After all the dust has settles from the Winter and GM Meetings and all the big time free agents have signed, well except for Prince Fielder, the Yankees blog world usually goes prospect crazy. The Winter Leagues and Dominican leagues and Arizona Fall Leagues are all wrapping up and the Yankees blogs and experts put together their top prospect lists, and here is mine.
With the recent trade of super prospect Jesus Montero that opens the door for everyone to slide up a spot. Let the debate begin.
1. Manny Banuelos
2. Dellin Betances
3. Gary Sanchez
4. Austin Romine
5. Mason Williams
6. Jose Campos
7. Dante Bichette Jr
8. David Phelps
9. Adam Warren
10. JR Murphy
Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances is more of a #1 and #1A type situation here. You could put either at #1 and the other at #2 and no one would complain too loudly. Banuelos gets the edge on my list because he is younger, more durable, and is left handed. The stats are a wash basically with both of them in AAA Scranton.
Gary Sanchez is the replacement for Jesus Montero, the problem is he is so far away. He does project, even with a down year last year, to be better offensively and defensively then both Jesus Montero and Austin Romine. Projections mean little when your in A Ball though...
Austin Romine is this high on my list for one reason, major league readiness. He is major league ready now and is already on the 40 man roster. His bat is a little deficient when you look at what Montero has done in the minors but he more then makes up for it with his defense. I am personally a bigger fan of a Jose Molina type catcher then a Javy Lopez or Mike Piazza type catcher. We had enough years of Posada, as much as I love him and am glad he was a Yankee, not being able to throw runners out and call a game that Russell Martin and Romine will be a sight for sore eyes this season.
What can I say about Mason Williams that hasnt already been said? He showed lots of pop, fundamentals, tools, etc etc etc... in a short season in the New York Penn League. He is the farthest thing from a sure thing and is extremely far from the majors but the Yankees have seemingly donned him "untouchable" which should speak volumes.
Jose Campos is the 19 yr. old RHP we got in the Montero and Noesi for Pineda trade. He easily touches 95 mph, sometimes as high as 98. Again only in A ball and again only in a short season but he already has 2 plus plus pitches and 2 more potential plus pitches. 4 plus pitches , especially with the strike out numbers he puts up, always projects to be a top of the rotation starter. He may be the best pitching prospect in the system not named a "Killer B".
Dante Bichette's biggest thing is if he can stay at the 3B position. He proved above and beyond that the bat was there but the defense was always the suspect. When you have that kind of a special bat like this young man can, see Jesus Montero, you find a way to hide the defense. He was horrendous defensively though which gives you some hope. Much like a lot of these Top 10 guys, he is in a short season (GCL) and is far away.
Adam Warren and David Phelps could be flip flopped here. Both are in AAA Scranton and both are starting pitchers. Both, in my opinion, are also major league ready although it wouldnt hurt Phelps to spend some more time in AAA to work on a few things. Phelps is the better pitcher , projection wise, in my opinion. I could see him as a 4th or 5th starter type where I could easily see Adam Warren having to move into the bullpen to lengthen his career.
I wanted to put Slade Heathcott here but I decided not to since he cant seem to stay healthy for a full season. JR Murphy is yet another catching prospect that the Yankees like and yet another prospect on my list in A Ball. He could make it as high as AA Trenton this season with no one but maybe Jose Gil standing in his way and Gary Sanchez needing full playing time in A Ball.
Thats my list.... whats yours?
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
How about Raul?
Is he looking at the ball? That could be the problem.
Raul saw a significant drop in numbers last season, compared to 2010. In 2010 his triple-slash was .275/.349/.444, and the following season it dropped to .245/.289/.419. Even before 2009 he was able to maintain a good to great batting average, along with a nice OBP, so what we saw last year out of him was most definitely not the norm. And on the surface you'd expect to see his numbers rebound. But I can't leave it at that... right?
I like to look at a player's ratios first when looking for differences. To start, Raul's HR% actually went up a bit from 2.5% to 3.5%, so I'm not sure he's lost any power which would attribute to the drop in SLG. That doesn't really surprise me, but what did surprise me was that Ibanez's XBH% didn't really change either, as it went from 9.1% to 9.0%. So he hit more HR, and hit just as many extra base hits (per plate appearance, of course). So where did that 25 point drop come from? The only thing I could see a big enough difference in, to account for those lost 25 points, came from his drop in triples. He had 5 triples in 2010, and only 1 last season. But honestly I don't think that could make that big a difference. Although I could be wrong about that. I have to move on to get my head to stop spinning.
Raul's OBP dropped 60 points. Where did those points go? This wasn't so hard to figure out, as the first thing I checked... walk percentage... told quite a story. In 2010 Ibanez walked in 10.7% of his plate appearances, while in 2011 that went down to 5.7%. Now, that 10.7% was a career high, but in the previous 5 seasons (2005-2009) his average walk percentage was over 9%, so it's clear that last seasons' 5.7% was definitely not the norm. So I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, and say that he'd be able to raise that OBP to respectable levels again.
What about the batting average? We certainly don't want to pay a guy to come in and hit .245, so can we expect something better out of him there too? I think so. To start with he put a few more balls into play than he did the year before, as his IP% (Balls in-play percentage) went up from 70% to 72%. And FYI, that percentage has been pretty regular his entire career, so I see no reason to expect that to drop much... if any. I believe the true story here lies in Raul's Line Drive percentage, that dropped from 21% in 2010 (right around his career average of 20%) to 16% in 2011. To put it bluntly, he just wasn't hitting the ball as hard. Which led to career low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .268, which is far lower than his career BABIP of .303... which is right in line with the average player's BABIP. So I would expect his batting average to come back up to a fairly good level as well.
The only question I have with Ibanez, which is not a small one mind you, is that he'll turn 40 in June. He's been pretty healthy his entire career, and last season he missed only 4 games due to a sore groin. But it's hard enough to be accepting of a guy in his upper 30s, so seeing "40" next to a player's age is not comforting.
Ibanez is also coming off of a 3 year contract of $31.5 million ($10.5m AAV), and even though he was below average last season, I'm not sure he'd accept a contract for 1 year at around $2 million. So like with Vlad, this entire post could be pointless.
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After looking at the latest two options for the DH position, Guerrero and Ibanez, I'm still thinking that the Yankees are better off with Andruw Jones against left-handed pitchers, while they give guys like Jorge Vazquez a shot against right-handers. Not that Jorge is ideal, but the options at $2 million a year aren't that much better... or they aren't better at all.
More Options for DH
He's seen many HR fly off his bat in his career.
Last season Vlad Guerrero hit a line of .290/.317/.416, with 13 HR, for the Orioles. A bit different from the .300/.345/.496, with 29 HR, he put up the year before in Texas. Rangers Ballpark at Arlington is a homer haven, as there were a MLB-high 1.5 HR/game hit there last season (Yankee Stadium was 4th in MLB, seeing 1.267 HR/Gm), so that could have had a lot to do with the power drop after leaving the Rangers. But it's not as though Orioles Park is that much worse, as last year it was 8th in MLB in HR/Gm with 1.144. Vlad did play in 7 less games, but that doesn't make up the difference either. Looking further you'll see that his HR% dropped dramatically, from a career average of 5% to 2.2%, and his FB% did go down a bit from a career 36.3% to 32.4%. But the biggest change I see his his HR/FB, which went from a career mark of 13.4% to a career low of 5.9%. He did suffer a hairline fracture in his right hand in July, but looking at his game logs he wasn't hitting home runs any more before the injury than after, so that was really a non-factor. Lastly, his Line Drive percentage was exactly the same as his career average... 20%. So I really don't think the days of Vlad hitting around 25 HR are behind him.
Vladimir's batting average still lookes pretty good, but what about Guerrero's OBP? The reason for this seems to be in his walk percentage. Now, Vlad has never drawn a ton of walks, as he's a hacker. But like Robinson Cano, the guy makes more than enough contact to make up for not seeing a ton of pitches. However, even though he doesn't walk much anyway (8.1% for his career, while Nick Swisher's walk-rate is 13.5%), Vlad's walk-rate went down to 2.9%.
Here's my guess as to what happened... Baltimore did not have a strong lineup at all. The O's scored only 708 runs, which was 1 less than the worst offense in the AL East... the Rays (although the Rays run prevention was easily the best in the AL). I'm certainly not the biggest proponent of the idea of lineup protection, but in this case it's hard to ignore. I'm guessing that Vlad saw very few strikes, as there was really no reason to give him pitches to hit. I wasn't able to find hard stats to back that up, but I did find that he saw a lot more curveballs last season (10.4% of pitches to him were curveballs, as opposed to 7.1% in 2010).
To go along with righty-lefty splits that aren't that far off (career vs. RHP .316/.372/.546, career vs. LHP .322/.400/.572), while believing he'd see a rebound in his power numbers in Yankee Stadium (and with that lineup), I think he'd be a pretty good pick-up. The only obstacle may be salary, as he made $8 million with Baltimore last season, and although he was far from great (for comparison, Carlos Pena does not really deserve a salary drop at all), I don't see him going anywhere for around $2 million. Making all that work above possibly worthless.
I wanted to note that all stats were gathered from Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Not sure what I'd do without those great websites, which is why SOPA really scares me.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Half-way there
The payroll for 2012 has been updated after Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and David Robertson all came to contract agreements with the Yankees. In doing so they avoided arbitration.
Phil Hughes will earn $3.2 million, and will be eligible to receive incentives up to $225,000 ($50,000 for making his 20th start, then $25,000 for making his 23rd, 26th, 29th, 30th, 31st, 32nd, and 33rd starts).
David Robertson will get $1.6 million, along with incentives (the details of those incentives has yet to be released).
Joba Chamberlain received a contract for $1.6 million.
That leaves Russell Martin (filed for $8.2 million, while the team countered with $7 million), Brett Gardner (filed for $3.2 million, while the team countered with $2.4 million), and Boone Logan (filed for $2.1 million, while the team counted with $1.7 million), as the remaining Yankees that are arbitration eligible.
Monday, January 16, 2012
I'm thinking too much about the DH
There has been talk of bringing in Johnny Damon as the DH, and just now I read that the Yankees spoke with Matsui (or his agent). I really don't think either player should be brought in.
The first reason is that Andruw Jones beat up on left-handed pitchers to a tune of .286/.384/.540 last season, and for his career he's done much of the same (.263/.363/.504). Andruw, in my mind, is a no-brainer to start at DH against every left-handed starters.
What does that have to do with Johnny and Hideki? Well, they would start as the DH against right-handed pitchers. Well, last season Damon hit .255/.314/.401 vs. RHP, which is not worth even $2 million in my opinion. Last season Matsui hit .242/.318/.336 vs. RHP, which isn't very impressive either.
Add the fact that neither Damon or Matsui can play the field, or should I say... play the field well at all, and I think they'd be a waste of a roster spot.
The other name that has been mentioned, and somebody the Yankees have shown interest in in the past is Carlos Pena. Well I'd be good with him, because even though Carlos' days in the field are really behind him too, Pena did hit .255/.388/.504 vs. RHP. The only problem with Carlos Pena is price, as I don't think he'd take a 1 year contract for around $2 million, seeing as how he made $10 million with the Cubs last season, and put up an OPS+ of 123.
I looked at the rest of the free agents and they either didn't hit that well against RHPs, or they didn't hit well enough to make up for the fact they couldn't play the infield, particularly 3B, which is what the Yankees should be thinking about right now (they already have a 4th OFer in Jones, a super-utility in Nunez, and a backup catcher in Cervelli). Which leads me to think the Yankees should either allow Brandon Laird to take that last bench spot, or bring back Eric Chavez.
Chavez hit .255/.322/.365 vs. RHPs last season, which is nothing to brag about, but over his career he has hit right-handed pitchers to the tune of .278/.357/.509, so there's precedent to believe he could get the job done.
So sign Pena if he'll come cheap, but if that won't happen (which I don't think it will) then they should go with Eric Chavez or Brandon Laird.
Hamels may still be an option for 2013
Hey, Cole. You'd look better in Yankee pinstripes.
After the events of last Friday I was thinking... are the Yankees still going to go after Cole Hamels should he become a free agent?
To start, they will have a room in the rotation. Hiroki Kuroda is going to be in the rotation, and his contract is only for one year. I know of a few people concerned that Phil Hughes will be pushed to the bullpen this season, as that 5th spot could go to Freddy Garcia or AJ Burnett instead of him. Those same people would probably raise concerns about acquiring Hamels, because that could not only take away a spot for Hughes to possibly fill, but it could also block some of the young pitchers we currently have slated for the AAA rotation (Banuelos, Betances, Warren, Phelps, and Mitchell). In my opinion, while this is a fine gripe to have, I want the Yankees to be the best they possibly can be. And it's also my opinion that Cole Hamels would make the team/rotation better than Hughes, Banuelos, or any of the other youngsters could.
But what about the finances? Any of the young pitchers that could fill a rotation spot or two would be a ton cheaper than Hamels would be. While that's certainly true, I believe the team can sign Hamels without blowing up the budget at all (in fact, by the end of this post you may be pleasantly surprised).
Here's a list of players that will not be signed after 2012, and how much they'll be making...
Hiroki Kuroda - $10 million
Mariano Rivera - $15 million (I would want him back, but retirement is an option)
Nick Swisher - $10.25 million
Russell Martin - $6.7 million (this is an estimate from MLBTR)
Pedro Feliciano - $4 million
Freddy Garcia - $4 million
Andruw Jones - $2 million
Total - $51.95 million
As for players contracted, whose salaries will change, there's these...
Alex Rodriguez - -$1 million
Derek Jeter - +$1 million
Robinson Cano - +$1 million (club option, likely to be picked up)
Curtis Granderson - +$3 million (club option, likely to be picked up)
Total - +$4 million
So the Yankees look to have around $48 million to work with next offseason. Two important areas that they will need to address, more so than Hamels, are right field (Swisher) and catcher (Martin). I mean, a team can go without a player at those two positions, and we have guys that could step into the rotation already.
I'll start with Russell Martin. The Yankees seem to really like this guy, and I understand why. He's a really good defensive catcher, he handles the staff well, and his attitude fits in with the team. So it comes down to how much it would cost. To start he'll be 29 in February, so he's certainly worth a multi-year deal. I tried looking at recent free agent catchers to come up with a contract estimate, but I couldn't do it. In terms of a similar fWAR this season, it was either McCann (who signed an extension with Atlanta back in 2007) or Ruiz (who signed an extension with Philadelphia back in 2010). So I'm pretty much pulling a contract out of my ass, while king of basing it off Posada's last contract of 3 years with an AAV of $13.1 million... 4 years and $36 million (AAV of $9 million).
In order to figure out how much Swisher may command in free agency I looked at Michael Cuddyer, and his new contract with Colorado. Cuddyer signed a 3 year deal worth $31.5 million (AAV of $10.5 million). Well over the last 3 years, according to Fangraphs, Michael has been worth $30.1 million. Swisher was worth $47.6 million. Keep in mind that Cuddyer will be 33 entering this season, while Swish will be 31. Seeing as how Fangraphs was so close with Cuddyer, to go along with Nick being 2 years younger, I'd say... at most... it would cost a 4 year contract worth $50 million (AAV of $12.5 million) to bring Swisher back.
So to fill the voids at catcher and right field, with the same players (which looking at the free agents of 2013, would probably be the best choices), it would cost the team $21.5 million a year. Taking that away from that $48 million, we're left with $26.5 million.
But, if the Yankees are able to get Cole Hamels, before having to deal with the right field hole, then I could see some of the young pitchers being used to trade for a new right fielder, instead of re-signing Swisher. All five of the guys slated for the AAA rotation (Banuelos, Betances, Warren, Phelps, and Mitchell) could probably be put into a MLB rotation right now, so I could easily see a couple of them, along with another piece or two, being dealt for Swisher's replacement. Which could save the team quite a bit of money.
And Austin Romine may be able to step in for Martin too, which could save another chunk of money.
The trade for a right fielder could save the team upwards of $10 million, and using Romine instead of Martin could save the team another $8.5 million, for a total of $18.5 million. Leaving the Yankees with around $45 million, which is more than enough to get Hamels, fill the bench, and still bring down the payroll by a considerable amount.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
The Already Forgotten Two
Breaking news... The Yankees traded C and #1 prospect to the Seattle Mariners for RHP Michael Pineda. Did anyone else just hear about this? No? Ok enough with the sarcasm. Wait... we got Kuroda too? Ok seriously this time.
Now I personally like to think of myself as a knowledgeable kind of guy when it comes to the Yankees prospects. I have even been referred to as a "prospect" humper in some circles on the forum that I am a member of, Daily Sports Pages. Just because I have a thread for almost every prospect that I constantly update and just because I don't really want to trade ANY of the prospects that are actually worth trading does this really make me a prospect humper? Maybe... but I digress.
There were apparently two other players involved in the Montero for Pineda swap. One was Yankees RHP Hector Noesi and the other was Seattle's RHP Jose Campos. I personally think that the Montero for Pineda trade was an equal trade, an oddity in major league baseball. The Yankees needed pitching and got a great power pitcher that misses a lot of bats at age 23 and under 5 years team control. The Mariners got a young, cheap, impact hitter that they needed at a premium position. The way the Yankees win this trade, in my prospect humping opinion, is with the "forgotten" two in this trade.
At the beginning of the offseason we heard a lot of talk about patience from Brian Cashman. Wrapped up in that talk was Cashman's willingness to ONLY use Noesi as a starter this season followed by great claims and comparisons to Noesi being "this year's Ivan Nova." I think a lot of us got excited to think we had another potentially young and dominant young starter to come from our minor league system. The rest of us called "bull" and waited anxiously to see what kind of trade that Brian Cashman was working on while he was trying to build up Noesi's trade value. Obviously those of us waited to see a Winter and GM Meetings trade, not a trade in the middle of January, but hey we have to take it when it comes, right?
Hector Noesi was not bad for us by any means, and Jose Campos is only 19 years old and in A ball so its not like we will be seeing dividends from him any time soon, but I still think the Yankees pulled one out of their hats with this trade. Again, Noesi was not bad for us by any means but he wasn't exactly special either. On a crowded 40 man roster including DJ Mitchell, David Phelps, Dellin Betances, George Kontos, and recent Rule 5 draft picks Brad Meyers and Cesar Cabral, Hector Noesi simply became replaceable. Not to mention that we had 6 pitchers for 5 spots competing down in Scranton for the AAA rotation including Adam Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, Noesi, Betances, and Manny Banuelos. It is tough to judge Noesi by his 56 innings in the majors but he is 24 years old and will be 25 when the season starts. Noesi misses enough bats to be successful with 7 K's per 9 IP last season, again with a small sample size. Matching that with 3.5 walks per 9IP doesn't look good and neither does a .331 BABIP. He does have a 40% ground ball rate but a 10% HR/FB rate and neither of them are actually very good. This will all be better when he goes from a hitters park in the Bronx to a pitchers park in Seattle's Safeco. That is why you see pitchers who throw sinker balls like Chein Ming Wang and Ivan Nova, to name a few, be so successful in New York. Noesi's stuff does not mesh well with the stadium he has been pitching in. Not to mention that the Yankees already have 3 more Hector Noesi's already in AAA just waiting and rotting.
Now, on to Jose Campos. I personally, and a lot of my twitter followers, are already putting Campos at #5 on our prospect list in between NYPL OF Mason Williams and GCL 3B Dante Bichette Jr. Jose Campos is 19 years old and is the very definition of a power pitcher. Campos is an extreme strike thrower with an above average fastball touching 95 mph. To go with that he has an inconsistent, but above average slider. Campos showed this season that his hard curveball and changeup show flashes of becoming "plus pitches." Count them... Plus Plus fastball with nice angle, deception, and life. Plus Plus slider, and potentially a plus curve and changeup usually equals a fantastic top of the line starting pitcher. He has yet to pitch a full season yet so he is 3-5 years away but has more upside and potential then any current Yankees minor league pitcher not donned with the nickname "Killer B." Jose Campos has a nice frame for such a power pitcher coming in at 6'4" and 195 lbs. Naturally you worry about repeating his delivery and injuries at that size , and they are legit concerns with ANY young pitcher, but that is just what they are at this point... concerns. Nothing concrete to back any of them up yet so that is encouraging.
The biggest concern in the Montero for Pineda trade was that we have plenty of Noesi's but no more Montero's currently in our system, which is true. We don't have any Jose Campos in our system in my opinion either. Dellin Betances struggles too much with his fastball command, although making up for it with his high strike out numbers, to be considered what Campos could be. Manny Banuelos is there with Campos in projections and ceilings but I did not include him because he is left handed. Jose Campos, if he reaches his potential, will be much better then Hector Noesi. To go out on a limb he could be much better then Ivan Nova for that matter. To reiterate, we have 3 more Hector Noesi's JUST in AAA but we don't have ANY Jose Campos in Low A Charleston where he looks like he is going, and we don't have ANY Jose Campos in High A, and we don't have ANY Jose Campos in AA, and we don't look like we will have ANY Jose Campos in AAA when he gets there. When Campos is expected to reach the majors we wont have Jesus Montero, and we presumably wouldn't have had Hector Noesi.... but we will still have Michael Pineda under team control... for cheap.
Damon at DH?
How about a reunion? Well, how about not?
But the DH situation still needs to be addressed. And what I'm reading lately has me scratching my head, as many Yankee fans would love to see Johnny Damon return to the Bronx. I don't get it, and I'm hoping Brian Cashman is as smart as I think he is.
Damon hit .261/.326/.418 last season, with 16 HRs and 19 SBs. His OPS+ of 110 suggests that he is an above average hitter, and he did that in the AL East so there's no reason to expect a large drop-off in those numbers. But the fact of the matter is the guy made $5.25 million (that doesn't include incentives, which could have brought his salary to as high as $6 million), and with the Yankees payroll hovering around $212 million after the Kuroda signing, I see no reason to spend like that on Johnny. Not when the offense is already a strength, even as is, and the team already has good to decent alternatives. Oh, and Johnny Damon is nearly worthless in the field. Last season he played in 84 innings at LF, to a UZR/150 of -15.6. The year before Johnny only played 268.1 innings in the OF for Detroit. So at this point he'd really be another Jorge Posada... a DH only. Why would the Yankees want to blow a roster spot on that?
Andruw Jones hit .286/.384/.540 against left-handed pitchers last season, so he's pretty much a no-brainer to DH against lefties. As for what he did against same-sided pitching... yeah, I'd rather not go there. Let's just say he shouldn't bat against righties. Cool?
Jorge Vazquez is somebody else that could see some at bats as the team's DH in 2012. I was hoping to see what his splits looked like last season, particularly against left and right-handed pitchers, but I couldn't find anything after 2010. In that season though he actually showed a reverse split, as his BA, OBP, and SLG were all better against same-sided hurlers (.263/.317/.516). I don't know much about the Minor League Equivalency calculator at ML Splits, but I plugged in Jorge's numbers from last season and it tells me to expect a line of .227/.274/.427... not an encouraging sign. Perhaps if that calculator could give splits as well. *shrugs* But as for defense, he could give Teixeira rests from the field, as Jorge was a decent 1B in the minors.
I'm not big on the idea of bringing back Eric Chavez, as he wasn't anything special last year and his health record is far from stellar. Also, if you look at what he did versus right-handers (assuming Jones does DH against lefties) you'll see a line of .255/.322/.365. Seeing that I'd rather roll with Vazquez against right-handed pitchers. The only true plus to adding Chavez would be to give ARod a rest at 3B, although Nunez did appear in 33 games there in 2011.
Then we've heard about Carlos Pena. Here's a guy whose batting average over the last three years was .216. The only thing nice about Carlos' numbers recently is his HR total. But let's be honest... the Yankees don't need anymore power. Especially if it would cost anywhere near the $10 million it cost Tampa to sign him last year (it wouldn't, but it's not like Pena would sign a deal like Chavez did last season either). I should be fair though, as his career OBP of .352 is nothing to sneeze at. But again.. a hitter with power that gets on base a lot? The Yankee lineup does not need that at all. They could really use a guy with a good batting average, so if they are going to look outside the organization I think they should look away Carlos.
I'd be totally cool with trying guys out on minor league deals, like the Yanks did last year with Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. Although I wouldn't expect to find a diamond in the rough like they did with Freddy and Bartolo anyway. At this point I think they should try out guys already "in house", and make a move later if necessary.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Now, what about DH?
Welcome to New York, Mr. Pineda.
The Montero-Pineda trade? Love it. The Kuroda pick-up? Great. Now let's move on.
Last night there was plenty of speculation about what the Yankees would do in regards to the hole left at DH. I read some rumors about their interest in Carlos Pena (no thanks, the team could use a guy that hits for a good average, not a low average with power), and this morning there was something about a possible David Robertson for Mark Trumbo swap (an absolutely ridiculous idea if you ask me). I suppose the Yankees could make the DH slot a revolving door by using Andruw Jones against lefties, giving ARod some rest by starting him their once or twice a week, and possibly Eric Chavez the rest of the time. Not a horrible idea, but I would think Ninja Cashman could do better. Which leads me to a trade idea.
Yes, most trade ideas tend to suck. My ideas, including this one, probably aren't much bettter, but hear me out...
Now seems to be the best time to think about getting somebody that could not only fit into the lineup now, but also take over for Nick Swisher in 2013 and beyond. I was thinking about replacing Nick after this season, but with the hole that was created by the Montero-Pineda trade now seems to be the time. We'll start by taking a look at the depth of the Yankees' system, in terms of good/great young talent...
Pitcher - Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Jose Campos (the link will give you some info on Jose, and the trade that brought him to NY), Adam Warren, David Phelps, DJ Mitchell, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes
Outfield - Mason Williams, Ravel Santana, Slade Heathcott, Jorge Vazquez, Jordan Parraz
Catcher - Gary Sanchez, JR Murphy, Austin Romine
I'd say that's pretty deep, especially at pitcher. Which is why I'm not nearly as concerned as others at the loss of Hector Noesi in that Montero-Pineda trade (not to mention we got a pretty good pitching prospect in Jose Campos too... why are people concerned about that again?). So I looked around to try and find a team that could use some help in all three of those areas, and had an outfielder that would be attractive as well. I landed in Pittsburgh.
For starters, the only catching prospect in the Top 10 of the Pirates' system is Tony Sanchez. Well Tony is coming off of a horrible season at AA Altoona, where he put up a triple-slash of .241/.340/.318. Not that he has no future, as he'll be entering his age 24 season and saw success in the low minors (.314/.416/.454 in A+ ball in 2010), but if Pittsburgh could get another catching prospect then I'm sure they'd be interested. Especially if that catching prospect was able to start in MLB right away.
As for the Pirates' pitching they could use help too. Paul Maholm is a free agent after having the 2nd best ERA out of their starters last season, James McDonald and Kevin Correia were below average, Charlie Morton had a nice ERA but a poor WHIP led him to be average, while Jeff Karstens (who Pittsburgh got from New York) was easily their best starter. They just drafted Gerrit Cole so he's years away, and their #2 pitching prospect (Cole is 1st), Jameson Taillon, is only 20 years old and was in A ball last year... therefore he too is a few years away. So I know they'd be interested in acquiring a young pitcher that could help the rotation right away.
What about outfielders? Well Jose Tabata was injured for 71 games last season, starting with a quad strain that was apparently healed as he returned in mid-August and played without reaggravating it. Jose fractured a bone in his hand at the end of the season, but it was said at the time that he'd return in 10 days, so I don't believe it was major in any way. Their rightfielder was Garrett Jones, who did not impress much, putting up a triple-slash of .243/.321/.433. That's not horrible (he did hit 16 HR as well), but I'm sure the Pirates are looking forward to seeing what Starling Marte can do in MLB. Marte was in AA Altoona last season, where he put up a line of .332/.370/.500. Starling is probably only a year or two away, and since Pitt won't be competing next season, I'm sure they can wait on him.
This brings us to the man of the hour... Andrew McCutchen. I don't think I have to spend much time talking about Andrew, and what he could bring to the team. He turned 25 last October, and his triple-slash estimates are somewhere around .277/.370/.460, to go with 20 HR and around 20 SB. I believe he has 4 more years of team control left as well.
There were whispers back in November about listening to offers for McCutchen, although they were followed up with talk of re-entering extension talks. Keith Law suggested that the Pirates would have to be "blown away" by an offer, and I think I may have that offer.
Jorge Vazquez/Dellin Betances/Austin Romine/Adam Warren for Andrew McCutchen/Kyle McPherson (pitcher, #6 prospect in organization according to Baseball America)
Vazquez isn't the best outfield prospect the Yankees could offer, but he's MLB-ready and can bring much more power to the team than any other Pirate offered last season (McCutchen led the team with 23 HRs, and the next best was that 16 by Garrett Jones). Both Betances and Warren could fit into the rotation right away (replacing McDonald or Correia, along with Maholm), and Romine could start catching right away in place of last year's guy in Pittsburgh... Michael McKenry (he hit a measly .222/.276/.322).
The only question that would remain after this deal is "what do they do with Swisher?" Well that one's easy... move him to DH, along with giving him some starts at 1B to rest Mark Teixeira. This would allow the Yankees to pass on Eric Chavez, thus saving a bit of money, as Nunez could handle backing up ARod. And more importantly the starting lineup, along with the starting rotation, would be set.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Yankees Also Sign Hiroki Kuroda To 1 Year Deal
Via Jack Curry on YES, the Yankees have signed Hiroki Kuroda on a 1 year deal worth 10-11 million dollars. Here is the write up
JackCurryYES Jack Curry
Big night for the Yankees. They have agreed to a 1-year deal with Kuroda, pending a physical. Deal will be between $10 and $11 million.
In a matter of an hour the Yankees rotation went from
CC
Nova
Garcia
Burnett
Hughes
to
CC
Pineda
Nova
Kuroda
Garcia/Burnett
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