Friday, July 1, 2016

Buy or Sell?

Jon Heyman's latest news regarding the possibility of the Yankees trading Aroldis Chapman and/or Andrew Miller may upset some fans.

It turns out that one Yankees official said the chances of the Yankees signing or extending Chapman are as high as 50-50. 

Sure, the team could always trade him away and still re-sign him as a free agent, but I really don't think that would be a good plan. What if Aroldis ends up really liking his new team, and the area? The Cubs have been in talks about possibly acquiring Chapman for a while, and I can absolutely see a player liking Cubs fans and the organization enough to want to stay.

The traffic sucks, but it's still a nice place.

Besides, there's a chance being traded away could leave a bad taste in a player's mouth. Even if Brian Cashman were to tell him that they want to sign him in the offseason, that doesn't mean Aroldis would be okay with the move. 

Then there's Andrew Miller, who should fetch the Yankees a much nicer return should he be traded away, thanks to him being better and under contract for two more seasons at just $9 million a year (a steal for a closer of his caliber).

That same Yankees official that spoke about Chapman earlier went on to say that the Yankees asking price for Miller is so high that chances are "less than one percent" he gets dealt.

That bit of news doesn't bother me. Because one, the Yankees asking price... at least at this point... should be sky high. And two, keeping him around for at least two more years at a very good price can only help the team.

I may be reading this wrong, but according to this Yankees official that spoke with Heyman, it sounds like the Yankees would like to keep both Chapman and Miller around. Thinking back to my article about the team's payroll and future, I'm not sure how that would work. But how awesome would it be to keep this three-headed monster around?

There is one more thing in Jon Heyman's article, and it really bothers me...

Jon notes that one rival said the Yankees are one of about a dozen teams looking at starting pitchers to buy.

"No!"

Starting pitchers, even "okay" ones, do not come cheap. Especially during the season. So the Yankees would have to trade away a decent package of prospects, which would be incredibly stupid for a team that's rebuilding (yes... REBUILDING... deal with it). I don't mean to say somebody like Aaron Judge or Jorge Mateo could be dealt, but I can easily see guys like Rob Refsnyder and Ben Gamel saying "b-bye" thanks to them having MLB experience and being expendable (at least in the eyes of management).

The Yankees have never been sellers (whether you can call them that when they traded away Rickey Henderson in 1989 is at least a bit debatable), and until they actually make a move I can't bring myself to believe they'll be sellers now. Even if Cashman and Company believe it's the right thing to do, when it comes down to it I can't see them basically giving up on this season by the end of July.

6 comments:

  1. Exactly correct. Yankees will be buyers.

    I look forward then to add offense. At least a right hand power bat. (Braun, Meyers, Kemp, Gourriell,etc.)
    Another right hand relief option.
    Always on the hunt for starting pitching.

    Not that far from being a very good team.

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    1. yea, a right handed bat and a right handed relief pitcher will make us champions... absolutely not bro

      nobody goes from bottom run production to champions with a single right handed bat. and you're considering scrapping the mediocre farm system.

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  2. It just doesn't make sense. If the goal that these jerkoffs constantly keep preaching is to get below the salary cap, and with the contracts of teix and beltran coming off the books, we will be left with just teix' 20+ mil... who the hell are we getting with that? Edwin encarnacion? He might be the only one capable of replacing beltran's offensive production... and he's not taking a 2 year contract.

    beyond that, we will be down a starting pitcher, and let's say Mitchell replaces nova... we are still looking at a rotation with Tanaka, Eovaldi, Pineda, Sabathia, Mitchell??? with zero middle relief. Even if we trade prospects to upgrade pitching staff, we will still be sub-par for those years that we insisted in signing chapman, and further depleting our #17 ranked farm system, and probably drop our farm system to what... #24?

    And sure, everyone can get diarrhea of the mouth about signing machado and harper, but for the goal of getting below the salary, the numbers don't add up.

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    1. Yes, the Yankees want to get under the Luxury Tax threshold, but only for one season. Doing that resets the amount they have to pay towards the Luxury Tax.

      Currently, the Yankees pay 50% of the amount over the threshold ($189 million), due to having gone over in 4+ consecutive years. Last year the team had to give the league about $26 million. By getting under the threshold for one year (and that threshold will be going up), that percentage drops to 17.5, which means the Yankees would save a quite a chunk of money.

      With Tex and Beltran's contracts gone after this season (totaling about $36 million a year), and Alex and CC's contracts gone after 2017 (totaling about $50 million a year... remember, the Luxury Tax uses average annual value of a contract), the team should absolutely be able to get under the threshold for the 2018 season.

      And since Machado and Harper don't hit free agency until 2019, the plan gets a little clearer.

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    2. Right on Daryl. They aren't spending money next year or the year after, Hal has alligator arms. The only way he spends as I have said in the past is if Murdoch lays the hammer on him about lost revenue on the TV deal, otherwise the Coupon Clipper laughs all the way to the bank

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  3. If Murdoch doesn't like Hal and his penny pinching ways, he will take over the whole Yes company an then he will have a club to hit Hal over the head with. If the team has no out let for their games...the fans will move on!
    I don't think he would do that but he might tell Hal he will not pay the Yankee team if they are not a good product and cut his payments for the rights to play the Yank games.

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