Earlier today we took a look at the ZIPS predictions from
Dan Szymborski over at Fangraphs and showed what his system thought the Yankees
would do in 2016. We also prefaced that post with the fact that Fangraphs,
unlike Baseball Reference, had individual and unique content on their site and
those ZIPS predictions were one of those posts we alluded to. This is an
official Fangraphs prediction model for the 2016 season that focuses more on
runs, run preventions and wins rather than fancy stats and analytics like the
ZIPS system. How did the Yankees do in this one?
Fangraphs shows no regression and no improvement in the win
column for the New York Yankees in 2016. According to the predictions the
Bombers will repeat their 87-win season that landed them in the postseason in
2015 which will give the Yankees the fourth best record in all of baseball. The
three teams that Fangraphs believes will have more wins than the Yankees are
the Chicago Cubs, the Washington Nationals, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the
Yankees biggest division rivals, the Boston Red Sox (92 wins). Not the Toronto
Blue Jays, not the Baltimore Orioles, not the Pittsburgh Pirates and not the
St. Louis Cardinals.
Fangraphs predicts the Yankees will score 4.5 runs per game
and allow 4.18 runs per game which are both downgraded from their 2015 totals of
4.72 RS/G and 4.31 RA/G. The Yankees had the second most runs scored in all of
baseball in 2015 with Alex Rodriguez hitting 33 home runs and Mark Teixeira
looking more like the 2009 version of himself than the 2010 and beyond version
of himself so a slight regression should have been expected. The team also
added Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen and will presumably have a full season of
Luis Severino which should also explain why the slight downfall in runs allowed
was also prevalent on the Fangraphs predictions.
The Yankees biggest upgrade though will likely come at the
second base position. In 2015 the Yankees used six different second baseman
including Stephen Drew, Robert Refsnyder, Brendan Ryan, Dustin Ackley and
others and they combined to hit .245 with 65 RBI and 63 runs scored but in 2016
the team will likely use one second baseman for the most part, Starlin Castro.
Castro alone hit 0265 with 69 RBI and 52 runs scored in 2015 and that was a
down season for him that included a benching for defensive purposed and a
position switch to second base. While at second base Castro hit .339 for the
Chicago Cubs leading them to the National League Championship Series. In a
snapshot the Yankees offense should get a huge boost at the position, finally.
The Fangraphs predictions are not 100% and truth be told
they are usually a little low in most cases. The Kansas City Royals won 95
games last season and the World Series championship while Fangraphs predicted
the team would have just 79 wins so take these predictions with a grain of
salt. If the Yankees can match or exceed the 87-win total the website predicted
I think many fans of the team would be happy with that, I have to think that I
would personally.
For your reference here is the complete list for the AL East
according to Fangraphs:
2016 AL East
Standings (per FanGraphs projections)
1. Boston Red Sox
(2015 record: 78-84)
2016 projection: 92-70 | 4.75 runs scored per game, 4.11
runs allowed
2. New York Yankees (2015
record: 87-75)
2016 projection: 87-75 | 4.50 runs scored per game, 4.18
runs allowed
3. Toronto Blue Jays
(2015 record: 93-69)
2016 projection: 84-78 | 4.75 runs allowed per game, 4.57
runs allowed
4. Tampa Bay Rays
(2015 record: 80-82)
2016 projection: 82-80 | 4.16 runs scored per game, 4.08
runs allowed
5. Baltimore Orioles (2015
record: 81-81)
2016 projection: 76-86 | 4.37 runs scored per game, 4.65
runs allowed
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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)