Standing Pat Means Getting Worse

The New York Yankees have what many believe to be a comfortable lead in the American League East Division race with the July 31^st trading deadline looming in a couple of days. The Toronto Blue Jays have already made the most significant trade to date when the team sent Jose Reyes and three pitching prospects to the Colorado Rockies for Troy Tulowitzki while teams like the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, New York Mets, the Kansas City Royals and others seem to be going all in. The window for the New York Yankees to win with this team is extremely small, it may be 2015 or bust with all the aging veterans on the team, and standing pat at the deadline is not an option. In a seller’s market where all the teams behind the Yankees are getting better standing pat means getting worse for New York.

Truth be told, as we looked at earlier this morning, the Toronto Blue Jays only marginally improved as a team with their acquisition of Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins while the Boston Red Sox are making moves towards the future. The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays are the real dark horses in the division though, in my opinion of course, as Baltimore has already had discussions regarding Justin Upton of the San Diego Padres while the Rays have the farm system to go and get any player they want within reason. The division is not what worries me the most, it is the postseason. The postseason is an entirely new season and the two teams that are legitimate threats to the Yankees in the American League are improving as well.

The Kansas City Royals sent three left-handed starting pitchers including Brandon Finnegan to the Cincinnati Reds for ace RHP Johnny Cueto to begin the final countdown to the trading deadline. The Royals really had one weakness on this team and they shored that up a bit with their acquisition of Cueto. In Cueto the team has a real threat that could win three games in a seven game series or two games in a five game series. Cueto isn’t exactly playoff tested nor is he tested in the American League where he won’t see much small ball or pitchers hitting but you have to think for what Kansas City gave up the team is much better. 

The Angels are seemingly strapped for cash but have been able to solidify their outfield position and their weakest link with the acquisition of Shane Victorino from the Boston Red Sox. The cost of infielder Josh Rutledge was minimal while Boston chipped in some cash to make the deal worth it for both sides. The Angels have a good pitching staff, a filthy bullpen and an offense to match and one of their only “automatic outs” in the lineup, Matt Joyce, has now been platooned.

The Yankees are falling farther and farther behind with every acquisition another team makes. Standing pat is not an option, standing pat is getting worse and opening the door for the rest of the American League to steal #28 away from the team, the city and the franchise.

MLB July 31st Trade Deadline Updates for 7/27

The July 31st trade deadline comes to an end this Friday at 4:00 pm ET and the Hot Stove is currently on fire right now. Let's get caught up...

• The New York Mets acquired Tyler Clippard and cash, around $1 million, for a pitcher that has never seen above High-A Advanced ball in the minor leagues. Why isn't he wearing Yankees pinstripes right now?

• The Yankees talked to the Phillies about Cole Hamels but are still unwilling to give up Luis Severino or Aaron Judge while Ruben Amaro Jr. wants at least one of the two top prospects in the Yankees system for Hamels. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Texas Rangers seem like the most likely landing spots for Hamels. 

• New York discussed a deal with the Cincinnati Reds that would have sent Ivan Nova to the Reds and Johnny Cueto to the Yankees but obviously no deal was struck before Cueto went to the Kansas City Royals. He will make his Royals debut on Friday. 

• The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim acquired outfielder Shane Victorino from the Boston Red Sox for infielder Josh Rutledge. 

• The Chicago Cubs released Edwin Jackson which means over/under two days before Jackson is the new Esmil Rogers in the Yankees bullpen. 

• The Yankees continue to show varying degrees of interest in Ben Zobrist, Joaquin Benoit, Craig Kimbrel, Mat Latos, Aroldis Chapman and Ben Zobrist. David Price too if the Detroit Tigers decide to make him available. 

2013 World Series Prediction - Brian Danuff

 

Although the Yankees aren’t in it, it’d be foolish to miss out on this year’s Fall Classic. Sure, our rival Boston Red Sox may be vying for their third championship in ten years, but so are the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s a rare matchup of truly the two best teams(record-wise) from this summer. St. Louis boasts another club full of homegrown talent, while Boston is riding off of underestimated returns from some of the most overlooked free-agent signings of the offseason. Both lineups are stacked top to bottom, but the Cardinals get the edge in my view thanks to the Ruthian postseason efforts of Carlos Beltran. The pitching rotations are pretty even as well, with Adam Wainwright and 22-year old Michael Wacha proving to be just as good of a 1-2 punch as Boston’s long established duo of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. With Wainwright’s and Wacha’s recent dominance of the Dodgers, I’d have to say St. Louis wins out in the battle of the aces, however. The only aspect of the teams where the Red Sox have the upper hand has to be the bullpen. Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara have been unhittable, while the Redbirds constantly mix-and-match between Carlos Martinez, Edward Mujica, John Axford, and Trevor Rosenthal to narrowly close out ball games. We are in for a terrific World Series that despite taking place in Fenway Park, will feature intense pitching duels a la the ALCS, with one or two hits being the difference in each game. That’s why I truly have no idea what to expect. But if I had to pick one team to be crowned 2013 World Series Champion, it would have to be the Boston Red Sox. It pains me to say it, but home field advantage [which Mariano Rivera helped secure for the American League] will be a deciding factor. I think the series will at least extend to 6 games, and possibly 7, but to me it makes no difference as in each game I see Boston winning. It’d be a storybook ending to a magical Red Sox season, and a predictable end to a disastrous 2013 campaign for the New York Yankees.

 

PREDICTION – Red Sox win World Series in 7 games.

Victorino Comes Off The Board, Signs With Red Sox

The Red Sox are using some of the money that they found when they traded away Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Adrian Gonzalez to name a few. Yesterday Mike Napoli came off the board and today the Sox grabbed another guy the Yankees had their eye on with Shane Victorino. Shane signed a three year deal worth $39 million to play for Boston. I cannot say that I was overly excited to have Victorino on the team but that does not mean I wanted him to go to Boston either.

How About Shane Victorino?

This plane may carry our new outfielder.

Jon Heyman reported last night that the Yankees are interested in Shane Victorino, and went further by saying several teams are willing to go 3 years for the center fielder. In the same article it's noted that Shane is willing to move to a corner outfield spot, as he's played center field in nearly 80% of the innings he's played in his career (Victorino has never been a DH, having played his entire career in the National League).

Before the 2012 season the idea of acquiring the Flyin' Hawaiian was a good one. Shane's batting line up to that point in his career was .278/.334/.438, and he'd averaged 15 home runs and 26 stolen bases a season between 2009 and 2011. On top of the offense he provided, Victorino was considered a good defender in center field, and a very good corner outfielder.

However, 2012 did happen, and Shane had a poor season at the plate hitting .255/.321/.383. He was able to steal a career-high 39 bases, but only hit 11 home runs, and tripled 7 times after doing it 39 times over the previous 3 seasons. So the desire to see the guy in pinstripes went down a bit.

No! That's not what I wanted for Christmas!

I'll repeat... My desire to see the guy in pinstripes went down a bit. At 31 years I believe the guy has plenty left in the tank. Taking Shane's age into account, and the fact his poor 2012 should bring down his price in free agency, I'm cool with the Yankees possibly signing him.

Shane Victorino's walk and strikeout rates in 2012 remained around his career averages of 11.6% and 8.2%, as his rates were 12% and 8%. Nor is he watching more strikes, or swinging at more strikes, than he has throughout his career. Shane also put 34% balls into play, just as he's always done. Finally, Victorino has been pretty healthy in his career, having missed 97 games in 9 years.

The only thing that truly concerns me about Victorino is the fact that his line drive percentage has gone down in each of the last 4 years. It went from 20% in 2009, to 19% in 2010, to 16% in 2011, and finally 15% this past season. Perhaps a BABIP of .278, which is 21 points lower than his career mark of .296, was the problem. Not to mention that he hit a few more balls on the ground this past season than he has in years.
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Like anything else it comes down to just how much the player will cost. Shane will likely command more per year than the $14.7 million Fangraphs figured he was worth in 2012, but as long as it's not much more than that, and only for 3 years, then I'd be happy to invite him into our world.

Victorino The Newest Dodger

With the Dodgers trading for Shane Victorino today, after adding Hanley Ramirez last week, I thought I'd add a bit to the Trade Reaction that was posted yesterday.

I had the Dodgers winning the NL West already. Although the pitching for the Dodgers and Giants is close, I  though LA had the better offense. Shane's line of .261/.324/.401 so far this season isn't going to give the Dodger lineup that big a boost, but it does improve their situation. After all, Victorino does have 24 stolen bases, so when he does get on base he's a pest. And seeing as how the Dodgers have gotten -0.9 WAR out of their left-fielders (I'm assuming Kemp stays in CF), it can only make them better.

However, it still doesn't mean anything to the Yankees, as I expect the National League Pennant winner to be one of Washington or St. Louis.

Mock Trade : Shane Victorino For DJ Mitchell

The Yankees need an outfielder, no if's and's or but's about it. Brett Gardner is more then likely gone for the year and now Swisher is out with his third or fourth leg injury this season including Spring Training. Shane Victorino is having his worst season of his career hitting a triple slash of .253/.316/.390. Granted, in limited time, Raul Ibanez only has a triple slash of .242/.301/.458 but Victorino is a speedy base stealing defensive first kind of outfielder... kind of like Brett Gardner. Add on top of that his $9.5 million salary, which will obviously be pro rated, and it seems like the last place Phillies would be willing to move him for cheap. That is where DJ Mitchell comes in.

DJ Mitchell , just for the record, is one guy that I absolutely love having on this team. He reminds me so much of Ramiro Mendoza in the Yankee Dynasty with that sinker, that composure, that small frame, etc. He has pitched well above his head this season in very limited action in the big leagues. If it were up to me I would rather give up SP Adam Warren then DJ but Warren is a starter and the Phillies may not be looking for one of those.The Phillies need a ton of help but I think they think that their major concern is the bullpen. DJ Mitchell is young and has 6 years of team control and is cheap, something a lot of Phillies cannot say right now, and could be attractive for the Phillies. 

Would the Phillies make this trade? I cannot say obviously. Would the Yankees and should the Yankees make this trade if it becomes available to them? Unfortunately I say , because I would rather a long term plan with Upton and save Mitchell, they have to.

Yankees Trade Targets : Shane Victorino

UPDATE:

Gardner said that he felt some soreness in his elbow after his rehab game. Joe Girardi is concerned and puzzled by this. We do not know if it is just fatigue, much like David Aardsma, or if it is yet another set back. Only time will tell...

The Yankees seem to be monitoring the left field and outfield market this year at the deadline. We should have a pretty good idea of how Brett Gardner is going to be by July31st. Brett Gardner is set to come back on July 27th to the big leagues, barring any more setback. The Yankees seem to be looking for a Plan B though and one of those plan B's is the Phillies Shane Victorino.

The flying' Hawaiian Shane Victorino has been the Phillies center fielder for what seems like forever but now that they are losing he seems likely to be traded this July. Shane is currently on the final year of a three year $22 million deal. Victorino has a ton of speed and would a terrific replacement for Gardner, if needed, both defensively, offensively, and on the base paths. It is widely thought that the Phillies will not be able to get any compensation for him so he should come pretty cheap if he is traded. Not to mention that he is not having a great season anyway only helps our case.

Assuming that Brett Gardner cannot come back this season and assuming that we cannot get Justin Upton this season then I would be all for Shane Victorino coming to the Bronx. He has lots of playoff experience and is basically an older version of Brett Gardner. He would fit right into the bottom of that lineup and would give us the versatility that builds championships. Bring on Shane Victorino as an obvious plan C kind of situation behind Gardner and Upton.