bottom where Jo-Jo Reyes and Kyle Drabek put up ERAs of 5.40 and 6.06 respectively. If Dustin McGowan, who is finally coming back after 3+ years with major shoulder issues, can be more like what we saw in 2007 and 2008, that would certainly help. And the Jays were in rumor talks regarding Matt Garza. Although that's cooled off quite a bit, it shows that Anthopoulos may not be finished.

And then there are the Yankees.... what have they done this off-season? Well, first and foremost, they brought back CC Sabathia, who was only days away from being a free agent. The Yanks also picked up the team option on Nick Swisher, which wasn't as much a no-brainer as bringing back CC was, but the idea of Beltran replacing Swish was not a great one anyway. That was followed by bringing back Freddy Garcia and Andruw Jones. There have been little things like signing Don Mattingly's son, Preston, to a minor league deal too. But I think the biggest change is going to be Jesus Montero being the full-time DH, in place of Jorge Posada. Bill James is predicting a triple-slash of .289/.351/.505 for Jesus, which is a slight upgrade from the triple-slash of 235/.315/.398 that Posada put up last year. Of course things would get better if Alex Rodriguez can give the team at least 130 games too (he only played in 99 in 2011). But nothing has really changed on the team from the end of last season. 8 of the 9 spots in the lineup are going to be the same, 4 of the 5 rotation spots will be filled by the same guys (Hughes will likely take Colon's spot), the bullpen is pretty much exactly the same (even moreso now that Corey Wade will be back), and even the bench has changed very little.

Whlie I believe the Yankees don't have to do anything more in order to compete for another division title, and to make a run at a 28th World Series victory, it would make things much simpler if they did (not that it would actually be simple no matter what). I'd sure has hell feel better if they were able to get a pitcher that could easily slot into the #2 or #3 spot. All in all though this comes down to the impatience of New Yorkers, and New York Yankees fans. We're certainly not used to seeing a team that's used the term "budget" when it comes to weighing free agent signings. But this is the way things are now, and I... for one.. am happy to see it. Caring about spending money now may allow the team to have the killer pitching duo of CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels in 2013 and beyond.

OMG! Edwin Jackson!

You can't go anywhere on the internet that has anything to do with the Yankees and not read about Hal Steinbrenner's meeting with Scott Boras, in regards to Edwin Jackson. I was going to hold off so that Greedy Pinstripes was the only place where you wouldn't have to deal with this "news", but I couldn't stop myself.

Look, this doesn't mean it's going to happen. Is it more likely? Yes. But I don't think this is much different than when Cashman checked in on Albert Pujols. It's due diligence. The Yankees haven't done anything to improve the rotation compared to last season, Edwin is still available, so check it out. Maybe his price has dropped so far that it would be silly to pass him up.

One thing to remember here... Scott came to Hal, not the other way around. Hal was in Phoenix for the baseball owners meeting. If it were the other way around I would change my tune, but until the Yankees go to Boras or Jackson for something then I'm not about to get excited or get my boxers in a bunch.