Spring Training Day 2

A Day Owned By Pineda

Today was the first day that Russell Martin caught Michael Pineda down in Yankees spring training camp and he was pleasantly surprised at what he saw. Larry Rothschild has been working with Pineda and specifically on his changeup and the results seem to be "so far so good". The movement on the pitch seems to be ridiculous, in a good way, and everyone at Yankees camp is excited about it. Even Joe Girardi was "blown away" by a couple of his sliders that he threw in his bullpen session. 

Mariano Rivera has arrived at Yankees camp and has made his decision about next season whether he is going to play or not... but he is not telling. Every sign though points to this is going to be the last season for the Sandman. When you hear quotes directly from Rivera like this  

 “Even if I save 90 games. Even if they want to pay as much money as they want to, any team, (it won’t change the decision).” 

you do not expect Rivera to come back next season.It seems like the Yankees have a contingency plan or two in place with Joba, David Robertson, and maybe Rafael Soriano, but still no one is replacing Mariano Rivera. 

Raul Ibanez, fresh off of his incentive laden 1 year pact with the Yankees, expects to be in camp tomorrow. I cannot say that I am either ecstatic or upset with the signing. He was the best of the available players that fit into the specific role that we needed so we're gonna play the cards we are dealt and go with it. Here's to hoping that he could be the next in line of veterans having a resurgent season in pinstripes a la Colon and Garcia in 2011 in recent memory.

Everything has been described as "routine" so far in drills so I guess that is a good sign. Girardi also stated that everyone looks like they came to camp ready and in shape in his press conference so again, another good sign. We're less then 45 days to opening day. 

Raul Ibanez a Yankee

I can't say I'm ecstatic about it, but I am happy to report that the Yankees have agreed to sign Raul Ibanez.

The deal has a guarantee of $1.1 million, with plate appearance incentives that could get Raul another $2.9 million.

I believe the combination of Ibanez and Andruw Jones will be a big upgrade over Jorge Posada as the team's DH. The rest of the lineup is unchanged, so there's good reason to believe the Yankee offense is better than it was in 2011. Couple that with what looks to be a really formidable pitching rotation, and I'm now really looking forward to this season.

Raul Ibanez or Eric Chavez?

"What should I do?"

There is some debate among Yankee fans regarding what's more important... signing a DH or a 3B/IF. Joel Sherman said on Twitter that the Yankees only have enough in the budget, even after the AJ deal, to sign one or the other. And Bryan Hoch, on Twitter as well, said that Cashman is not sure about a return of Eric Chavez. So what do you think is best?

I took a look at the current 40-man roster to see what choices the team has within the organization, as I don't believe a 40-man roster move would be made for either position (excluding a FA signing).

I found that Chris Dickerson is the only option the team has for a DH against right-handed pitchers, who also plays the OF. Chris hit .260/.296/.360 in 55 plate appearances with the Yankees last season, and .231/.341/.325 in 247 PA with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season. More importantly, in 490 career PA in MLB his career triple-slash vs. RHP is .270/.355/.415. So it seems like he'd be a fine option, should Cashman decide against pursuing Ibanez.

Here is where I can understand why Cashman isn't so sure about Chavez. Because, unlike the "DH vs. RHP" thing, the Yankees have a few different options.

Eduardo Nunez saw 391 PA in MLB, in which he hit .276/.314/.382, and Girardi seems to like Nunez. Ramiro Pena has seen some time in MLB as well, where he's hit .233/.266/.288 in 334 MLB plate appearances, so he's certainly less idea for that bench spot than Eduardo. And finally there's Brandon Laird, who hit .260/.288/.422 in AAA last season, and saw a few MLB at bats in 2011 as well. The fact that Laird played a bit in the OF last season helps his case too.

In all I would be perfectly okay if the Yankees went with what they currently have, placing Dickerson in the "DH vs. RHP" role, and having Nunez on the bench in the IF/3B slot. But due to the fact that the team has 3 viable options, already on the 40-man roster, for the IF/3B slot I can totally understand Cashman's stance on Ibanez before Chavez.

Best 1-2 Punch in the AL East

Going by ERA+ from last season, this is how they stack up in the AL East...

Red Sox - Beckett (147) & Lester (122)

Yankees - Sabathia (147) & Pineda (103)
Rays - Shields (132) & Price (107)

Blue Jays - Romero (146) & Morrow (90)

Orioles - LOL!

When it comes to the Rays I expect Price's ERA+ to rise to around 125 (it was 144 in 2010, and he'd already thrown 142.1 innings in MLB), but at the same time I expect Shields' ERA+ to drop. James' career high ERA+ before last season was 124 in 2008, and he turned 30 last December, so I wouldn't bet on him repeating his 2011 season. Looking closer I see that Shields can attribute his success to a much lower LD% (21% in 2009, 22% in 2010, 17% in 2011), and his ground ball rate went down a bit too (43.8% for his career, to 46.2% last season).

I see no way Beckett repeats his 2011 season either. A 2.89 ERA (career 3.84), 1.026 WHIP (career 1.220), while his K-rate and BB-rate were pretty much the same as his career averages. Basically, I think Josh got lucky last year. Lester, on the other hand, has seen his ERA+ drop in each of the last 4 years. His K-rate has dropped in each of the last 3 years as well.

Over the last 4 years CC has had an ERA+ of 157, 137, 136, and 147. His K-rate rose by about 1 K per 9 from his career average, which would lead one to think he'll regress a bit. However, he gave up more hits than he normally had in his first two seasons in pinstripes. His walks dropped a bit, but not so much that it makes warning bells go off. It's hard to judge what Pineda will do, as he's only had the one year in MLB. But he was giving up less hits per 9 innings than he did in the minors, and was striking out about the same. Working with MLB coaches should do nothing but help, and his potential is an ace in MLB, so I have to think he'll get better no matter what the numbers may say (keeping in mind I'm using minor league numbers as well as MLB numbers, so not a perfect sample by any means).

I'm not going to bother with the other two teams, because it's just not worth it. So this is how I expect the AL East 1-2 punches to pan out this coming season...

Yankees - Sabathia (135) & Pineda (115)
Rays - Shields (115) & Price (125)
Red Sox - Beckett (120) & Lester (120)

Blue Jays - Romero should have a pretty good year, but after that who knows?

Orioles - I don't see one pitcher worth mentioning here

Although the total ERA+ for the Rays and Sox are the same, I put the Rays in front due to the big drop from Shields (which I'm not 100% sure about), and the potential of David Price.

Pictures From Spring Training Day 1

Early Stretching

Hiroki Kuroda Wants "To Win A Championship"

Some Guy Named Jeter Taking BP

Joba, Rivera, Hughes, and Nova in order

Jeter and Ramiro Pena Laughing

Mason Williams

Joba and Nova Throwing With Larry Rothschild

Michael Pineda

CC Sabathia

Andy Pettitte May Be Coming Back To The Yankees

I'm Back?

According to the New York Post the Yankees have offered Andy Pettitte an invite to Spring Training... only this time as a special instructor. Any Andy Pettitte on my baseball team is better then no Andy Pettitte so I'm excited about this. Also, to add, David Wells will be back for his 2nd consecutive spring instructor job. Just imagine what those two minds and stories could do for our young guys. 

Welcome To Spring Training

The countdowns are over, the speculation is over, it is good ole baseball time down in Tampa St. Pete FL. Pitchers and catchers are finishing their physicals, if need be, and ready to do some light work outs.

Joe Girardi's flight has been delayed so his annual press conference will also be delayed, originally scheduled for 11 am this morning.

Jorge Posada's old corner locker now belongs to catcher Francisco Cervelli. Andy Pettitte's old locker now belongs to Hiroki Kuroda, no pressure Hiroki.

Also in our last slate of news Hiroki Kuroda has decided to wear #18 this season. Michael Pineda has decided to wear #35 and Andruw Jones will wear #22 this season. We are still waiting to either Sign Ibanez, Chavez, Guerrero, and/or Damon so stay tuned.

UPDATE: Jorge Posada's #20 was NOT assigned, which I like. I see it being retired.

Countdown To Pitchers & Catchers

TOMORROW boys and girls. Tomorrow is the day that pitchers and catchers report to George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa St. Petersburgh Florida for the start of Spring Training. Hopefully by tomorrow we will have our bench filled out with the many choices we have and the Burnett trade is official. Enjoy your last day before baseball is back in full swing Yankees fans

Raul Ibanez vs. Johnny Damon

Why do people like me?

Now that AJ Burnett has been traded (pending the approval of MLB), attention has been turned to who the Yankees will sign. Specifically when it comes to the "DH vs. RHP" spot.

The three names that have been discussed the most are Raul Ibanez, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui. Well, Matsui has pretty much been counted out due to him being the closest one could get to being a DH-only, while the Yankees want a guy that can play the OF if/when needed. We've been reading about the Yankees being more interested in Ibanez over Damon, but I wanted to look into those players since many Yankee fans would like to see Johnny return to New York.

Now, before I go further, yes... I have covered this before. But I'm still hearing about Damon, so I can't help but repeat myself. So here goes...

In 2011 Johnny Damon hit .255/.314/.401 vs. RHP in 457 plate appearances, while Raul Ibanez hit .256/.307/.440 in 437 plate appearances. In 2010 Damon hit .270/.352/.408 vs. RHP in 419 plate appearances, while Raul Ibanez hit .277/.366/.455 vs. RHP in 445 plate appearances. So against right-handers, which is what the Yankees are looking for, Raul has hit better the last two seasons.

As for last season, Raul played in the OF in 1196.2 innings, while Johnny played the OF in only 84 innings. So it should go without saying that Raul, while not a great defender by any means, would be better out there for the Yankees in 2012.

So I really want to know... why are fans all about Johnny Damon?

How does the AJ Burnett trade affect the Yankees payroll?

Yeah, I'd try to hide the tears rolling down my cheeks if I found out I was going from the Yankees to the Pirates too.

Ever since the rumor of trading AJ Burnett to Pittsburgh started I wondered how the money exchanged would affect the Yankees' payroll, in terms of the MLB Luxury Tax.

Would the money that Pittsburgh would be on the hook for (now we know it will be $13 million) be subtracted from what's left on the contract (leaving $20 million), and the difference would be split among the last two years of the Burnett's deal (which would mean the Yankees would take a hit of $10 million in 2012 and 2013)? As I originally thought.

Or maybe the Yankees would be hit with all the money left on the deal in 2012 ($20 million)? Then again, since this seems to be all about freeing up money to sign a part-time DH and back-up IF, a highly doubt that. Otherwise the Yankees would be looking at having to pay an extra $3.5 million this season, instead of saving money.

Well I think I found it thanks to SteveTheUmp.com, who I've used before for information regarding the way the MLB Luxury Tax affects things.

Payroll figures are for 40-man rosters and include salaries and prorated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions, such as money included in trades.

Well, it turns out that the Pirates will be paying Burnett $5 million in 2012, and $8 million in 2013, per the terms of the trade. So according to the quote above, that means the Yankees will take a hit of $11.5 million in 2012, and $8.5 million in 2013, as that will be how the money is given to Pittsburgh.

This means the Yankees will only have an extra $5 million to "play with" this off-season, as opposed to the $6.5 million I originally thought, which still seems like enough to get Raul Ibanez and Eric Chavez. But the team has also freed up a little bit more money than I thought for the next off-season. Not that the extra $1.5 million will be enough to sign Cole Hamels, but both Eric Chavez and Freddy Garcia made $1.5 million last season, so that money can come in handy.