2015 Postseason Yankees Farm System Top 30 Rankings

by: Ben Embry (guest contributor from The Bronx Empire)

The Yankees farm system had a terrific year in 2015. Luis Severino forced his way to the Majors and met even the most optimistic fans' expectations. Greg Bird similarly arrived in the Bronx and quite possibly Wally Pipp'ed the team's All Star 1B stalwart Mark Teixeira, (ok probably not but on a team more progressive than the Yankees it might be possible). Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, Rob Refsnyder and other prospects all gave the team strong contributions. The future is bright. Ironically this will result in the farm system being ranked lower next year than it did at the beginning of 2015 because Severino and Bird graduated due to their service time in August and September.  This just goes to show: farm system rankings aren't the end-all-be-all.

First, before the rankings I have a disclosure: I am not a scout. I do not communicate directly with scouts. I do not regularly watch the prospects in person, on television, or on the Internet. My opinions are informed by websites and publications such as Baseball America, Fangraphs, and ESPN.com and interactions with fans and writers on social media. I am simply a fan who is expressing his opinion; take it for what it's worth.

Ok, here are the Yankees' top 30 prospects:

Rank	Name	POS
1	Aaron Judge	RF
2	Jorge Mateo	SS
3	Gary Sanchez	C
4	James Kaprielian	SP
5	Wilkerman Garcia	SS/3B
6	Domingo Acevedo	SP
7	Jacob Lindgren	RP
8	Rob Refsnyder	2B/LF
9	Eric Jagielo	3B/1B
10	Rookie Davis	SP
11	Tyler Wade	SS
12	Ian Clarkin	SP
13	Hoy-Jun Park	SS
14	Miguel Andujar	3B
15	Abiatal Avelino	SS/2B
16	Luis Torrens	C
17	Jake Cave	CF
18	Mason Williams	CF
19	Brady Lail	SP
20	Angel Aguilar	SS/3B
21	Slade Heathcott	CF
22	Drew Finley	SP
23	Domingo German	SP
24	Dustin Fowler	CF/RF
25	Austin DeCarr	SP
26	Juan de Leon	CF/RF
27	Dermis Garcia	3B
28	Leonardo Molina	CF
29	Thairo Estrada	SS
30	Nelson Gomez	3B

Let's compare the last list to this one.  First, players who were in the previous rankings but not this one, (including previous ranking):

1. Luis Severino (graduated)
4. Greg Bird (graduated)
22. Kyle Holder (out of top 30)

And now, the players who were not in the previous ranking but are now in this one, (including current ranking):

5. Wilkerman Garcia
14. Hoy Jun-Park
30. Nelson Gomez

For those who like deep dives, here's a top 30 hitters list:

Rank	Player	Position	Born
1	Aaron Judge	RF	1992
2	Jorge Mateo	SS	1995
3	Gary Sanchez	C	1992
4	Wilkerman Garcia	SS/3B	1998
5	Rob Refsnyder	2B/LF	1991
6	Eric Jagielo	3B/1B	1992
7	Tyler Wade	SS	1994
8	Hoy-Jun Park	SS	1996
9	Miguel Andujar	3B	1995
10	Abiatal Avelino	SS/2B	1995
11	Luis Torrens	C	1996
12	Jake Cave	CF	1992
13	Mason Williams	CF	1991
14	Angel Aguilar	SS/3B	1995
15	Slade Heathcott	CF	1990
16	Dustin Fowler	CF/RF	1994
17	Juan de Leon	CF/RF	1998
18	Dermis Garcia	3B	1998
19	Leonardo Molina	CF	1997
20	Thairo Estrada	SS	1996
21	Nelson Gomez	3B	1997
22	Jhalan Jackson	OF	1993
23	Kyle Holder	SS	1994
24	Tyler Austin	RF/1B	1991
25	Ben Gamel	RF	1992
26	Miguel Flames	C/3B	1997
27	Diego Castillo	SS/2B	1997
28	Trey Amburgey	OF	1994
29	Alexander Palma	RF	1995
30	Tony Renda	2B	1991

And now, the pitchers:

Rank	Player	Position	Born
1	James Kaprielian	SP	1994
2	Domingo Acevedo	SP	1994
3	Jacob Lindgren	RP	1993
4	Rookie Davis	SP	1993
5	Ian Clarkin	SP	1995
6	Brady Lail	SP	1993
7	Drew Finley	SP	1996
8	Domingo German	SP	1992
9	Austin DeCarr	SP	1995
10	Jordan Montgomery	SP	1992
11	Cale Coshow	SP/RP	1992
12	Jonathan Holder	SP	1993
13	Jeff Degano	SP	1992
14	Simon de la Rosa	SP	1993
15	Ty Hensley	SP	1993
16	Vicente Campos	SP/RP	1992
17	Nick Rumbelow	RP	1991
18	Nick Goody	RP	1991
19	James Pazos	RP	1991
20	Josh Rogers	SP	1994
21	Tyler Webb	RP	1990
22	Gilmael Troya	SP/RP	1997
23	Alexander Vargas	SP	1997
24	Johnny Barbato	RP	1992
25	Luis Cedeno	SP/RP	1994
26	Jordan Foley	SP/RP	1993
27	Chance Adams	RP	1994
28	Miguel Sulbaran	SP/RP	1994
29	Chaz Hebert	SP	1992
30	Caleb Smith	SP/RP	1991

Well, let me know what you think. My Twitter handle is @thebronxempire and my email is bembry24@gmail.com. I'll update the list this fall after the season. Ok, have a good day!

2015 Yankees: Didi Gregorius 2015 Highlights

If you look close enough you can see the ghost of Derek Jeter flying off his rocket right arm.

Will Rhymes, What Are Your Thoughts?

Much of the baseball world either went to sleep discussing or woke up to discuss the Chase Utley slide that ultimately ended Ruben Tejada's season for the New York Mets in the NLDS over the weekend. Utley slid late, bottom line, and whether the slide was dirty or technically in the rule book is being discussed around every water cooler this week but I'd prefer to focus on something else. As you remember when Jonathan Papelbon was seen on film choking Bryce Harper in the Washington Nationals writer and reporter CJ Nitkowski pooled many former and current MLB players asking their opinions on the situation in what quickly became a controversial article for Fox Sports.

I halfway expected to see a similar type article from someone out there either damning or defending Chase Utley and while I haven't seen a head-turner like CJ's I did see a tweet from a former member of the Washington Nationals organization, Will Rhymes. Rhymes hasn't seen the Major Leagues since the 2012 season but has been in the minor league system for Washington for the last two seasons and was one of the more vocal about the Utley slide.

Rhymes tweet can be seen above and his punishment would be pretty harsh if he were making the decisions, a suspension until Tejada is healthy again. Now in no way am I trying to compare the two instances, because they are different in almost every case, but I truly wonder what his opinion was on the choke of Harper. I asked him on Twitter but of course I have not received an answer as of the time of this writing.

Utley should be suspended until Tejada is healthy. In rugby they call it a duty of care for opponent. should be adopted by baseball.

— Will Rhymes (@willrhymes) October 11, 2015

Are the two instances in any way, shape or form similar? Should Utley be suspended for his late slide and for injuring Tejads? Honestly I don't know. The Utley slide wasn't all that much worse than Didi Gregorius's slide in the AL Wild Card game but the difference was Jose Altuve was not injured on the play. That may be the difference and I truly think Rhymes, being a second baseman, is a little sensitive to the subject since it could have been him. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe he will clear that up for me. If he does I'll update the post.

@willrhymes What were your thoughts on the Papelbon and Harper incident? Should Papelbon have been punished? Punished more/less?

— Greedy Pinstripes (@GreedyStripes) October 11, 2015

How Will Qualifying Offers Affect Yankees Free Agency Plans?

With the qualifying offer number set at $15.8 million and a laundry list of players that I predicted to receive said qualifying offer earlier today I wanted to take a stab at whether those offers would affect the Yankees free agency plans for 2016. Usually you can use the past as an indicator or a stepping stone for the future but honestly that won't help us here. Before the 2014 season the team wen't crazy on the free agent market surrendering draft picks for Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury while last year the team stockpiled draft picks in an effort to jump start and rebuild the farm system.

The Yankees are barely a season removed from their international haul that cost them $30 million for a crew of 16-year old international free agents and the team is also less than six months removed from adding James Kaprielian, Kyle Holder, Jeff Degano and others to the farm from the MLB Draft. With this season's free agency crop as deep as it has been in recent memory this may be the season that proves to be the first free agent market that's worth mortgaging the future for, especially with the Yankees picking at the end of the first round once again in the 2016 Draft. Below is a list of players that I feel like will receive a qualifying offer and the bolded players are players I believe the Yankees will be interested in, not necessarily sign.

LHP Wei-Yin Chen - Baltimore Orioles
1B/DH Chris Davis - Baltimore Orioles
C Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles
OF Jason Heyward - St. Louis Cardinals
RHP Jeff Samardzija - Chicago White Sox
OF Dextor Fowler - Chicago Cubs
RHP Zack Greinke - Los Angeles Dodgers (if he opts out)
OF Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals (if he declines his player option worth $12.5 million)
RHP Hisashi Iwakuma - Seattle Mariners (They want him back anyway)
RHP John Lackey - St. Louis Cardinals
OF Justin Upton - San Diego Padres
RHP Jordan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals
LHP Brett Anderson - Los Angeles Dodgers
INF Ian Desmond - Washington Nationals
INF Daniel Murphy - New York Mets
OF Colby Rasmus - Houston Astros

The Yankees will not receive any draft compensation for their free agents this season, Stephen Drew, Chris Capuano and Chris Young, so any players signed that are attached to draft pick compensation will negatively affect the future of the farm system in my opinion. With that said I think the Yankees could target a David Price, a Mike Leake, a Ben Zobrist or a Johnny Cueto and avoid the draft pick compensation or the team may give up a pick for Justin Upton or Jordan Zimmerman. Other than that it looks like the Yankees will be picking somewhere around the #18-22 position next June for the 2016 MLB First Year Players Draft. There just isn't that's realistic enough to give up a draft pick for. Greinke is not coming to the Bronx, Zimmerman probably isn't either and Heyward is just a pipe dream that I will hold onto all offseason long.

Was the Mark Teixeira Injury the End of the 2015 Season

The New York Yankees were flying high through the month of July and held a substantial lead in the American League East entering the month of August. The Toronto Blue Jays were fresh off making multiple acquisitions including David Price, LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe and Troy Tulowitzki while New York added Dustin Ackley. The Yankees didn't feel like they needed to add much or had the room to add much, and at the time I agreed with that stance, but we all know how that worked out. The Yankees lost their pitcher with the most wins in Nathan Eovaldi and they also lost their best offensive weapon in Mark Teixeira. Essentially Eovaldi was replaced with Luis Severino after Michael Pineda returned off the disabled list while Greg Bird essentially replaces Teixeira at first base. Was the Teixeira injury the end of the Yankees season or did Greg Bird do enough to essentially replace his production?

I am a firm believer that along with a general eye test that the stats don't lie. When looking at the stats, which I have given to you below, you can see that Bird either met or exceeded Teixeira's average statistics for the remainder of the month of August and the month of September. Bird was great, no doubt about it, but he's no Teixeira.

Teixeira:

Split	G	GS	PA	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
April/March	21	20	90	13	16	5	8	18	0	13	14	.216	.322	.608	.930
May	27	26	107	12	23	4	6	17	1	16	12	.258	.383	.506	.889
June	24	24	101	10	22	6	5	19	0	12	18	.259	.366	.506	.872
July	23	23	102	17	29	7	9	19	1	13	21	.333	.422	.724	1.146
August	16	15	62	5	10	0	3	6	0	5	20	.175	.242	.333	.575

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Bird:

Year	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2015	46	178	157	26	41	9	11	31	0	19	53	.261	.343	.529	.871	137

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

The Yankees offense was exposed against left-handed starting pitching at the end of the season, no if's and's or but's about it. Replacing that middle of the order bat that gave Alex Rodriguez plenty of fastballs to hit and Brian McCann enough chances for RBI was damn near impossible for the Yankees. Bird did great hitting clutch home run after clutch home run but he wasn't protecting anyone in the lineup. He didn't make any opposing pitchers fear him and no opposing pitchers feared this Yankees offense for the last month and a half or so of the season. Maybe the stats do lie, but like I said you also have to use the general eye test as well. That's when the stats don't lie and they don't here either for the reasons I have stated above.

Get well soon Mark, the team needs you in 2016, gluten-free or not.

Predicting the 2016 Qualifying Offers

While many fans are still in full blown "MLB Playoffs" mode I myself am more focused on the 2016 season. Sure I have been watching the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals series rooting for the Cubs and I've watched about a game of the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers series but I'm not glued to my television by any means. I am more focused on the New York Yankees and the 2016 season and this week we learned that the qualifying offer for the 2016 season would be set at $15.8 million, up from $15.5 million in 2015.

Which players do I think get a qualifying offer for 2016?

LHP Wei-Yin Chen - Baltimore Orioles
1B/DH Chris Davis - Baltimore Orioles
C Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles
OF Jason Heyward - St. Louis Cardinals
RHP Jeff Samardzija - Chicago White Sox
OF Dextor Fowler - Chicago Cubs
RHP Zack Greinke - Los Angeles Dodgers (if he opts out)
OF Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals (if he declines his player option worth $12.5 million)
RHP Hisashi Iwakuma - Seattle Mariners (They want him back anyway)
RHP John Lackey - St. Louis Cardinals
OF Justin Upton - San Diego Padres
RHP Jordan Zimmerman - Washington Nationals
LHP Brett Anderson - Los Angeles Dodgers
INF Ian Desmond - Washington Nationals
INF Daniel Murphy - New York Mets
OF Colby Rasmus - Houston Astros

Keep in mind that David Price, Gerrardo Parra, Johnny Cueto, Yoenis Cespedes, Tyler Clippard, Marlon Byrd,Austin Jackson, Scott Kazmir, Joakim Soria and Ben Zobrist are not eligible for qualifying offers after being traded during the middle of the 2015 season.

ICYMI: The Greatest Home Run in MLB History?

In case you missed it quite possibly the greatest home run in Major League Baseball history was hit on this day in 1960. It was not hit by a member of the New York Yankees but against the New York Yankees as Bill Mazeroski hit the home run that ended the 1960 World Series. The Yankees were devastated and the Pirates and Mazeroski went down in Major League Baseball History. Enjoy.

Watch the entire game from start to finish above, your boss won't mind. I promise.

This Day in New York Yankees History 10/13: Zimmer Apologizes

Yesterday in this day in New York Yankees history the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox had their brawl in the ALCS that resulted in Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martinez throwing Yankees bench coach Don Zimmer to the ground. Zimmer apologized to the media and the fans on this day for his part in the incident.

Also on this day in 2001 the Yankees staved off elimination by beating the Oakland Athletics and Barry Zito 1-0 behind a beautiful pitching performance by Mike Mussina. The only run scored was a fifth inning home run off the bat of Jorge Posada and the game was saved by the now famous "flip" play by shortstop Derek Jeter.

A Bad Feeling About 2016

I want to be optimistic about next season. I really do. This is especially true after the team got my hopes up in the 1st half of the season, only to stumble into the Wild Card game. It also doesn't help that I'm not a patient person. But, alas, I don't have a good feeling about 2016.

"I've been looking through this thing for hours, and I still don't see anything good."

While there are teams that were good, and could very well get better next year, the Yankees are not one of them. Let's face it... the team is unlikely to change.

Let's start by taking a look at players that are either under contract or team control, and will probably be regulars in the starting lineup....

Catcher  - Brian McCann
1st Base - Mark Teixeira
3rd Base - Chase Headley
Shortstop - Didi Gregorius
Left Field - Brett Gardner
Center Field - Jacoby Ellsbury
Right Field - Carlos Beltran
Designated Hitter - Alex Rodriguez

The only position that's not set right now is 2nd base, and while anybody would be better than giving Stephen Drew another 428 plate appearances, chances are it won't make much difference.

Drew's bWAR this past season was 0.3, while Ben Zobrist had the highest bWAR among upcoming free agent 2nd basemen at 2.9. For argument's sake, let's say Zobrist would be worth 3 more wins thanks to the upgrade. That would give the Yankees 90 wins, which would probably not be good enough to win the division, leading to another winner-take-all Wild Card game.

No thanks.

Speaking of improving at one position, and the team getting better, you have to assume the other eight hitters produce like they did this past season. That's no certainty.

Carlos Beltran's poor 2014 season for the Yankees was easily his worst since 2005, which could simply mean it was an aberration. But the guy will turn 39 in April. I don't think his best case scenario next year is to be better. No, his best case scenario is to simply not be to be any worse.

Then we have Alex Rodriguez, who may be healthier now than he's been in years. Along with that he might not be as dumb as he once was, either. But you know what would be more surprising than his 2015 season was? Him having a better 2016 season. Again, like Beltran, his best case scenario for next year is probably that he doesn't get worse.

Next we have Mark Teixeira. Sure, Mark is not exactly old, as he'll turn 36 in April. Then again, he's far from being part of the Yankees' youth movement. So I can't really buy into that 146 OPS+ continuing for another season. Mark's slugging percentage was over .500 for the first time since 2009, and that's easily where the largest chunk of his value comes from. If that power goes back to the 2010-2012 levels (average SLG of .484), then we're going to hear much more about his defense next year than his offense.

When it comes to players that are unlikely to improve next year, you can add Brian McCann, Brett Gardner, and Didi Gregorius.

McCann's OPS+ of 107, while better than the 93 he put up last year, was still pretty darn low for him considering the fact that it was 118 the year before joining the Yankees. That might make you think he could be better, but it's hard for me to believe somebody on the wrong side of 30 is going to get better. It's possible, but hard to count on.

Gardner's OPS+ of 105 was lower than the 110 he put up in each of the previous two seasons, but he's actually older than McCann is. Brett's game relies on his legs, and in case you aren't aware, a person's legs tend to get worse as they get older... not better.

I'm a fan of Didi Gregorius, but that doesn't mean I'm fooling myself into thinking he's a future All Star. Despite Yankees fans generally being pleased with their new shortstop, Didi's OPS+ was still only 90. His batting average of .265 was well above the .226 he had in 2014, while his slugging percentage was about the same (.370 vs. .373). So the only place I can see him getting better is in the on-base percentage department, which won't do a whole lot of good when he's hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

But it's not all bad. I believe Chase Headley and Jacoby Ellsbury can hit better.

"I knew he couldn't stay negative for long."

"Hold on, buddy."

The days of Headley finishing in the top 5 of MVP voting are long over with. So while he could improve upon that 92 OPS+ he had this season, it likely won't get much higher than the 101 he put up in 2014. At the same time, there's a good chance Ellsbury's OPS+ is better than the 84 he put up this year, but will probably not get any higher than the 110 he put up the previous season.

So you can take that smug look of yours and... use your imagination.

I think that about covers the offensive side of things. So how about the starting rotation?

The good news is that the starting rotation for next season already has plenty of options... Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, Ivan Nova, Adam Warren, Bryan Mitchell. Yeah, I said it has plenty of options. I didn't say those options make for a strong rotation.

I will admit to feeling pretty good about Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino. However, those guys are not a strong 1-2 at the top of the rotation. Don't get me wrong, they aren't bad up there, but you have to wonder what will happen with Severino after the league sees him a little more. Plus, Tanaka's strikeout rate went down quite a bit (9.3 K/9 in 2014 to 8.1 K/9 in 2015).

Despite having an ERA of 5.80 in the second half, I think Michael Pineda should be a solid starter next season. Will he be a #2 like some of us thought going into this season? I'm not holding out a ton of hope. But I believe he'd make a really good #4.

Those three guys would make me comfortable in the 2-4 spots in the rotation, but as of now we're looking at 1-3. Which leaves the last two spots for Sabathia (2015: 4.73 ERA), Nova (2015: 5.07 ERA), Mitchell (5.13 ERA in his MLB career, and only 3 starts), Eovaldi (has given up 10 or more hits per 9 innings in his past two seasons), and Warren.

I'm going to give Adam Warren his own paragraph, because he may very well be the only player on the 2016 Yankees that actually helps make the team better. Adam's got a 3.98 ERA in 20 MLB starts. Now, his strikeout rate is a tad low as a starter (6.4 K/9), but I think it may be time to see what the guy can do. Heck, he's already 28 years old, so it's time to put up or shut up with him.

Oh, and speaking of pitcher, I loved reading about Jeff Samardzija. Not because I think he's awesome, but because the Division Series has just started. Let's at least wait until the World Series is over before we start spreading rumors around.

The fact of the matter is that unless Brian Cashman is able to trade away an outfielder to open up a spot for somebody like Jason Heyward, along with making room for even a Jeff Samardzija or... oh would this be nice... David Price, then you're unlikely to see me be very optimistic before Opening Day.

I'm sure to try, as the Yankees may only add another reliever or two, but a stronger bullpen is not going to turn this team from one that barely makes the postseason to one that is a true World Series contender.

"So, Mr. Cashman... are you up to the challenge?"

2015 Yankees: Rob Refsnyder MiLB Highlights

Mostly from his time at Double-A with the Trenton Thunder