Better With D-Rob Than Without...

Please do not D-ROB Peter to pay Paul…

More and more people are clamoring for David Robertson to be traded to free up salary room to make a big splash to reel in Yu Darvish or Mike Moustakas (on top of the huge acquisition to add slugger Giancarlo Stanton). For the record, I am not in favor of trading D-Rob. 

I get it. Robertson will cost $11.5 million for luxury tax purposes but the guy is such a huge part of the Yankees bullpen. I was so glad when the Yankees reacquired Robertson last summer. I haven’t felt that type of excitement since Andy Pettitte came back from three years in Houston. One of my favorite Yankees coming home. D-Rob carries the Andrew Miller attitude…whatever it takes. Both men value the team ahead of the individual and are willing to pitch whenever, wherever. I trust Robertson more than any other member of the bullpen to close on the days that Aroldis Chapman is not available.  

Dellin Betances can be the most devastating reliever in the game, but as we’ve seen, his 6’8” frame can also get out of whack, making him very hittable. The last couple of years, he has faded down the stretch. D-Rob may not always win, but he’s a strong competitor every time he takes the mound.  

I am bummed that we are in the last year of D-Rob’s contract. I am hopeful the Yankees either re-sign Robertson after the season or make a huge play to bring back Andrew Miller, who will also be a free agent after the 2018 season.  

But for the 2018 season, I cannot imagine the Yankees bullpen without David Robertson. 

To me, it makes more sense to trade Brett Gardner. But every pro-trade Robertson article I’ve read, talks about how invaluable Gardy is to the clubhouse. I understand those intangibles, but time and again, the Yankees have had to replace strong clubhouse leaders. Team leadership did not dry up when Derek Jeter walked out of the Stadium for the final time. If Gardy leaves, another guy (or guys) will step up to fill the void. From purely a player aspect, D-Rob is more valuable to the bullpen than Gardy is to the outfield given the plethora of other younger outfield options.  

The enigma on the current roster construction is Jacoby Ellsbury and his suffocating contract. The New York Post speculates that the Yankees might have to include as much as $50 million on the contract to move Ellsbury once the current market depletes itself of better outfield options. It’s not like Ellsbury suddenly became Pablo Sandoval. He is still a good player, but he doesn’t fit on the 2018 Yankees. Hopefully GM Brian Cashman will astound us all by finding a way to move Ellsbury’s contract sooner rather than later.

This situation bears watching over the next few weeks but hopefully when the team takes the field for the 2018 season, #30 is on the Yankees roster.  

Photo Credit:  MLB.com

A familiar Foe…

The Toronto Blue Jays grabbed a potential infield option for the Yankees yesterday when they acquired former Yankee Yangervis Solarte from the San Diego Padres. Solarte lost his job at third base when the Padres reacquired Chase Headley. With an ability to play both second and third, Solarte would have been a good option for the Yankees to back the Gleyber Torres/Miguel Andujar youth movement.  

Photo Credit:  Lenny Ignelzi-AP

Mayans MC, Opening Soon at a TV near you…

In a bit of non-baseball news, I have to plug an upcoming TV series. FX announced this past week that they’ve given a 10-episode series order for Mayans MC. Mayans MC, a spin-off of the highly successful Sons of Anarchy, is “set in a post-Jax Teller world, where EZ Reyes (JD Pardo), fresh out of prison, is a prospect in the Mayan MC charter on the Cali/Mexi border.  Now EZ must carve out his new outlaw identity in a town where he once was the golden boy who had the American Dream within his grasp.” The new series, which is set to premiere either this summer or late fall, is co-created by Kurt Sutter and Elgin James. The show will feature an almost all-Latino cast. Sons of Anarchy star Emilio Rivera (reprising the role of Mayans MC President Marcus Alvarez) headlines the strong cast that also features Pardo and Edward James Olmos.  

I am very excited about the potential of the new TV series, and look forward to Sutter’s latest vision. Also, hats off to Glendale Harley-Davidson of Glendale, CA. They have been instrumental in helping the cast members of the new show. I bought my own Harley at Glendale H-D a few years ago and I very proud of this dealership.  

Let’s Ride!

Steinbrenner Field, Opening Sooner…

In theory, the upcoming week should bring more baseball news to the table. The holidays are over, and training camps open in a little more than a month. I expect to see in increase in free agents signings which should loosen up the trade market. It’s been 20 years since the Yankees won 125 games enroute to the 1998 World Series championship. I am not saying that the 2018 team will be as great, but this team has the potential to be something special if Brian Cashman continues to make the right moves. It’s time to bring the championship back to the Bronx!

Go Yankees!

Ready, Set, Stall...

The Most Boring Off-Season Ever…

It’s kind of funny to say that this has been one of the slowest Hot Stove Leagues in recent memory, especially when your team acquires the best slugger on the planet, but I can’t remember the last time the majority of the top free agents were unsigned in January.

The Yankees never figured to be big players in the free agent market, given their desire to keep the ‘Alex Rodriguez-freed’ payroll under the luxury tax threshold of $197 million for reset purposes. But then the Los Angeles Dodgers made their big salary relief trade with the Atlanta Braves which gave them the same opportunity as the Yankees to reset their luxury tax rate so you have baseball’s two biggest spenders on the sidelines.  

My personal hope is that the slow free agent market leads Todd Frazier back to Pinstripes where he belongs. Of course, rumors circulated yesterday that the Yankees had been back in touch with the Baltimore Orioles about third baseman Manny Machado. I am not convinced the Orioles would trade their best player to the Yankees despite his impending free agency, but conversely, I am not sure the Yankees should give up some of their best prospects for a guy they could sign as a free agent next fall. I wouldn’t want to give the O’s the bullets to reload. But then again, if the O’s make a trade this winter, they’ll bring in quality talent from somewhere. As long as Machado is on the table, it probably keeps any potential deal with Todd Frazier on ice (no pun intended for those of you in New York and New Jersey).  

Mark Prior has found his way to the Los Angeles Dodgers as their new bullpen coach, replacing Josh Bard who decided to take a seat on the Yankees bench next to new manager Aaron Boone. The Yankees’ one-time top draft pick (he didn’t sign in 1998) and former Chicago Cub was most recently the minor league pitching coordinator for his hometown San Diego Padres. Prior attempted to make the transition to a relief pitcher in the Yankees organization during the 2011 season but could never capture the potential that was once promised to him through a series of arm injuries. I hope that he finds greater success with his coaching career.  

Some teams have been very active with minor league contract signings carrying training camp invitations, but until yesterday, the Yankees had been quiet. It changed when they signed former Atlanta Braves infielder Jace Peterson to a minor league deal on Friday. Peterson has a high pedigree (he was once a first-round draft selection for the San Diego Padres) but he’s never been able to hit in the Major Leagues. He found his way to the Braves for the 2015 season but underwhelmed the team as its starting second baseman that year. The career .234 hitter was released by the Braves last month when he was non-tendered in advance of arbitration. I can’t see him as more than training camp fodder and help with the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, but you can never have enough competition for Major League jobs. Good luck to Peterson as he attempts to find his place with his third MLB organization. New coaches, new scenery….who knows, crazier things have happened. In a bit of irony, Peterson made his MLB debut during the 2014 season when former and now current Padres third baseman Chase Headley was placed on the DL. Peterson seems like this year’s Pete Kozma signing to me. If he could only hit, he looks like a version of Austin Romine’s brother Andrew with an ability to play multiple positions.

Jace, just a note, please don’t scratch the big guy…

Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Post ran an article a couple of days ago indicating that GM Brian Cashman is prepared to go into the season with youngsters at second and third, meaning Gleyber Torres (or Tyler Wade) and Miguel Andujar. I still find it difficult to believe that the Yankees would entrust both critical positions to youth and inexperience (at the MLB level) at the same time. The Post article included Cashman’s words “if the market changes, we’re prepared to adjust” which shows that this is just a waiting game and Cashman is hoping for prices to fall.  

I am excited about Gleyber Torres and the future of second base in his hands. I’ve seen so many say that he should open the season as the starting second baseman. For as much as I love the guy, the Yankees MUST delay the start of his MLB service time to pick up an additional year before he hits free agency.  That only means that he’ll spend a few weeks in Moosic, PA focusing on solely the nuances of second base before hitting the main stage in the Bronx. It will be well worth the wait for so many reasons. At this point, it’s just fine-tuning but for a guy coming off Tommy John surgery, even a position player with his non-throwing arm, a few weeks in Triple A would be beneficial. In the interim, Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Wade deserve the opportunity to keep the position warm for Torres.

Photo Credit: Andrew Savulich-NY Post

The guys over at NJ Advance Media for NJ.com do a great job covering the Yankees. Randy Miller posted a column today featuring a scout’s take on top Yankees prospects. It is well worth the read. As a huge fan of pitching prospect Albert Abreu, I thought the scout’s take on the young right-hander was excellent: “I love him. You’re going to like this kid. I saw him in the Fall League. He was throwing 91-97. He sat 94. He’ll show you a plus curveball at times that is tight with depth. His changeup needs some refinement, but it has a chance to be a plus pitch in the future. He’s aggressive. He gets swings and misses. He’s pretty good with a good body. And he’s a good makeup kid. His delivery gets out of whack at times and it affects his stuff. When he stays square and direct to the plate and he’s working downhill, he’s good. I give him a chance to be a No. 3 starter, a middle-of-the-rotation type guy. If everything comes, he has an outside chance to be a No. 2 starter. Based on what I’ve seen, I like him better than Chance Adams.” I know that Justus Sheffield is going to be a great Yankee, but the scout’s last line about Abreu is the very reason that I’d gladly give up Chance Adams in a trade for a proven MLB starting pitcher. I am very high on Abreu and I am excited about his future in pinstripes.  

It’s such a great time to be young and a Yankee for so many of these guys. Who wants to join?…

Photo Credit: Getty Images

Go Yankees!

The Patrick Corbin “Nugget” You May Have Missed

If you don’t know what a “nugget” is, and I didn’t either until I started reading and conversing with my friend Robert Casey of Bleeding Yankee Blue, a nugget is a small piece of information that is usually or possibly overlooked by many writers and journalists. Without getting too far off topic and off base I will say that today’s journalism, or lack thereof, is the reason I got into blogging and writing professionally. It doesn’t matter to many if it’s right, accurate or well thought out as long as it’s released first. Why? Views, clicks, and money. I have no issue with people making their money and earning their paychecks, I just chose to do things differently and that’s ok. I have never had ads and money-making schemes on my site and I will vow to keep it that way. With that said, as I digress, let’s get back to this nugget that isn’t being talked about in many places that I’ve seen. The nugget has to do with the Arizona Diamondbacks and left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin.

The Yankees have been linked to Corbin this offseason and while talks between the two clubs never seemingly went very far I truly believe that is because of the market and not because the two teams weren’t a great match in a trade. Reading an article by Steve Gilbert on MLB.com who conducted an interview with Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen the subject of potentially trading either Corbin or Zack Greinke came up which immediately interested me. While I am not interested in Greinke and his bulky salary I think Corbin would be a great fit in the Bronx, even with his projected $8.3 million in arbitration salary according to MLB Trade Rumors.

In the article and interview Gilbert states that the Diamondbacks are looking for a potential long-term option at the catcher position and outfield depth in any trade for Corbin, Greinke and any pieces that could potentially go with those two quality pitchers. It seems to me that the Yankees have both and are in a position of power to trade from both, especially considering that Corbin has one-year of team control thus seemingly keeping his cost down a bit.

In my opinion the Yankees could acquire Corbin and still hold onto Clint Frazier. Including Austin Romine or Kyle Higashioka along with a Jake Cave or Billy McKinney plus a lower-level pitching prospect or two could probably get Corbin alone. If the Yankees also wanted to try and pry away Brandon Drury in the deal then Frazier could be included to sweeten the deal, although I have made it very clear my preference is to hold onto Frazier this offseason. Maybe that’s the fan in me speaking but maybe it is also someone who has watched baseball for over 20 years speaking as well. I have especially paid attention to the rise and fall, the triumphs and the fails, of various prospects coming through the Yankees system and I really just think Frazier has all the makings of being something special.

I think the fact that we haven’t seen much movement in the Corbin sweepstakes is not because the Yankees aren’t willing to part with the pieces needed to acquire the lefty or because the Diamondbacks don’t want to trade him, I just think everyone is reluctant to make that move with pitchers like Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish still on the market. Once these pieces start to move I think Corbin will ultimately be dealt, Cashman is just lying in the weeds waiting for his time to strike. There’s more coming Yankees family and New York’s GM isn’t done. Now is just the time for patience, as hard as that is for some of us to do. Stay warm, be patient and Go Yankees!!

Oh, and I know. My trade proposal sucks. Leave your “better” one in the comments section. 

Oh, and I know I said I didn't think the Yankees needed another pitcher in a previous post. I stand by that and I still don't think the Yankees NEED another starter. It seems though, if you believe all the rumors you read, that Brian Cashman thinks otherwise hence the idea and trade proposal for Corbin. I'd be just as happy heading into Spring Training camp with what the team already has, although I would never pass up an opportunity to Get Greedy either.

Get Greedy, Get Corbin. 

The Miami Marlins and Quite the Opposite of “Getting Greedy”

photo credit to the Miami Herald

Blame the slow offseason and hot stove market but yeah, I am going to talk about the Miami Marlins this morning. Any baseball talk is better than nothing at this point, at least I am hoping so, especially when we can throw in a Derek Jeter reference or two while we are at it. The reason I want to talk about the Marlins this morning is not because of the Giancarlo Stanton trade that brought the reigning National League MVP to the Bronx, or another trade for that matter, but is because Mr. Jeter is letting me down right now if I am being completely honest. Derek Sanderson Jeter is not “Getting Greedy” but is, in fact, doing quite the opposite of that.

Now I am being a bit sarcastic in the first paragraph and in the title of this post admittedly, but I do want to talk about the projected payroll of the Marlins going forward and the basic “promise” that the team would turn a profit here in 2018. How can Jeter make such a statement after trading or attempting to trade anything with a pulse that isn’t tied down? Easily, actually. Every Major League team will receive, or have already received, a one-time lump sum of $50 million after Disney acquired BAMTech, a figure I got from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.

Jeter and the Marlins expect their payroll to be around or under the $90 million mark in 2018 with the figure dropping to $81 million in 2019 and $84.8 million in 2020 according to the same article from Jackson, although obviously a lot can change between now and the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Of course, Miami is going to turn a profit, the team only has to make $40 million in sales and revenue in 2018 to turn a profit, and that number is only that high with the salaries of Edinson Volquez ($9 million), Brad Ziegler ($9 million), Junichi Tazawa ($7 million), Christian Yelich ($7 million), Starlin Castro (10.857 million) and J.T. Realmuto (third year of arbitration) currently on the roster. If any or all of these men are traded that number becomes increasingly smaller.

Jeter went out and called his shot saying the team would make a profit, good for him. This is a business first-and-foremost and the ultimate goal, despite what George Steinbrenner would say if he were alive right now, is to make money. The old days of operating in the red, buying up anything and everything on the free agent market and winning 100 games a season are over. I just want everyone to have all the information available to them before once again anointing Mr. Jeter for another job well done. Here’s to Mr. November, Mr. December and his ownership group down in Miami. I hope you do well, the city and the organization need it and definitely deserve it. Stay well. 

Oh, and that makes me wonder what Hal and company are doing with that $50 million. Hmm....

‘Much Ado About Nothing’ in the Yankees Universe…

Continuing to hear (frozen) crickets at Yankee Stadium…

We’ve made it into the New Year, but it’s still as quiet as a mouse in the Yankees Universe.

I cannot say that I have any bold predictions for the coming year. While I firmly agree that Michael Fulmer would be a substantial upgrade in the starting rotation, I feel that he is cost-prohibitive. Allegedly, the Yankees made an offer in December that included Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada and a couple of minor league pitchers. One of the pitchers was assumed to be Chance Adams. The Tigers did not feel that package was sufficient for Fulmer. Many speculate that it would take the inclusion of Gleyber Torres to motivate the Tigers to make a deal. Sorry, that’s not happening. With no offense to Fulmer, the Yankees should not hand over the farm system to the Tigers to bring the young ace to the Bronx.  

During the Winter Meetings, Tigers GM Al Avila made the following analogy: “Let’s say you have an asset. Your house. And somebody likes it. You don’t have it for sale. But if somebody says, ‘Man, I really like your house’ and they keep pursuing you about your house, at some point, you might end up selling it.” With no motivation to sell, the Tigers can afford to demand overpayment for their “house”. They would expect a return that gives them significant pieces that would make them “a much better organization going forward”. In my opinion, the cost is too great and until the Tigers are motivated to make a deal, it is in the best interests of the Yankees to pass.

Like many, I feel that the infield represents a greater need than starting pitching. I like the suggestion of Ian Happ of the Chicago Cubs. But to make a move, the Cubs would want help for their starting rotation which means that any deal would start with Jordan Montgomery and other top pitching prospects in the Yankees organization. Happ can play multiple positions and has power, but he’s exactly the versatile kind of guy that Cubs manager Joe Maddon loves. Like the Tigers, the Cubs would have to be blown away to make a deal. If the Yankees could find a reasonable package that makes sense for both teams, I’d be in favor of a deal. However, I suspect the Cubs want more, much more.  

My not-so-bold prediction is that we will not see either Fulmer nor Happ in pinstripes anytime soon.

Giancarlo Stanton is going to find out that playing for the New York Yankees will bring media scrutiny like he’s never seen before. Yesterday’s headlines were blazing that Stanton spent New Year’s Eve surrounded by 30 women at famed Miami nightclub, LIV at Fontainebleau. The media immediately singled out Brazilian model Mariana Santana as an object of Stanton’s attention although a Stanton rep quickly dismissed it, saying “The story isn’t accurate. He said he’s not dating her and they were not at LIV together.” The days of living under the radar as a Miami Marlin are over.  

Credit:  Seth Browarnik, startraksphoto.com

ESPN is apparently targeting Alex Rodriguez to replace Aaron Boone as a member of its Sunday Night Baseball team. It would be a great move by ESPN if they can pull it off, but Fox Sports would be foolish to let A-Rod get away. If A-Rod keeps this up, he’ll soon be the highest paid guy in his second career, just like he was during his first career.  

When Triple A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre manager Al Pedrique left to join the coaching staff for the Oakland A’s, I wondered who would take over as the leader for the young Baby Bombers. The question has been answered as Double A Trenton Thunder manager Bobby Mitchell, the 2017 Eastern League Manager of the Year, has been elevated to the top minor league managerial position for the Yankees. High A Tampa Yankees (now the Tarpons) manager Jay Bell will take over for Mitchell with the Thunder. We wish both men the very best in their  new roles as they help usher the next generation of Baby Bombers into the Bronx.  

Did David Cone really turn 55 this week? How did that happen?…

Mike Mussina seems to be moving up slightly in the Hall of Fame voting. The latest results, with 37.5% of known ballots (according to Hall of Fame tracker Ryan Thibodaux), show that Moose has crept up to 73.0% (leaving him two percentage points shy of the minimum required for induction. I really hope the momentum continues to push Mussina upward to carry him past the minimum threshold. Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, and Vlad Guerrero appear to be locks with greater than 90% of the known votes. Edgar Martinez and Trevor Hoffman are also in good position. As it stands, this should be a record-breaking number of inductees. With no disrespect to the others, Moose is the only one that matters to me. The others certainly deserve their place in Cooperstown but the 2018 Class will not feel complete, to me, unless it features the guy from Montoursville, PA.  

Credit:  Sabo, NY Daily News

Maybe we’ll actually hear some Yankees news today. Maybe not. We’ll see what the day brings. Go Yankees!

Daniel Burch’s Bold Predictions for the 2018 Season

I have to admit, and a bit of an ICYMI here, when I read Bryan Van Dusen’s bold predictions for the 2018 season here on the blog I immediately thought about potentially doing a similar post of my own. When I read the article and then the subsequent comments about how Bryan was “high on shoe polish” or whatever the exact terminology was I, for one, laughed because who says that? And two, I then decided I wanted to do one of my own, so I could see what kind of “your trade proposal sucks” comments I could get myself. So here we go, my bold predictions for the 2018 season.

As it has been stated basically everywhere on the Yankees blogosphere and on Twitter, the New York Yankees need either a second baseman or a third baseman. The free agent market is dry and/or too expensive for the Yankees blood as they try to remain under the $197 million luxury tax threshold (according to reports the team is sitting at $178 million after the CC Sabathia signing that could pay him an additional $2 million leaving the total payroll for the Yankees at $180 million) so it looks like the only realistic option for the Yankees going forward is the trade market. Enter Ninja Cashman, as Bryan Van Dusen and many others call him.

While I like a deal that could potentially add Michael Fulmer to the stable of young Yankees pitchers I feel like the Tigers don’t have a reason to HAVE to trade him, thus making him really expensive. Fulmer could easily bridge the gap during the Tigers rebuild and would have immense value for the team going forward, plus I would rather get this whole infield situation rectified first before I add a sixth starting pitcher anyway. With that said I can see Brian Cashman calling up his old buddy Theo Epstein in Chicago and swinging a deal with him. Who would the Yankees be acquiring? Both Javier Baez and Ian Happ are young, cheap, controllable, versatile and could conceivably be grabbed if the Yankees sweeten the pot enough. The Cubs need bullpen help, especially in the closing department, and the Yankees have a few options including Dellin Betances and David Robertson. Giving up one of these two pitchers, preferably Robertson because of salary, and a prospect that is MLB ready or close or two like Billy McKinney or Jake Cave and a Domingo Acevedo (basically anyone but Clint Frazier or Estevan Florial at this point) could likely get one of these two infielders in the fold for New York.

Yes, I am well aware that the Cubs are high on Happ and I am also aware that the team plans on having Happ play center field as soon as next season, but one must also consider the fact that the Cubs still have Albert Amora Jr. waiting in the wings, Jason Heyward on the books and Bryce Harper in their line of site for the 2019 season. Happ played five different positions in 2017 while hitting 24 home runs at just age 23. Yes, Happ strikes out a lot. Aaron Judge does too and so does Giancarlo Stanton. In the era of sabermetrics and advanced metrics though a strikeout counts almost the same as a 400 foot fly out to center field inside Yankee Stadium, you can deal with those. Plus, Happ is left-handed which would be a great compliment to the aforementioned Stanton and Judge who are both right-handed along with fellow slugger Gary Sanchez.

Happ plays second and the Yankees stopgap at third base until Gleyber Torres is ready and his service calendar is delayed a season, the infield is set. The bench is set with Tyler Wade, Austin Romine or Alex Avila (remember we saved money by trading away David Robertson), Clint Frazier and Tyler Austin. I know what you’re asking, where is Jacoby Ellsbury? I am also eating his salary, up to about two-thirds of his salary, and I am also sending him to the San Francisco Giants but not along with Jordan Montgomery. That, I have to agree with “little p” patrick, is crazy talk. We are eating the salary, or we are sending a good prospect or MLB-proven player, not both. Bryan, himself, showed us that Ellsbury can still be useful and valuable so I don’t see a need in sending a proven player along with him. If the Giants want another player or two that most of us probably have never heard of, fine. Sweeten the pot and take the chance, but you don’t give them Montgomery and you don’t give them anyone who has a chance of making the team during the 2018 season in my opinion. Maybe send a couple of those fringe players that the team was unsure of adding to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection, the who is not as important as the fact that Ellsbury and at least all but $7-10 million of his salary annually is gone while Frazier is still on the team.

The Yankees have plenty of arms to survive the loss of Robertson and to survive the season until either Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield or ready, or until the July 31^st trading deadline arrives. Whichever comes first. If a need arises before-hand then you adjust just like any other team filling the slot with Chad Green or Adam Warren who are both coming to camp as starting pitchers, although likely to end up in the bullpen when all is said and done, and Opening Day is upon us. With the luxury tax threshold a real thing and the plan to get under it finally coming to fruition for the Yankees the time to “get greedy” has come and passed. The team has to be smart and they need to assess what is a want, like a sixth starting pitcher, and what is a need, an infielder and maybe a bullpen arm if my trade happens.

So what exactly is my boldest prediction of all? In a world where every wants the Yankees to go crazy, get greedy and acquire someone like a Michael Fulmer, Gerrit Cole or Patrick Corbin I am just sitting here expecting the five pitchers currently on the roster to be the starting five on Opening Day. Save some money and some ammo, i.e. prospects, for the trade deadline and get more for your buck. I expect, and boldly predict, the Yankees heavy lifting to be done aside from an infielder. Here’s to hoping Ian Happ or bust in the Bronx.

What are your bold predictions for the 2018 season?

Bold Predictions Leading To Opening Day

If you'd told me a year ago that the Yankees would go all the way to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series I would have said something like "aw, that's cute" followed by a giggle and sarcastic smile. But not only did that happen, here we are looking at a team that may be the odd's on favorite to win the 2018 World Series.

Even after trading for Giancarlo Stanton (just in case you don't remember, or because I want to write it out again, Stanton's the reigning National League Most Valuable Player, who also led Major League Baseball in Home Runs and Runs Batted In) the Yankees clearly plan on making a few more moves to improve the team.

So what might those plans be? I don't know, but that's not going to stop me from making a few predictions...

For starters, Gerrit Cole will not be a Yankee.

We've seen it time and time again... there is nothing happening involving any sort of move by the Yankees then, all of a sudden, Twitter lights up with stuff about an impending trade, and a couple of hours later it's all but official. Brian Cashman didn't get the nickname "ninja" for nothing.

The Cole thing has been talked about for months. I suppose it could still be worked out, especially when Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish are signed, but if anything happens for a starter it will likely come out of left field. Cashman will deal for somebody that we didn't even know was available. And then some Yankees fans will be upset and call the deal "garbage". Why? Because there are always a few Yankees fans that like to crap on everything.

That's not to say the Yankees rotation is set. Sure, they could go with what they have and be just fine. But nobody in Yankees Universe, whether they work for the organization or cheer for it, is going to settle. But this prediction is going to be very difficult, because like I said earlier... "Ninja" Cashman.

I'm going to predict that the Yankees trade for Michael Fulmer.

On August 31st the Tigers traded Justin Upton, their regular left fielder, to the Angels. And I'm about 99.99% sure their regular right fielder last season, JD Martinez, is not going to re-sign with Detroit. That means the Tigers have lost both of their corner outfielders and their only clear starting outfielder for 2018 is "meh" (Mikie Mahtook). I took a peak at their prospect list on MLB.com, and they don't have a single outfield prospect that's played above AA in their top 30.

So I think Clint Frazier would be a very nice fit for Detroit. Add Chance Adams, and another solid prospect or two, and I think a deal will get made.

With that said here are a few more predictions...

1. Jacoby Ellsbury will not be a Yankee on Opening Day. There may not be anything in the works right now, but once a few free agent center fielders start getting signed, some team will step up and be willing to pay Ellsbury between $8 and $10 million a season. Yankees people tend to overvalue their players, but in this case I think Jacoby is undervalued. Just look at Ellsbury's Fangraphs page, where he was worth $12.6 million last year and $16 million the year before. Some team will be happy to pay him upwards of $30 million for the next three years. And I predict that team will be the San Francisco Giants.

Jacoby to the Giants is not exactly a bold prediction, as it's been said there is interest from both San Francisco and Ellsbury, but the fact that Jordan Montgomery (the odd man out of the rotation after the Yanks trade for Fulmer) will be involved is something.

The Giants need pitching, particularly young pitching, so including Montgomery in the deal with Ellsbury is what makes it happen.

I know that trading for Fulmer while trading away Montgomery is kind of strange. I mean, Michael and Jordan are very close in age. However with one more year in MLB, including a better rookie season (Fulmer had an ERA+ of 139 his rookie year, while Jordan's was 116), I think Michael is the better bet. Also, the Giants would be better swayed to deal for Ellsbury if a pitcher with MLB experience like Jordan was involved... rather than somebody like Domingo Acevedo who has yet to make his MLB debut.

2. I've been thinking that the Yankees would forego bringing in somebody to play second or third base, as their internal candidates would be better than any free agent that would take a one year contract for like $10 million, but once I saw Ellsbury getting moved I think there will be money to use at one of the two spots.

I think the Yankees are willing to start Ronald Torreyes at second base until Gleyber Torres is ready (I say by June). However, while Miguel Andujar is a really good prospect, I don't think the Yankees are willing to go into 2018 leaning on Miguel at third. Therefore, using the money saved trading Jacoby Ellsbury (3 years and about $30 million), the Yankees will bring in Todd Frazier to start at third base on Opening Day.

3. New manager Aaron Boone will decide that it's best to swap Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in right field and at designated hitter. Brett Gardner's defense, and solid hitting, means Boone will want to start Gardner in left field regularly. Which means we see one of two lineups regularly... Gardner-Hicks-Judge with Stanton at DH, or Gardner-Hicks-Stanton with Judge at DH.

4. The Yankees, along with most teams, will go with a regular bench of three players. Two of those spots will be filled by guys named Tyler. Tyler Austin will be there to backup first base, third base, and either corner outfield position. And Tyler Wade will be there to backup second base, shortstop, and the entire outfield. Which gives Boone a very versatile bench.

5. That leaves the bench needing a backup catcher. Austin Romine is projected to get a little over a million dollars in arbitration (thanks MLB Trade Rumors!), which may save his job. If he were to make any more money then I could see the Yankees releasing him and giving the backup job to Kyle Higashioka... who is already on the 40-man roster, and would make well under a million dollars as a pre-arbitration player.

I can see the team deciding to save about half a million dollars by going with Higashioka instead or Romine, but something tells me they'll just go with Austin instead.

With that all said, here's my projected Opening Day Active Roster...

Starting Rotation:
1. Luis Severino
2. Masahiro Tanaka
3. Sonny Gray
4. Michael Fulmer
5. CC Sabathia*

Position Starters:
C - Gary Sanchez
1B - Greg Bird
2B - Ronald Torreyes
3B - Todd Frazier
SS - Didi Gregorius
LF - Brett Gardner
CF - Aaron Hicks
RF - Aaron Judge
DH - Giancarlo Stanton

Position Bench:
1B/3B/RF/LF - Tyler Austin
2B/SS/RF/LF/CF - Tyler Wade
C - Austin Romine

Bullpen:
Aroldis Chapman*
David Robertson
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Dellin Betances
Adam Warren
Chasen Shreve*
Jonathan Holder
* - denotes left-handed pitcher

The Year of Pinstripes & Champagne...

Welcome to the New Year, Yankees Family!

2017 and falling one game short of the World Series is a distant memory. We’ve turned the page, and it is time to look onward and upward. To each of you, I wish a most joyous and highly successful New Year, both personally and professionally, and it’s one, for all os us, that I hope consummates in the 28th World Championship for the New York Yankees.

Credit:  Jed Jacobsohn, Getty Images

As we head into the New Year, I am not quite sure why the Yu Darvish rumors persist. I don’t have anything against Darvish. I’ve long liked the pitcher, but I don’t see how he fits. The Yankees may like Darvish but it doesn’t mean that they should sign him. Earlier in the off-season, MLB Trade Rumors projected the next Darvish contract at 6 years and $160 million. While prices will begin to drop for the stagnant free agent market, I’d be surprised if Darvish gets anything less than $20 million per year. That figure alone would take the Yankees past the $197 million luxury tax threshold.  

There’s speculation that the Yankees could move Jacoby Ellsbury to make some room, but you and I both know that the Yankees have to pay a huge chunk of that onerous contract to get any team to bite. And, oh yeah, there’s the little issue that you need Ellsbury’s consent too. Even if the Yankees could move Ellsbury and pick up, say, $10 million in annual salary relief, it wouldn’t make sense to sign Darvish as it would leave very little room for experienced quality infield help and potential trading deadline moves.  

So, let’s kill any talk of Yu Darvish. There’s no chance he’ll show up in Pinstripes.

Same for the Gerrit Cole rumors. The Pittsburgh Pirates know what the Yankees are willing to offer and there has been no deal. The Yankees are not going to sweeten the pot beyond the rumored names. Those talks appear to be dead and I do not see any chance of resuscitation.  

At this point, starting pitching is not really a need. Sure, there are questions about the rotation but name a team that doesn’t have questions with at least one starter. The odd man out if the Yankees were to acquire another starting pitcher would be Jordan Montgomery. To me, the only real reason that you’d make a trade is if you have the belief that this is the year the UCL tear in Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow will finally require Tommy John surgery. CC Sabathia surely won’t make all of his 2018 starts but with guys like Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield and Albert Abreu waiting in the wings, there is hope and promise on the horizon. While I’d hate to lose Chad Green out of the bullpen, the Yankees have told him to come to Spring Training as a starter. So, when in need of spot starts, Green and Adam Warren are more than capable of the challenge.  

The Yankees can reassess their starting pitching needs in July and make decisions accordingly.  No Cole. No Darvish. Let’s move on.

I remain very hopeful the Yankees can move Jacoby Ellsbury (please!). The real question is how much of the contract the Yankees have to absorb to make it happen and how much prospect talent they need to include. In reality, no team will make a trade for Ellsbury as long as the free agent market continues to offer guys like Lorenzo Cain, Carlos Gomez, and Austin Jackson. Ellsbury may be better than all except for Cain, but it will take an environment of desperation for teams in need of a quality centerfielder to act on a possible Ellsbury trade. 

If the Yankees believe strongly that Miguel Andujar can be the answer at third base, they should make a lower level free agent signing for someone like Eduardo Nunez to ease the transition. I’ve said that I wouldn’t want rookies on both sides of Didi Gregorius but the  Yankees have Tyler Wade and Ronald Torreyes to hold down second until Gleyber Torres is ready. Realistically, the Yankees will start Torres at Triple A for at least 20 service days to push his free agency back a year. That’s a move that they have to make for the long-term best interests of the organization. While Wade/Torreyes man second base, it would be helpful to have a veteran covering third or at least provide support for Andujar.

With pitchers and catchers scheduled to report to Tampa by February 13th, there’s not really much left to be done for GM Brian Cashman. With the holiday season behind us, the coming weeks will be about finding value and bargains. I still expect the addition of a veteran third baseman but nothing major. I am resigned to the fact that we won’t see the return of the Toddfather nor will we be celebrating Moose Tacos in the Bronx. Nevertheless, I am confident that whomever runs out to third base at the start of the game at 3:37 pm EDT on Thursday, March 29th at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada will be the right decision.

Here is the MLB Network’s projected Yankees lineup:

Brett Gardner, LF

Aaron Judge, RF

Giancarlo Stanton, DH

Greg Bird, 1B

Gary Sanchez, C

Didi Gregorius, SS

Aaron Hicks, CF

Miguel Andujar, 3B

Ronald Torreyes, 2B

Personally, I kind of like putting Bird between Judge and Stanton to break up the righties, but that’s for Aaron Boone to decide, not me. The above lineup, with or without experienced help at third, is very solid…particularly once the Gleyber Show arrives.  

Credit:  Andrew Savulich, New York Daily News

It’s going to be a great New Year in the Bronx! I am excited and look forward to the upcoming season, and hold strong dreams of a victorious October.  Let’s stain those Pinstripes with the Bubbly!

Before I end this post, I’d like to say thank you to Daniel Burch and Bryan Van Dusen for their leadership and vision with The Greedy Pinstripes. Following the blog, you know 2017 was a tough year for Daniel yet he delivered from beginning to end. The man needs to make no apologies and he has shown that 2018 will be his best year yet.  

Go Yankees!